Impeachment News

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.62 Trillion
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Lower Close: Outside Candle Lower
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Down (Lower High, Lower Low)
Daily Bias: Down (Settle Over 18-day SMA)

Yesterday, we had noted that the slow stochastic of the ES Daily was no longer embedded. Often, not always that portends that price and the 18-day SMA will try to come together. They did not yesterday. They did today. Today the daily swing line changed to down (for now) as there are lower lows and lower highs. And today's bias ended lower at the settle as price settled under the 18-day SMA.

ES Futures - Daily - Bias Down

Today shows a way that the Intermediate (B) wave could have ended it's upward travel. Is it for certain? No. But, if so, the Z wave would have ended in a truncation. The alternate is that the minute ((a)) wave of minor Z ended at the very early September high, and we are in a minute ((b)) wave flat. However, the alternate now "requires" higher high days, and therefore it will not be counted until there are higher high daily candles. That is a very simple instruction.

The orange dotted line on the chart is the potential horizontal support provided by the combination of prior highs and low and  the daily Bollinger Band. It 'could' be a stopping point for a minute ((b)) wave, but that is a "wait-and-see".

Since the daily slow stochastic is not indicating over-sold conditions at this time, it may be that the so-called "Smart Money" will target the lower daily Bollinger Band. That, too, remains to be seen, and it is in no way trading or investment advice. Ira's guidelines also indicate that since today is an outside day down, then the high of an outside day down should not be taken out in the next two trading days (Wed or Thu) or breaking the high would be considered a "bear trap".

Similarly, the 18-day SMA may provide some resistance to the upside, and a "battle at the line in the sand" certainly can also be an expectation. 

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe