This brief update is just to show measurements that the NDX Cash Index on the right is past equality for a wave Intermediate (3) compared to Intermediate (1), as per the monthly chart below. That means that by the rules the NDX simply may not be in a contracting diagonal when measured from the 2020 low.
Meanwhile the SPX Cash (CFD shown) is not yet near equality, nor is the Dow Jones Industrial Average. So, while getting less likely, contracting diagonals are not ruled out for those two indexes.
For the NDX the possibilities are that in an impulse count wave (4) would not overlap wave (1). Or it there should be substantial overlap, perhaps the NDX will go on to make an expanding diagonal instead of a contracting one. Lastly, perhaps the NDX would go back to the 2019 low and make the A,B,C up from there for (1) where it currently is. But that seems the last possibility. we will monitor it though.
Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
Monthly look.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/emk7AdP
IF 1 is the extended wave, then 5 'usually' should not be longer than 3. It is usually 5 < 3 < 1. TJ.
DeleteI don't think it is.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/IuCoodW
In terms of the absolute value of 'points', that appears to be correct. In terms of time and percent, I'm not so sure. Neither Elliott, Prechter nor Neely ever 'explicitly' stated whether to use points or percentage for determining the extended wave over a very long period of time.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0exPq7TY/
TJ
Is anyone else of the opinion that the massive rotation out of Tech into Small Caps has to do with rate cut optimism? Really remarkable if that is indeed what drove the event.
ReplyDeleteTJ what is the Dow doing? I drew in some TL's on the weekly chart and came up with this chart. Wave 4 of (V) would be the pandemic low. This diagonal would end in the 2nd quarter of 2025. Is it plausible? Thanks https://i.postimg.cc/D02yg4vL/Screenshot-208.jpg
ReplyDeleteI have showed the Dow numerous times. Nothing has changed yet.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/12/if-dow-does-over-high-in-2023-or-early.html
TJ
Thanks, TJ
ReplyDeleteMy Dow chart---Looks like a high
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dgiOtWED/
Even an assassination attempt is not a risk for markets.
ReplyDeleteMarkets have been divorced from reality for quite some time. There is an official Hindenburg Omen on the clock with six confirming subsequent observations. Some analysts are now wondering if they missed a bullish EW count that takes SPX to 6K. I think this is a higher degree top than most expect.
DeleteThis is my most bullish count. It would explain the strength that did show up after the running flat, 2.618 is up at 5910. I think the expanding diagonal looks better but it is what it is. I am not confident on any sp500 or es count.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/r9nN1tz
No, no, no. Your claimed smaller degree Ⓑ wave is larger than your claimed larger degree 1 wave. That violates the very definition of degree. See first link below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AdP5cs46/
You would be forced to count the up wave this way - which I don't have a real problem with other than the 'right look'.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nwDpiCQx/
Please check your work for violations of degree labeling.
TJ
..and also, your claimed smaller degree i is larger in price than your claimed larger degree 1. See link below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IVbKINnt/
TJ
Thx for the input. Your first chart and the comment above about an NDX expanding diagonal made me look again at a possible ending diagonal that is taking more time.
DeleteSomething funky is a afoot.
https://imgur.com/t4gYC8y
I believe no degree violations are present.
With both of my errors corrected, that really make a traditional impulse from 3502 a very low probability. Thanks again for the input. I get rusty in the summer. :)
Deletewelcome. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: SPY has a new high this morning. Watching to see what other tricks it knows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/N356LAXe/
TJ
SPY 5-min: now a partial downward overlap trick in a longer wave down than the prior one. Not fatal, but something to watch (i.e. can still be a fourth wave).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CxeCdgnz/
TJ
SPY 5-min: overlap warning #1 is being triggered.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8Y2GxCCX/
TJ
ED?
DeleteSPY 5-min: overlap warning #2 is now triggered.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RQtvAC1n/
TJ
SPY 5-min: prior morning low exceeded lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wttI8H3o/
TJ
@grr .. see below. TJ.
DeleteES 4-Hr: with regard to the prospect for a diagonal, the usual tendency by most analysts is to rush them. So, if one is to play out, I would like to see it on a larger timeframe and also see if it could make the recommended 62 - 78% retraces for the internal waves. Adjust trend lines as needed.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6iQslyaB/
Maybe it would play out with earnings or PCE, etc. But the start would be that this wave would not go back over the high today. If it does, we'll have to consider a narrower wedge.
TJ
ES/SPY 5-min: new low of day & into gap up area. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: gap filled. Had to switch timeframes. This down wave is longer than the prior down wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GAhl3pPG/
TJ
So far, so good. Watch the high and the low in the overnight. That might provide a better clue. So far, we might have a down wave and a flat; and that would need follow-through lower tomorrow. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ