Well, it got even quieter today. Fewer participants. No one has the energy to comment. Very interesting. I won't rustle the leaves. Here is the daily ES chart in the requested format again, with two changes to note.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Bias Lower |
The first change is that the daily bias looks pretty decisively lower with a further lower-low candle and likely a close below the 18-day SMA (chart is as of the cash close, futures have almost an hour to go).
The second change is that the daily slow stochastic is also headed lower as of this time, but it has not gotten to over-sold territory yet. This suggests that a future price target can be the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The Elliott Wave count has not changed as of today. Still, price can rebound at any time, and this count would remain valid as long as price does not yet trade back over the high.
Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
In this idea, it stop at the trendline and 1.38 extension.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/lIDo4Bu
The crude triangle seems to be working but I would not be surprised with one more minor high.
Seems to be market participation exhaustion on a few levels. Thanks for all your work! Have a great weekend.
It also is true that a-b-1 = a-b-c W, a-b-2 = a-b-c X, a-b-3 = a-b-c Y. This must be the case because the first two legs of an expanding diagonal must be a double zigzag. TJ.
DeleteYep, will be interesting to watch.
DeleteI'm a novice in EWT and I just wanted to say that I find the new format very helpful. Thanks for all you do, TJ!
ReplyDeletewelcome & thx for saying. TJ.
DeleteFWIW, the selloff so far is steeper than any corrective wave within your (c) wave. If Monday is a down day, at 4 consecutive days, it wll be longer than any selloff within (c).
ReplyDeletereally glad to see you are 'getting it' with time as an important factor. Thx for commenting. TJ.
DeleteParabolic rallies are fascinating animals. As an end to a bullish run they entrench bulls in their bullish fervor and intimidate the bears into being convinced the trend change is short term corrective. Enjoy the ride!
ReplyDeleteFyi - did anyone else notice this VIX print on Friday ?
ReplyDeleteVIX Print - Two Different Charting Services
Now, 'usually' the Smart Money will write puts when the VIX gets down to the lower daily Bollinger Band, hoping to get back to the 18-day SMA. They did that - in Spades - on Friday and much more if this print is correct. But the questions remain of "Why?", and "How?" this happened. Was it an effect of the global 'tech' outage?
Anyone else any insights? This print can be seen on more than one site.
TJ
When I went to the 30 minute chart to see what time of the day it happened and it doesn't show it going down.
DeleteThe VIX swoon on Friday happened in overnight trading due to the Crowdstrike glitch that temporarily lead to a bad data drop that was soon corrected in realtime but left in the historical data. So never happened for real, although chart says it did.
DeleteYes, the 15-min chart shows it around 4:30 am.
DeleteVIX 15-min Chart
TJ
Did you mean a VIX move to the upper BB? Seems an outage triggered response would spur protection trades, and a VIX spike. There has been a knee-jerk short vol trade in place for years! 😊
ReplyDeleteWhat I meant was, on that 'daily' chart, the move to the new multi-month low, first, and tagging the lower band, before the extraordinary move up. Stocks were down all day. Why did the VIX make that multi-month low first? TJ
DeleteYeah...that move was dramatic and did look at all organic. Perhaps another "glitch" like the 12' million shares of DJT shorted scan hours prior to a bullet kissing his ear? 😊
DeleteMeant "did not"...
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ