The daily ES chart in the requested format is below. Today was a big day for the reasons given below the chart.
Occurrences Today
- Price today hit the lower daily Bollinger band - we said before it could be a local target.
- Price today established a swing-line down trend with a lower low and a lower high now below the 18-day SMA.
- Price again closed below the 18-day SMA, keeping the closing price bias lower.
- Downward price today from (3) is clearly longer than wave (iv) and likely makes for a change of degree structure in the waves.
- As we showed at this LINK the upward diagonal was exceeded lower in less time than the diagonal took to build - a key Neely step in post-pattern-confirmation. The expected behavior did occur.
What to Expect
- Today, technically, we only have some or all of three-waves down. So, we still need to use the Principle of Equivalence to count i/a, ii/b, iii/c until there is more wave structure. This is true even though we suspect we are in a real third wave. The market needs to prove that. Otherwise, there are diagonal shapes that could form downward.
- The daily slow stochastic is currently over-sold, so this might be a place where the Smart Money takes some profits at the lower band.
- But if price wishes to give way, the 100-day SMA can be a next target; and it is possible with several days of the slow stochastic under the 20 level that it might embed.
- IFF we truly had the extended fifth wave scenario of (v), above, then extended fifth waves are almost always retraced a minimum of 68%, and many times they are fully retraced (or more).
To continue the downtrend price should remain under the previous swing-line high, shown by the up (green) fractal triangle - which is also the EW resistance at this time.
So have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Still buying the Dow and R2K public has no idea that the bubble has popped WW
ReplyDeleteWe shall see if this gets serious.
thats way too early to be making such a bold statement. We need a clear Elliott Wave topping pattern to confirm such a larger degree top is in play. Even then buying the dips should work till we get into third wave meat of it. Pattern says to me ripper of a rally likely coming soon once this down wave completes in the day or so.
Deleteregarding IWM, KRE is at monthly resistance. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2w2uLs99/
DeleteWell the Dow went up and filled the gap. it looks like a flat B or 2 . Japan I think did 2 of 3 with a nested 1'2's off the top. The NDX and germany might have made their final rally before heading significantly lower. But this market has been buoyant . Take my outlook with a grain of salt.
DeleteTo be honest I wouldn't be surprised to see spy at 550 by Tuesday. The rsi is in the absolute gutter and we're at BBQ and ma support. If we're going to crash harder, I would think a reset comes first but maybe I'm being too optimistic. Today we ended 1:1 between the two waves so I think B or X or whatever is next.
DeleteSo far on es we have 2 waves with no 1.618 extension. So we have and abc of some short or the fifth wave will extend down. No overlap of as of yet.
ReplyDeleteCounting 2nd : or B corrective wave higher.
ReplyDeletebounce could also be a 4th wave.
DeleteWe should know by the close.
DeleteES 2-Hr: as I said in the post, the two sets of wave labels are equivalent until they are not. This is The Principle of Equivalence. A wave-counting-stop is set at this afternoon's high. Try not to 'guess'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DXaJO8ig/
TJ
i wonder how many people understand why the iii/c appeared today rather than another i, ii . well done joe. those who know - know
DeleteThx .. marc. TJ.
DeleteCash SPX closed right at the 5375-5409 June 12th gap.
ReplyDeleteMaybe a diagonal....? Cycles all pointing downwards. HO still on the clock....
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: update as of noon; possible triangle for a fourth wave ('maybe' a diagonal, not sure) .. here's how the wave structure subdivides, so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7WEIp8Av/
Not 'sure' c is over yet, but close. Within 'c', (5) = 1.618 x (3) in an expanding diagonal wave.
TJ
..so the lower wedge line become more important. TJ.
Delete..move has gone far enough to be a flat (even if it fails) rather than a triangle.
DeleteTJ
German DAX and Japan in a EDT so IWS
ReplyDeletesmall triangle in the spx 1 min chart
ReplyDeletethat might have been it.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: there is the impulsive break of lower wedge line. It might be retested upward.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WhEy8FCg/
TJ
More flagging price action in VIX. Have a great week-end TJ and the gang! 😊
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ