Monday, September 16, 2019

Droning On

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.56 Trillion
ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close: Yin-Yang Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher Low, Higher High)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Over 18-day SMA)

On Friday, we said that there was a possible way to count a top, but there was insufficient length downward to do it. Today, with the price movement after the drone strike in oil territory, there was both more downward length, and an overlap as well. Here is the chart of the ES 30-minute futures.

ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Gap and Compression

As we have noted before, prices are very, very compressed. And there are waves and price highs in the futures that don't even show up in cash (invisible waves). So, we do the best we can under these circumstances. On Friday, we said we counted a diagonal down. We did. It was a "leading" diagonal and not an ending one.  At the moment, we are intentionally being conservative in wave counting, and saying that the overnight futures gap down and waves are only c = 1.272 x a. It is possible a pre-FED triangle or a downward diagonal is forming. It is also possible, this down wave is a "((b))" wave of the final Z leg of Intermediate (B), which means a "((c))" wave up could follow.

In case it was not clearly enough presented, this would be a LINK to the chart showing the triple zigzag as Intermediate (B).  Nothing says the Z wave is over yet.

Yes, it's really a messy count. That's what happens when the market is not clearly impulsing in defined  waves. We'll continue to do the best we can and remain flexible, calm and patient.

Have a good start to your evening and your week.
TraderJoe
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21 comments:

  1. Tom ESeptember 16, 2019 at 10:31 PM

    Thanks Joe. Isn't the "b" wave in this latest move down, too small relative to the internal waves of the leading diagonal "a" wave? Also, the "c" wave looks like only 3 waves. The gap down, first part of "c", looks like a third wave. I wonder if this can be counted as an impulse. Perhaps LD "a" is a 1-2, i-ii structure?

    ReplyDelete
  2. noviceSeptember 17, 2019 at 9:35 AM

    Joe, what are the odds that the down move from Sep 13th high 3026/2983 was impulsive wave 1 or A:5/ZZ e.g. 3026/3024/3012/3021/2983?
    Within this:
    3rd is 3024/3021/3023/3013/3018/3012
    5th is extended 3021[-3014-3018-3009-3013-]/3006/3013/2987/2983

    Sorry, I have yet to figure out how to upload an image in the comments section.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TJSeptember 17, 2019 at 9:47 AM

      you can't upload, create an imgur account, upload on it, then paste the link here.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderSeptember 17, 2019 at 9:48 AM

      You can only provide a link to a picture you have stored somewhere on the web. Sometimes free 'picture sharing' sites work.

      Delete
  3. noviceSeptember 17, 2019 at 9:37 AM

    typo - should read:
    5th is extended 3021[-3014-3018-3009-3013-]/3006/3013/2987/3000/2983

    ReplyDelete
  4. TachyonSeptember 17, 2019 at 10:39 AM

    Hesitation at the round number 3K level is a dead give-away. I doubt we have a top.
    The primary driver of price in these markets is Central Banks, and not herd sentiment imho. If I am correct, we will see a new high.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 17, 2019 at 11:02 AM

      Oh, we have "a" top. It may only be minute ((a)) of Z, but it is a top of some degree.

      Delete
  5. Elliott_TraderSeptember 17, 2019 at 12:25 PM

    Here are some thoughts in the futures (including the overlap in the overnight) for a wave that is taking quite a long amount of 'time'.

    https://invst.ly/cb78v

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 17, 2019 at 12:29 PM

      ..'could' all be part of a larger pre-FED triangle. Doesn't have to be but a triangle has a clear invalidation below 2,993. It is great to have clear invalidation points. It's a great assist to wave-counting.

      Delete
    2. TjchuckSeptember 17, 2019 at 12:40 PM

      TJ,

      In your chart above it is close but seems like (B) to (C) of the triangle is longer than all of a up towards the triangle. If so that would be a degree violation.

      TJchuck

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderSeptember 17, 2019 at 1:05 PM

      'possible', but what if ((B)) had a failure fifth wave?

      Delete
    4. Elliott_TraderSeptember 17, 2019 at 1:18 PM

      ... like so?

      https://invst.ly/cb8aw

      TJ

      Delete
    5. TjchuckSeptember 17, 2019 at 1:19 PM

      Never thought of it that way...thanks

      Delete
  6. AnonymousSeptember 17, 2019 at 1:24 PM

    Joe-
    Isnt your wave 4 of exp diag "a" a flat? Thought it had to be a zigzag. Am I misreading?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 17, 2019 at 1:47 PM

      hey Grey .. no, according to broker quotes they are two equal highs. Possible you 'can' call it a flat. Can also call it a zz and not break the rules. In that case, the high is the b wave of an overall triangle of the (b) wave of a zigzag.

      Delete
  7. Elliott_TraderSeptember 17, 2019 at 2:10 PM

    Now up and over the current ((D)) wave; 3,005 is about the last chance for a 'wider' triangle as it is the 78.6% level; then a new ((E)) must cross down back under 'a', which it has already and must hold the ((C)) wave low.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Elliott_TraderSeptember 17, 2019 at 3:47 PM

    Now up and over ((B)) wave of original triangle. Triangle proven.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Erik BSeptember 17, 2019 at 4:16 PM

    Nice work ET

    ReplyDelete
  10. Elliott_TraderSeptember 17, 2019 at 4:47 PM

    A new post has been started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete

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