Last night price and the 18-day SMA met by a combination of price dropping and the average rising. There is now a battle going on for control of the 18-day SMA, with FED Chair Powell speaking this morning. The ES daily chart is below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Touch of 18-day SMA |
On a shorter-term timeframe, the SPY cash index appears to have made a diagonal lower and then possibly three waves up to a 38% retracement. This morning's opening gap has already been closed. As far as I can tell, there are no gaps above in the cash market. The SPY 15-min intraday chart is below.
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| SPY Cash - 15 min - Correcting? |
So, things to watch for this morning are a) whether the blue b wave needs to be moved one trough to the right as a Flat wave itself, or b) whether a double or triple zigzag forms for the correction, with the latter being much more rare, or c) whether the structure possibly breaks down to the lows to form a larger Flat wave altogether. Hard to say let's keep an eye on it. Suffice it to say, there would be nothing wrong with a 50 - 78% retrace after a potential diagonal. The key still is whether prices respect the high or not.
Have an excellent rest of the day,
TraderJoe
SPY 15-min: higher high makes 50% retrace, now within the acceptable range for a 1.618 down wave. Can still go higher if it wishes. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: now up to 62% retrace. TJ.
DeleteVery close to that 5,600 level on futures which would weaken the "right look" of the primary ending diagonal count.
ReplyDeleteI think the AI mania tells me this is a cycle top incoming. The stars are aligning.
DeleteOr possibly higher
ReplyDeleteI don't know what that triangular looking structure is in the YM_F daily. I guess we will find out soon enough. The NDX feels like a perpetual 3rd wave since the late October low. Interesting times we now live in,historical.
ReplyDeleteMy chart of the day is Salesforce. Is there a recession coming? It looks like CRM could fill the gap,but it is above little iii so it could be finished. Lot's of bearish charts in the Dow ??????
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NVDA
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Why use the 1 thru 13 count instead of isolating 1 thru 5? Why use w, x, y instead of a-b-c? Also 1 could be an A, and 2 could be B
DeleteI think since were hanging around the highs, it will go and sniff out the 1.618 at 5615.
ReplyDeleteYep. Price continues to solidify gains. I suspect the reversal,when it comes, will be signal.
DeleteES_F 5 minute
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Thanks TJ. A 10 point overshoot in the ES 1.618x , the Dow couldn't get above yesterday's high and Bitcoin has broke the previous low. Japan at a ATH and the vix is divergering. + the lights are out in the oval office.What could possibly bring in a top?
DeleteThe top will be when waves have played out the pattern.
DeleteThanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteI have a basic question:
If there us no QE and BTFP finished in March then from where are the funds coming to inflate the markets.
Inflation also down so not much excess printing going on.
The rise from 3500/4100 to 5600 requires a lot of money. No significant or deep corrections to even use profits to lift the SPX.
How all this is working?
The Federal government has been injecting billions a month into the economy by hiring and supporting immigrants. We do have a 2 trillion dollar deficit and the Fed must monetize that debt. Through purchases of debt that banks hold or Central bank swaps ie the Swiss. I haven't seen any drop in prices. The influx of migrants in certain areas will increase demand for food,housing,and services. It is a election year and let's face it the Fed is political and by hook or crook they will do everything to keep this ponzi going. IMHO
Delete"If there us no QE" How do you know? No monopoly at Fed for QE. It "started" with BOJ in 90s. [And QE anywhere is part of GLOBAL money supply that can GO anywhere.] Total global debt (sov, S&L, corp and household) still growing. = Money Supply growing (check in with Michael Howell). My rough take is that US federal deficits = bonds are being bought by SOMEONE. (Not quite fast enough or TLT would be rising) but last I saw, it was out of the Caymans. Now WHO? (and WHY?) I doubt we're talking price conscious private investors. Maybe cornered political rats out to save their own hides by kicking the can ???
DeleteI'll just throw this out there. I think the market finished something Friday. But is it really done? We could be in a large expanding distribution triangle that runs into August. If that is correct high volatility begins.
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The disconnect between the true economy and the numbers given to us by the FED and BLS has a simple explanation: FRAUD!
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ