Thursday, May 5, 2022

Slice of Parallel - No Back-test Yet

On the ES hourly chart, prices started lower overnight in a very insidious manner - they just scraped along the 18-day SMA until they failed lower. When they failed, they broke the lower parallel as shown, below.


Often (not always) when prices do this, they back-test the lower parallel. So far, that back test has not happened. It could. The down wave only got to a 78.6% retrace today. At the moment a double-zigzag is on the table, and so is a flat wave to make a larger second wave correction. Those, of course, do not have to occur, but they could in order to make an up wave that is more proportional in time. And such counts might better agree with the current lower Bollinger Band location.

If, for some reason, neither of these forms then the third option is a more definitive impulse lower.

Towards the end of the day, the NYSE adv/dec line maintained its impulsive character at greater than a ratio of 1:7 to the downside. And, again, nothing to the downside will surprise us at this point.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

24 comments:

  1. SPY (2hr) - update

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/hmcy6nc6z0mpmop/spy2hrholding.PNG/file

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    1. ES (5x3) - update

      https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_b0e58e6b9ec8870a8ae3c07e5c663125.png

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  2. BPIs for major indexes - some signs of improvement "under the hoods" -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/2ceo5xsfp1ajyqs/BPIs5-5.PNG/file

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  3. YM (8hr) - Price difference from moving avg (RM and its avgs vs price and its avgs) -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/ui47owqbaz3am7n/YMrmavgs.PNG/file

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  4. VIX - there’s a lot of resistance in the 37 - 41 area. Remember the VIX closes below 40 - 98% of the time. The risk/reward is getting favorable. There maybe 1000 SPX points above us before this bull is finished.

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  5. ES (8hr) -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/8qwlqhrno0gjvfq/ES8hrdiv.PNG/file

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  6. Beans (10x3) - pair of DBBOs

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/rrd6rhtu71an7l4/BeansDBBOs.PNG/file

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  7. Good morning, all. SPY 2-min; opening gap was just closed.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ep2V51Vn/

    TJ

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    1. ...initial retrace was 62%, so it could qualify as a diagonal or nested i,ii up, so far. TJ

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  8. ES 2-Hr chart: price today when it made the low was >90% of the prior low, so this whole thing 'might be' a larger flat second wave in all the volatility. It does not 'have to be' but it certainly measures that way, so far.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/50z4j2Pd/

    TJ

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  9. SPY 2-min; since we have a clear diagonal, then obviously the low is just 'wave-counting-stop' in which we'd have to consider a smaller flat as part of a downwave that started yesterday.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/wSYk2Uur/

    TJ

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  10. I haven't see any discussion anywhere of how the market (at this current price (SPY 410ish)) is battling over a multi-year uptrend line connecting the Sept 2018 peak, the Feb 2020 peak, and the Aug 2020 peak. That could explain some of the violent traps around this level.

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    1. SPY (wkly) line chart does a nice job of highlighting the "cut through" TL :o)

      https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_0036ae7fe9d87e3e4e70659fbcf240fa.png

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  11. SPY 5-min: watching the high and the low.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/0UDgwu9B/

    TJ

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  12. NDX (100x3) Targets cluster -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/l9ktar7jomf5lqr/NDXcluster.PNG/file

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  13. SPY 5-min: has a lower low, and now approaching 62% in more time than the up wave.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/vps6upfj/

    TJ

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  14. Replies
    1. as far as I can tell, this wave 1 down finished yesterday and it retraced today. Into the close should be selling foreshadowing the larger next wave and break of lows on Monday. Also, I follow mostly follow big tech and MSFT just recently lost a major weekly trendline, will confirm at the end of the day.

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    2. wouldnt want to be short monday, we will see

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    3. If btc breaks 35k this weekend, likely it goes much lower and margin calls will happen Monday. Tech/BTC have been following each other for months since they both topped.

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  15. SPY 5-min: currently above the descending parallel. Likely below 78.6% may pose a problem for an up wave.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/xCAGhmOh/

    TJ

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  16. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete