The requested format of the daily ES futures chart appears below. Today was an inside bar which - while temporarily changing the local direction of the swing-line to up - has not changed the trend of lower highs and lower lows.
So far, there are four non-overlapping waves down on the above chart from the July all-time high. But to claim a non-overlapping impulse wave, a lower daily low is still needed. As for today it is pretty clear the lower daily Bollinger Band acted as support.
Today was a true inside day with a higher low and a lower high. It was full of whip and fluff but didn't do much except burn time off the clock. It may be a portion of a fourth wave in a non-overlapping impulse but that remains to be seen. So far, price is channeling nicely downward. We need to see if that continues. If it does, the 100-day SMA could become the next target.
Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
Hello. Thank you very much for all the work you do. Thanks to you I have greatly improved my trading by paying more attention to wave degrees as you always insist. I wanted to share my vision for the next few days to see what you think.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/J9PaYi3
I think there is a great risk of going to visit the 5200 in the short term in an extended wave 5 as long as an upward overlap (5542) is not confirmed.
Thanks again and goog luck to all.
That's what I was thinking and the 5 may extend because there was not much extension in 3.
DeleteIf so, it would be a prior (iv)th wave. TJ.
DeletePoll conducted on Twitter by Helene Meisler is highly bullish for next week indicating lots of buyers on the last dip expecting more upside. People are still yawning at this selloff. I agree with the extended wave 5 possibility but I thought the target was 5300 according to typical fib measurements.
DeleteAnd in the area of the 200 DMA....
ReplyDeleteSPX 100 day MA is near 5300.
DeleteSPX 200 day MA is near 5000
4th degree will lead to the end of A or 1 or the target supposedly the 4th of lesser degree is 4950 to 5000. This market is more fractured given the Dow,R2K,Europe and Japan. If the Fed cuts watch out below after maybe a head fake up.
ReplyDeleteThe biggest fracture is equal weighted sp500.
DeleteES_F 2 hour. Do we really know what the count is?
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/3rv9bz9j/Screenshot-220.jpg
looks like there is a correlation between the NDX and Japan on the daily charts.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/QMfcHJmd/Screenshot-221.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/rF4NDRK2/Screenshot-222.jpg
This is how you run a correlation study between the NDX (I chose NQ futures) and the Nikkei so that we don't have to take your word for "looks like". There is a correlation indicator for that.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YmcfbkZV/
The correlation is 0 for no correlation, 1 for perfect correlation, and below 0 for negative or reverse correlation. The colored text boxes cycle through good correlation, weak correlation, negative correlation and back to good correlation. The question is, "So what?", and what does this have to do with Elliott Wave counting?
TJ
Using my counts, With equal weight sp500 overlap (3 down confirmed) and ndx 5 down, that leaves es in the middle, 3 down with no overlap. Russell 25bps off recent high. Seems weakness all from tech. So Joe, does this matter when you look at ES as far as assigning probability that it's abc/123 equivalent now but which is more likely?
ReplyDeletezen meditation on this topic advised me to answer in these manners: 1) by the very nature & definition of 'sector rotation' if there is something being rotated in to, there is something being rotated 'out' of, 2) the bias of the ES is given by the position relative to the 18-day SMA, currently lower, with a target of the lower band. This is a probability assessment only and does not 'have' to happen. 3) One can not 'eliminate' probability from the market. There are too many other players much larger than you, with very sophisticated algorithms. Some of these players are 'market makers' who's very job it is to offset your position.
DeleteTJ
Thanks.
DeleteBeing rejected at the channel line. Would be a nice spot for a 4.
ReplyDeleteusing a 2hr with 116 candles so far.
DeleteOne confusing action today
ReplyDelete..see tomorrow's post which is already up. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ