Friday, September 27, 2019

Tariff Tweet Terrifies Ticker

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.63 Trillion
ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Lower (Lower High, Lower Low)
Daily Bias: Down (Settle Below 18-day SMA)

When the White House (Occupant to be unnamed) declared that limitations on investment in China were being considered and that Chinese stocks might be de-listed from U.S. Exchanges (see story at this LINK if needed), the stock market said, "Excuse me", barfed, and headed lower. In the process, the low of two days ago was exceeded lower, and contact was made with the lower daily Bollinger Band. It was pierced a bit, and then the settle was slightly above the band as the "Smart Money" lightened up.

ES Futures - Daily - Minute ((b)) ?

Because of the relative slow decline of this wave compared to minute ((a)) of X2, and minute ((c)) of X2, it certainly 'feels' like this wave is a "b" wave and only part of a corrective sequence. The 100-day SMA is shown as the green dotted line and coincides with the second level of support. There is nothing wrong with prices attacking that level if they wish.

Have a great start to your evening and to your weekend.
TraderJoe



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27 comments:

  1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 27, 2019 at 5:07 PM

    Someday, you'll see.

    ReplyDelete
  2. TachyonSeptember 27, 2019 at 5:48 PM

    Very little being said in MSM about the crisis brewing in the overnight repo market. NY FED is now on a posture of nightly infusions of cash that started at 50 B and now up to as much as 100 B nightly. If banks no longer consider Treasuries "safe" we really are un-charted waters. I think the above wave mapping is correct, with a blow-off top finally arriving next week.

    ReplyDelete
  3. CSeptember 27, 2019 at 7:57 PM

    For those following the bear count on cash:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/1BwsU6Mu

    Roughly 150 10 minute bars for the LD. Gap on daily didn't close yet at 2939 from Sep 5. Under 18 SMA and QQQ with TL break has me leaning bearish at the moment.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 27, 2019 at 8:38 PM

      Yes. That would be correct, except a 3 doesn't count very well yet.

      Delete
    2. CSeptember 28, 2019 at 1:41 PM

      A 3 down from now does seem really soon, barring surprise news. Timing wise, the market will want to wait for the China meeting on Oct 10 before making a major move..

      Delete
  4. Bob_JohnsonSeptember 28, 2019 at 11:53 AM

    Has anybody noticed the wedge on SPX weekly?
    https://imgur.com/jFMGvat

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 28, 2019 at 2:18 PM

      yes, a long time ago. B waves and diagonals form wedges.

      Delete
  5. JohanSeptember 29, 2019 at 4:46 AM

    Could it not be counted as a 5 wave leading diagonal wave 1 on SPX (ugly)? Wave 2 up til Friday, bye bye down Hard Monday october7???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 29, 2019 at 12:10 PM

      How can you - at this point - separate exactly the same waves from a simple A-B-C?

      Delete
    2. TachyonSeptember 30, 2019 at 8:40 AM

      FWIW, price came down to tag top of August trading range from where break-out occurred; very typical after a break-out.

      Delete
  6. CSeptember 30, 2019 at 10:59 AM

    TJ, can you remind me about the rule of how a diagonal cannot follow a diagonal? ED following an LD to make an ABC is that right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CSeptember 30, 2019 at 11:02 AM

      Or LD followed by a subwave that is also an LD. Not possible, right?

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderSeptember 30, 2019 at 11:52 AM

      In general, yes, C. Wave C should not be a diagonal if A is; and vice-versa, for the case of a zigzag.

      Delete
    3. CSeptember 30, 2019 at 12:17 PM

      Thx

      Delete
  7. Elliott_TraderSeptember 30, 2019 at 11:03 AM

    SP500 5-min; Possible triangle, flat or running flat: watch it close

    https://invst.ly/fazx4

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 30, 2019 at 11:05 AM

      ..possible triangle now validated by cross back over ((3)); let's see if it holds.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderSeptember 30, 2019 at 11:27 AM

      Now up and over (d) and (b) waves of triangle; thrust out of triangle.

      https://invst.ly/fb7px

      TJ

      Delete
  8. CSeptember 30, 2019 at 12:53 PM

    Updated bear count on cash is Fri's low was a B. Now in C of 2.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Elliott_TraderSeptember 30, 2019 at 1:16 PM

    Short term wave count getting very, very, very mature.

    https://invst.ly/fcipe

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 30, 2019 at 2:12 PM

      Red wave i, up, of blue (v) at 2,980.63 (cash) has been overlapped downward. This most likely means an upward impulse is completed. Chart below. Watch for "at least" a three-wave retrace of the wave.

      https://invst.ly/fd6je

      TJ

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderSeptember 30, 2019 at 3:02 PM

      ..lower high, lower low and into three-waves down.

      https://invst.ly/fdse6

      TJ

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderSeptember 30, 2019 at 3:51 PM

      "Looks like" five waves down as a diagonal, perhaps an A wave. Will have to be verified. This is the end of the month, so "Window Dressing" sloppiness possible.

      Delete
    4. Elliott_TraderSeptember 30, 2019 at 4:01 PM

      The price lengths are verified to work. The timing is just a bit off - but it may be a very 'short term' diagonal.

      https://invst.ly/fe71n

      TJ

      Delete
  10. CSeptember 30, 2019 at 4:19 PM

    1-2 i-ii possibility lined up in ES from Fri low. Would translate to a shallow 2 in cash

    ReplyDelete

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