Odd for a FED Chair report day, the U.S. equity market as measured by the ES futures had quite a narrow range. This was despite FED Chair Powell testifying on Capitol Hill. Cash SPY gapped open, traded down to try to fill its opening gap, but that didn't work.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Stuck on Upper Band |
ES prices continue to narrowly ride the upper daily Bollinger Band, and the daily slow stochastic has regained an embedded status. Today could be a spinning top candle but it did make a higher high, and there is, as yet, no significant confirming downside confirmation.
The summer doldrums appear to be here, and until there are better signal candles and/or a slow stochastic that closes back under the 79 level - it is what it is. Even given today's pattern a slightly higher high could still be made as the EWO (AO) on the hourly ES was just getting down to the zero level at the end of the cash session with now over 100 candles on the chart for the wave of interest.
In the chart, the next EW resistance figure would come from v = i which does not have to be reached but certainly could.
Have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
This is a true test of EW, while wave counting is running out of more options, street is once again getting bullish on NVDA (unless 5th subdivides more)
ReplyDeleteLooks like a reversal is possibly underway.. slowly
ReplyDeleteES Chart 1
ES Chart 2
ES Chart 3
Again, not my primary, but all the pieces are there.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/CI5Yll1
ES 1-hr: now with 133 candles on the chart, the EWO clearly shows both a second and a fourth wave (circled). Further, the second wave is longer in time than the first, and the fourth in longer in time than the third, and still overlaps the 3rd wave peak.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/15iu9r
This doesn't 'guarantee' anything because the wave could play out on larger time frames, but there might be a substantial pull-back even if it is to start another wave. Yes, it could 'end' the up count, but also might put in the last smaller degree extensions, so we need to watch closely today. And, in all cases, price is still above the 18-day SMA, with an embedded slow stochastic so the bias is to the up side.
TJ
SPY 1-Hr: here is the equivalent in cash, with a suspicious looking structure near the high, and a higher high to verify it.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mVaOhQah/
TJ
4103 to 5613..7.5 months. Should be narrowing now.
DeleteTomorrow is cpi too. It may be lower and spx reaches 5638.
DeleteThe Fed induced mania continues even there are many canaries in the coal mine. MA is finally breaking down from it's massive top. MA's earnings are on the 25th of this month,but they aren't waiting. Doesn't seem to matter whosoever buying this market it continues Worldwide.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/6QwMnNjJ/Screenshot-197.jpg
So it seems the only stocks holding the Dow up are MSFT,AAPL,AMZN,GS,JPM,AXP and maybe a couple of others. The soldiers have deserted. But it keeps on rolling.
DeleteES 90 weeks up resistance 5673
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/YSBmS6rb/Screenshot-198.jpg
ES https://i.postimg.cc/yYRCsckf/Screenshot-200.jpg
DeleteJust for my understanding and correct me if I am calculating and understanding it wrong.
ReplyDeleteSay SPX index is at $5600.00 and Total Spx market cap is $46-48 trillion then in my understanding to move the index 1 point $8,571,428,571,428.6 is required.
5600/48triliion for 1 point move.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_market_cap
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/sp500calculation.asp
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500
Seems wrong to me: using scientific notation $46-48 trillion = 48 x 10^12.
DeleteAnd 5,600 = 5.6 x 10^3. Then, 10^12 - 10^3 = 10^9 for division.
So, 8.57 x 10^9 = 8,570,000,000. Above in your answer would be three too-many zeros.
TJ.
I didn't google how many zeros in a trillion and my mobile calculator ended at 15 digits and above amount was cut copy typo:) But my next question is from where this much $ is being invested. In India, around 88-92, there was a guy called Harshad Mehta who used a clearing delay of debt market funds and inflated stock markets. The institutions were also doing the same but he got into eyes when he paid the highest advance income tax in the country. Hope, nothing going around like this here in US.
DeleteYep. Math nor quite right!
DeleteMoney Market Mutal Funds had $6.4 Trillion in them as of 12/31/2023. Since it only takes $8,5 Billion a point, the more they dump in (because they don't like 4.5%), the more stocks rise. But, then too, Vanguard Equity Mutual funds had about $2.4 Trillion - just that one Mutual Fund group. Add in Fidelity and the banks, and you get my point. Money on the sidelines comes in late, but it does come in. FOMO requires the managers to dump out their cash and make it look like they are in the right things - or they get fired.
DeleteTJ.
The old "bubbles make you look like an idiot before or after they pop".
ReplyDeletePrice consolidation continues. Bearish viverge ves steepen
ReplyDeleteFascinating!
Looks like another level got hit..
ReplyDeleteMES chart
ES 1-Hr: CPI price rise bar has been exceeded lower. Can still be a fourth wave. Caution, patience and flexibility still needed. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSo tired of sp making some sort of expanded flat everytime to keep all of us guessing for last 18 months.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: yesterday, we were working on the hourly chart. But the degree extensions appear to be getting smaller. So, here is the 5-min chart with the lower and lower degrees shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3NfwHkzd/
The channel completion count is in black, the "last gasp 4th wave" count is in red as a very large flat wave.
TJ
Remain calm as it still requires a retrace that does not violate the high. TJ.
DeleteObviously watch for any overlap on sub-micro (1). TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: overlap on sub-micro (1). Big warning. First time in a while.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DtyCVOWJ/
TJ
This should eliminate the Flat, alternate. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: wave Micro (2) has been undercut eliminating the possibility of an expanding diagonal for a larger fifth wave. Watch for outside reversal day, next.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/a9HtU69l/
TJ
SPY 1-min: from what I can see, this lower low gives SPY 1-min a non-overlapping impulse with 163 candles on the chart, following The Eight-Fold-Path Method, including alternation between a failed flat and a zigzag.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yKZZg5VS/
TJ
..and the data appears to show than a daily outside bar did form - by just a tick - so far in the ES futures. TJ.
DeleteDJIA displaying remarkable optimism. Always the same. Distribution at the top!
ReplyDeleteThe Dow isn't as bad as the large triangle breakout on the R2K. The so called good news on the CPI is a mirage I think. The bond market which might spike up on a flight to safety,but will reverse down after. The threat of buffoonery is to great with politicians, I can see massive helicopter money if things deteriorate.
DeleteYes distribution if the last dog is hung.
R2K Daily
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/638jNyXV/Screenshot-202.jpg
The Dow 5 min
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/C1JF9rwn/Screenshot-203.jpg
The Dow could be saved here with another wave up depending on what path the bond takes I think.
DeleteTj,
ReplyDeletePlease could you update your view on gold.
Thanks always
Done. Please see the next day's post which is now up. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.