Discount Double-Tweet

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.56 Trillion
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Higher Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher Low, Higher High)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Over 18-day SMA)

Yesterday, at the end of the day, we said we had run into "a monkey wrench" counting a fifth wave, and had our eyes on the ECB meeting results to be announced this morning. Draghi dumped a whole pile of cash into the system, with a lowering of the key rate further into negative territory, at -0.5%, and with re-implementation of QE to the tune of €20 billion per month as he retires.

U.S. stock index futures anticipated it over night, ran into the upper daily Bollinger Band, traded higher on fake tariff news, sold off on retraction of the tariff news, and then bounced around with some indexes making marginal new intraday highs - before closing off of the highs. At the end of the day, the slow stochastic of the daily ES chart (below) remained embedded. The 18-day SMA had a confirmed bull cross over the 100-day SMA.

ES Futures - Daily - Slow Stochastic Still Embedded

AAPL stock opened higher today and closed lower, after making at least part of a throw-over of it's potential diagonal trend line.

AAPL - Daily - Part of Throw-Over of Diagonal

Please remember that all potential diagonals can also be their triple zigzag counterparts (w-x-y-x-z) as three upward zigzags are clearly required in every diagonal, and, so, there is nothing that rules out AAPL as an Intermediate (B) wave higher. But, the chart is interesting, and for the diagonal (v) would need to remain shorter than (iii).

Neither the DOW nor the S&P closed their daily gaps from late July. The indexes are trying hard. For those of you who like such things, here is an exercise in Fibonacci, which I found interesting on the Dow half-hourly chart. So far, no one else I know of has mentioned it.

DJIA Cash Index - Half Hour - Two 1.618 Waves

In the chart, a wave ((v)) is very nearly 1.618 x ((iii)), and ((iii)) is almost exactly 1.618 x ((i)). And wave ((v)) is greater than wave ((iii)) which is greater than wave ((i)), and wave ((iv)) overlaps wave ((i)) and is longer than wave ((ii)) without traveling below the low of wave ((i)).

Predictable? Not so much. But, expanding is the mode the ECB went into today. Will the U.S. FED, which was the last to cut interest rates, follow suit next week? Time will tell.

Have a good start to the evening,

TraderJoe