Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Droning On - 3

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.57 Trillion
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Higher Close: Outside Day Up
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher Low, Higher High)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Over 18-day SMA)

Today was FOMC day. The FED decided to cut by one-quarter point. The endless stream of "free" money (sic) continues. At one point the Dow was down -250 points. At that point we issued a comment showing the wave count downward as only (w)-(x)-(y): a complex wave - probably a minute ((b)) wave, as shown in the chart below. See yesterday's comments for more detail.

ES Futures - Hourly - Complex Minute ((b))

At that point, the market reversed, headed higher and made a very nice impulse wave upward. Here is the count on that wave on a one-minute chart.

ES Futures - 1 Minute - Impulse

Note the clear 1.618 extension within the wave, the alternation between waves two and four, with two being a zigzag and four being a flat, and, then, the near equality between wave ((5)) and wave ((1)). And this was on a (gulp) one minute chart.

The market should retrace for a second wave, and follow that through with a few further upward waves in what should the minute ((c)) wave of the Minor Z wave within Intermediate (B).

Even though the count was exactly correct at today's low, you will note how few people commented on the value of wave counting. Some want to simply show their ego and their bravado and their ability to express an opinion based on a few facts. Yippie for them.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
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33 comments:

  1. BillySeptember 18, 2019 at 5:10 PM

    Thanks ET. Thought 5 up was also possible but can't count it as per your 1 minute chart because i is longer than circle 1 in time & price. Same on the DOW.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 18, 2019 at 5:36 PM

      ..not if ii is a running flat, and i ended a peak earlier I believe, because iv is a sharp.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderSeptember 18, 2019 at 5:38 PM

      ..also.. just possible ((2)) ending on the 'hesitation' and not the lowest low.

      Delete
    3. BillySeptember 18, 2019 at 5:59 PM

      Ok, kool.

      Delete
  2. Erik BSeptember 18, 2019 at 5:15 PM

    Very nice 1 min impulse indeed!
    Don’t forgett, (ii) of ((a)) still bigger than ((b)) in both Es and cash!
    So maybe a (b) up to 90% or more

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 18, 2019 at 5:39 PM

      ..possible, but not so likely as ((b)) is a complex already.

      Delete
  3. CSeptember 18, 2019 at 6:18 PM

    Cash SPX - could be a 3-3-5 flat correction off yesterday's lows.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 18, 2019 at 6:42 PM

      I don't see it. Really wonder where that comes from.

      Delete
    2. CSeptember 18, 2019 at 8:05 PM

      My bad, I meant off Mon lows.

      3: 2990 - 3006
      3: 3006 - 2978
      5: 2978 - 3007

      Delete
  4. christiangustafsonSeptember 18, 2019 at 6:25 PM

    We have the middle of the current channel around 3044 SPX on quad-witch Friday. 5th wave? Will watch for a corresponding low @ support on the $VIX chart.

    This is in the neighborhood of the 2.618 fib extension up of the entire 2008 crash (910 pts).

    Good luck to all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 18, 2019 at 6:46 PM

      Huh? What about the degrees of the waves involved? Can't count 1-2-i-ii b/c the ii would be longer than 2 which would be a degree violation for five up.

      Delete
    2. christiangustafsonSeptember 18, 2019 at 7:12 PM

      From the 2834 low, the waves look like triplets to my eye.

      The pink upper TL is from the 2872 high in January, 2018.

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 11:33 AM

      @christian .. "triplet" waves only occur in a diagonal, and then wave four would have to overlap wave one.

      Delete
  5. CSeptember 19, 2019 at 9:43 AM

    MSFT over the top. Very impressive.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CSeptember 19, 2019 at 10:06 AM

      Probably doing an ED from Dec lows. Invalid time wise if no top before early-mid Oct.

      Delete
  6. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 10:41 AM

    SP500 cash has nicked through the 12 Sep high. Not the Dow, yet.

    ReplyDelete
  7. CSeptember 19, 2019 at 11:17 AM

    Either 5 up now completed from yest lows or today it did a higher B wave.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 11:23 AM

    ES has another 1.618 wave up, as in the chart below.

    https://invst.ly/ccbei

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 11:25 AM

      ...notice how you do not see the overnight 0.618 retracement in the cash market - a fully 20+ handle move. Yet another "invisible" wave.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 11:37 AM

      ..now over the high in likely a 'b' wave of ((4)), for alternation with the sharp ((2)).

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 11:43 AM

      here's the higher high, and I've added the Elliott Wave Oscillator so one can see it is likely confirming a third wave "of some type", either a iii or a c, higher, with the higher peak compared to the first peak.

      https://invst.ly/ccbpm

      TJ

      Delete
    4. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 12:35 PM

      ..and now the touch on the lower channel line

      https://invst.ly/ccckf

      TJ

      Delete
    5. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 1:37 PM

      ..possibility for 'five down' on 1-minute chart

      https://invst.ly/ccdhr

      TJ

      Delete
  9. AnonymousSeptember 19, 2019 at 1:48 PM

    My data shows that low of i down and highest part of iv both were 3019.25. Would this not be an overlap? Perhaps just my data? Tradingview.
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 1:53 PM

      Grey .. new trading problem: regular size ES contract shows what you show. Micro sized ES shows no overlap. Pick-yer-poison.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 1:55 PM

      ..also.. Motivewave software calls it "tie goes to the runner"; impulse.

      Delete
  10. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 2:01 PM

    Now into five-waves-up off the lows..low must hold for the fifth wave ((5)) up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 2:10 PM

      Here's an updated chart. Wave ((4)) fell back to horizontal support (orange dashed line), and is 55% the length of wave ((3)) - quite deep.

      https://invst.ly/ccdxs

      Would not be a good idea to see the wave ((4)) current low exceeded lower for an up count. The deep fourth waves likely mean the market is getting weaker.

      TJ

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 3:34 PM

      ..prior low exceeded .. not good

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 3:54 PM

      ES futures now have downward overlap on this morning's first wave up. The market is not impulsing at this time.

      Delete
  11. CSeptember 19, 2019 at 4:00 PM

    Shanghai in a completed 5 waves up from Aug lows will put a big weight on any advance, at the moment..

    ReplyDelete
  12. Elliott_TraderSeptember 19, 2019 at 4:51 PM

    A new post has been started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete

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