The daily ES chart in the requested format is below. Today was much more of the same back & forth expected in a possible fourth wave. But in the after-hours today futures took a knock when earnings came out, particularly MSFT and SBUX. In the late session, futures closed the prior gap up in the futures themselves from Thursday- to- Friday.
The result was the futures again traded down near the lower daily band, remained over-sold, and made a lower low on the day. The lower band is being pushed out wider, the swing-line indicator is still down, the daily bias is still lower, and even the 18-day SMA is beginning to curl lower. Another potential target remains the combination of the 100-day SMA and the lower band.
Tomorrow is Wednesday, there is more economic news out in the morning, and the FOMC statement is scheduled for 14:00 ET, to be followed by the Press Conference at 14:30. And if that isn't enough, it is the last day of the calendar month which may be accompanied by some window-dressing as well as additional earnings reports after the close.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I am wondering if I am doing my usual rush job on the number 4.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/KQbQGnS
Well, it is now definitely longer in time than wave three, alla Neely. TJ.
DeleteMaybe some 4th wave sneak is needed to trap some bulls for a decent size 5.
DeleteTodays low in both cash and futes was unable to take out the 7-25 low. So I still see it as only a 3 wave correction down. I think we are headed to new highs in a couple of the indexes---Maybe not for the Naz. Tomorrows FOMC will likely be the trigger for the rally......Lots of bears so be awares.... ^
ReplyDeleteThis is a corrective move from the low. Chances of an all time high are slim. As I said yesterday C wave up.
DeleteNDX does look like an expanded flat...
DeleteWXYXZ. We're in Y
ReplyDeletenow X
DeleteNope, C today almost done
DeleteMarket (ES) has broken up thru a downtrend line..
ReplyDeletemay spend the next 20hrs doing the backtest to that line before it moves higher---standard TA
That TL has been kissed 5 times. Presently at 5510+ It will probably fail- Stiff resistance
ReplyDeleteIt is already up thru the line
DeleteFor the charting challenged https://www.tradingview.com/x/cbV0DmEP/
ReplyDeleteWith ovelap of 5542 we have many options to sort out.
ReplyDeletei addressed this yesterday with my belief
DeleteAs far as I can tell, marc absolutely nailed it at 09:43 am yesterday. This is the simplest count to deal with as far as I can tell.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/26hXx9ko/
Wave ⓘ needs to be by the vertex point of a parallel. And the flat wave would be best as a correction.
TJ
It is even possible to move (iii) back one or two troughs to the left and wind up with a lower (v) thereby not making a truncation on (iii), only a truncation a b wave down. TJ.
DeleteThat chart has wIII lower than wv.......no good....It is a 3 wave correction lower....thats why you are seeing this strength.
Deletethanks joe, thus yesterday low was B wave in NQ. and we are at my first target for wave 2 completion in all indexes. the SP equal weight matched it ATH to the tick. nvda the driver has maybe 1-2% more to go, and on ES my next targets are not much higher
ReplyDeleteYw..well deserved. TJ.
DeleteI thought if the move down is impulsive and we expect more downside then its doesnt make sense for 5th to truncate..one would excpect truncation of 5th in c or if the whole move is complete and we are expecting a change of course?
Delete@grr .. one can look at it like this if one wishes.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/K7hUPTpZ/
The NQ did not truncate, and the hourly close on the ES is lower than either wave (iii) location. And there is no 'rule' about a first wave not truncating even though it is an 'expectation' that they would not. So, at present I have to go with what seems to fit. I've looked over diagonal possibilities, but a flat is not supposed to be in a second wave position of a diagonal.
TJ
Im always remind myself of how odd that 09-11 wave was because it was fighting the old trend.
DeletePossible end of C wave ?
ReplyDeletehttp://tos.mx/!iqPbnxdU
http://tos.mx/!uiXXbF2i
DeleteAnother chance for ending diagonal.
(iv) turned out to be longer than (ii). That possibility is ruled out.
DeleteReminder: FOMC decision expected at 14:00 ET, to be followed by press conference @ 14:30. TJ.
ReplyDeleteFOMC leaves rates unchanged; still needs more 'confidence'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htm
TJ
Like Lucy, Charlie and the football.
DeleteWith today gap up can we say down move in SPX was a-b-c as there is overlap.
ReplyDeletehttp://tos.mx/!TJsPnRpW
There is one possibility of expanding diagonal downwards.
DeleteET when can we eliminate that, once b is taken out ?
Pls read my comments above from 12:19 & following. TJ.
DeleteYES....thats what I said this morning......unfortunately too many here need something more complex....to ruminate on
Delete@sammy .. the 'flat' would likely break the 'rules'. TJ.
DeleteES 5-min: this was a valid pre-FED triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/p0Y9A6aH/
TJ
SPY 1-Hr: so far, the close-to-open gap in the SPY could not be closed. But, the c = 1.618 x a measurement has been attained. Price is beyond the 50% retrace Fib, but couldn't yet make it to the 62% retrace Fib.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wgSmNUvH/
TJ
ES 5-min: below triangle Ⓔ wave, argues for monitoring the high. TJ.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/08iwUkuD/
DeleteFED gibberish chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TSH7
I prefer to look at the 2 year vs the FFR.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ