LL LC

The ES futures started down in the overnight and kept going through the cash open, making the local pattern of a lower low (LL) and a lower close (LC). This might finish off the minute ⓒ wave of the Minor Y wave of Intermediate (3). But the count is still tentative.

First, what is needed is a retrace wave that does not go over the high, and then a down wave which makes a lower low. They are not on the board yet. Yes, we very well might have finished off the minute ⓒ wave with the wedge count at the high. But there is nothing that prevents all of July from being an awful b wave up, and we could make a dramatic c wave lower as part of a larger fourth wave, (iv). The analyst must be on guard for such an occurrence.

Price came down to touch one possibility for the (iv) to (v) trend line, and it would have done so in less time than the fifth wave took to build. But the break is not decisive yet, even though the close was poor in terms of continuing the immediate uptrend. And the RSI is diverging. But those are only confirmation step #1. So, it is now up to the price action to determine whether or not prior wave markers (such as 5,503) bust lower or not.

Right now, we only have a countable sequence. What is needed is swift confirmation, and the down wave certainly took its time today.

Have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe