ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Higher Close: Yin-Yang Candle
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Neutral (Higher High, Lower Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Over 18-day SMA)
The futures were higher over night, and lost all of that by the open. They then traded down to 2,982 - just shy of the 18-day SMA which is at 2,980 before rallying most of the day to settle at 2,998. It's a weaker day in terms of a lower low day, but a stronger day in terms of the close. Very mixed. The ES daily slow stochastic did lose its embedded status by the close, and this needs to be monitored to see if remains so.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Lose Embedded Status on Settle |
So far, the potential B wave triangle in the ES has not technically invalidated, but it has in the Dow unless it becomes a wider triangle. The daily Bollinger Bands are beginning to curl in again, and this may indicate further consolidation of some type, which we think is a minute b wave of some type.
Nothing overall has changed. We are looking to finish the minor Z wave, upward. Sometimes, being the last wave in the set, Z waves have a propensity to truncate. So, we'll keep an eye on it.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
I think even a larger diagonal (30 min) on gold is in the offering.
ReplyDeletediagonal does not look right any more. possibly 3 of c now.
Delete1543 could be 1 of a diagonal but need to sit back for a while.
DeleteES price has crossed back down over the threshold, the level of wave minute ((a)), again, as needed for a larger triangle or larger minute ((b)) wave.
ReplyDeleteWhy isn't the intra-day action over the past 10 days for the Industrials and SP500 not a 5 wave down (i) (Thursday week ago high, last Wednesday low) followed by a failed partial recovery rally (ii), and now breaking down in what could be a (iii)?
ReplyDeletePull up a daily of NQ futures. Think WXY from early Aug low. Smaller WXY up within larger Y. Have now moved down to overlap both larger/smaller degree Ws. Two shooting stars at top area. Just one perspective.
ReplyDelete(could be working on an exp. diagonal as well I believe).
Delete5 down from HOD on cash?
ReplyDeleteIf you're counting VIX, it may have completed 5 down from Aug 28. Was keeping an eye on that as another clue.
ReplyDeleteTriangle scenarios have become increasingly unlikely this morning, leaving the larger minute ((b)) wave - back down to prior support at 2,930 to 2,940 level in cash as best scenario. And, as I have said before (not 'after' the fact), a truncation in a Z wave is always a possibility.
ReplyDeleteAt what level does the SP have to hit on the downside before we can say the counter-trend B-wave rally off the Christmas lows is over (should the top already be in?) Thanks in advance of any answer.
DeleteIf we are done, 2900 will fall today or in ES overnight. Simple.
ReplyDelete..just as 'simple' as your "I can tell you for sure we are going higher because the market held round number support of 3,000". And, just as wrong!
DeleteNo 1.62 extension and can't be nested 1-2 down.
ReplyDeleteIf we can use XLF as a guide it looks like it just made a nice looking LD off the top from last week.
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete