Mama's Got a Squeeze Box

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.56 Trillion
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Lower Close: Yin-Yang Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher Low, Higher High)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Over 18-day SMA)

The ES futures were slightly higher over-night, but did not make a new all-time high, and sold off before the open of trading, closing with a lower close. The daily slow stochastic is still embedded. In the cash market for the S&P and the Dow, the higher high was not (yet) seen. Imagine that: another invisible wave in cash. Here is the short term picture of the DOW cash on the 30-minute time-frame.

DJIA - 30 Minute - Triangle?

Clearly, the market was squeezed within a range today on the light volume. Therefore, we might expect a higher high on Monday. The Elliott Wave Oscillator is also nearing the zero line and may be indicating another fourth wave. The triangle may not be fully formed yet. There is room for some wiggle, but it is not required. Is it possible futures are making a diagonal while the cash makes only a triangle and a fifth wave? Plausible.

Below is chart showing the ES volume below price. This is what I mean by light volume. Compare today's volume bars to the previous two days.

ES Futures - 15 Minutes - With Volume

Light volume is often a sign of a triangle or diagonal until they breakout to the upside on a bevy of higher volume. Yes, there is a way to see the market as having topped today, however, there is both insufficient downside price, and insufficient downside speed to draw that conclusion. Further, a contracting diagonal in the futures was counted out live in yesterday's comment section, so it 'may' be an ending wave downward, and prior lows were not broken (see yesterday's comments if you have interest). Time will tell.

So, for now, keep in mind the FED meets next week, and have an excellent start to your evening and to your weekend.

TraderJoe