Poor Close

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.58 Trillion
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Lower Close: Long Legged Doji
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher Low, Higher High)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Over 18-day SMA)

The ES futures were marginally higher overnight. We were able to count only three waves up in the futures from last night's 3 am ET low. When we started looking for the 'c' wave of a fourth wave down, the low approached 55%, of the third wave and we said that if prices went any lower it would not be good. They did go lower and unquestionably overlapped the initial wave up. By day's end, the market made a long-legged Doji after the FOMC interest rate cut, and settled for a lower close.

In the process, the S&P500 cash market did close the gap at 3,020.97, but not the one above that.

SP500 - Daily - Gap Closed

The next cash gap up is at 3,025.86, the close of the all-time-high candle. In the process, AAPL closed its downward gap, as well.  My wave-counting outlook has been changed from just "neutral" to "neutral-to-negative", as it does not appear we are impulsing up just yet (that can and might change tomorrow, but we won't predict) and nothing in my outlook is to be taken as trading or investment advice.

The Dow, cash, did not close its gap at 27,349.10 and it did not make a higher high over it's September high either today.

The short term count is muddled: there are ways to count portions of triangles, flats and or diagonals. A small further down wave here 'could be' a flat second wave, but not below yesterday's FOMC candle's low. And today "could" be counted as a Z wave failure, but again, there is insufficient downside price movement to draw that conclusion yet. The ES daily slow stochastic is still embedded as of the settlement, yet a new daily high was not made over prior September highs. That's where the neutrality comes from.

It might be that the market is waiting for Brexit, Tariff or Chinese-economic news to start something significant. As it is right now, daily closes are just riding the 5-day SMA. You might like to plot that one for yourself.

I thought it would be worthwhile to add that Microsoft announced yesterday a $40 billion stock repurchase plan (see at this LINK). That's not just change for ice-cream, Mr. Softee.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe