The S&P500 Cash Index over the long holiday weekend has moved into the Fibonacci confluence zone provided by the 0.786 Extension projection from waves Intermediate (1) and (2), below and the 'external' Fibonacci 1.618 external retrace of just wave (2) - as labeled on the monthly cash chart, below.
 |
| S&P500 Cash Index - Monthly - Confluence Here |
The ES futures are actually tagging the 1.618 external retrace at this time. Because of some length added in this wave, the up-wave count from the October 2022 low reverts back to the Minor W-X-Y count. The larger question now is whether the RSI divergences will hold, or not. If they don't and the market unexpectedly surges, we are still in a third wave, (3), in that case. The count from the X wave appears below on the weekly chart of the ES futures.
 |
| ES Futures - Weekly Continuation - Diverging RSI |
Within the minute ⓒ wave we are currently counting a non-overlapping impulse wave upward. Because of length considerations, the minute ⓑ wave may have taken the form of an expanded flat.
From what I can tell, the X-to-ⓑ trend line is now the one to watch. Remember, at this time, the ES futures remain above the 18-day SMA and therefore has a positive bias. Further, the weekly ES chart is fully embedded. Regular readers of this blog should now be able to generate such charts for themselves after several examples and review that situation.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ, There is a lot of clamor for a blowoff wave up right now. Even by a few Elliott counters. Thanks for the parameters and guidelines.
ReplyDeleteBtw I'm watching BTC,if crypto starts breaking support levels. Maybe that brings in a top.
DeleteSpx today at 5580 is 36% from 4103 October 27, 2023. It is not even 1 year :)
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: given 88 bars already and a likely third wave, this wave will probably play out on the hourly timeframe.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/15hrpu
Patience, calm and flexibility needed.
TJ
Is this ES in a EDT 90 min ?
ReplyDeleteThe Dow 90 minute
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/mrtQj9xb/Screenshot-196.jpg
You probably should refer to an oscillator (EWO, MACD, RSI) to see if you are getting divergence. TJ.
DeleteES 1-Hr: now attacking lower channel boundary. EWO still above zero, though. Local count attempt included.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/15hvrn
TJ
thanks TJ
DeleteJapan futures tonight launched out of a 4th wave triangle and has it's sights on 42k presently up 820 points. Don't know how far it could run or if it could extend. Does it fit where our markets are? To bring in a meaningful top i think most markets will need to top within a day or so
ReplyDeleteI love you the bank of Japan does not even try to hide the shenanigans.
DeleteTilting at windmills. Judgment day approaches...
ReplyDeleteThis market is truly bizzare. ES resistance @5650-60. Europe now confronts Marxists who want to tax at a 90% rate,good luck with that.
ReplyDeleteIs that a impulse off the high in the NDX?
DeleteSPY Cash 1-Hr: here is the cash correlate of yesterday's futures count. First we have a break of a four-five trend line, after a likely triangle and thrust from it (5 min). Second, we have a higher high on RSI divergence.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IXd1g7SN/
Next, let's see if we get gap fill, or more.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ