Using the SPY hourly chart - which we have posted before, we see that part of yesterday's action may have been either a diagonal for the blue a wave, or - because the retraces were not 62% - an impulse for the a wave, and then an expanded flat for the b wave. We are showing this second construction on the hourly chart below.
The good news is there is a defined limit on the blue minute ((iv)) wave. Do you remember the limit? In a contracting diagonal blue ((iv)) may not - by rule - become longer than blue minute wave ((ii)). Readers of this blog should use OHLC charts tomorrow to assess this condition. And, yes, blue wave c of ((iv)) may fail if it wants, so that is something to pay attention to, as well.
When the wave ((iv)) terminus is located, and if it holds, then the upper potential diagonal trend line should be redrawn to wherever that location in.
And, if the measurements of a contracting diagonal don't hold up - because wave ((iv)) becomes too large - then we simply accept the measurements - without emotion - and look for the next most likely count. And with the three-wave-sequences currently in place that might wind up being a larger flat wave.
The market keeps challenging us to stay engaged and keep our thinking caps on. Remember, it is only Elliott Wave theory that gives us such clear and concise terminal points to know when we are right or we are not.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks! I have that measured move on my 5x3 for that reason.
ReplyDeleteGot to thinking about Pooldawg's idea. I thought we'd take a look via a quarterly log chart with log fibs. This is meant to be a starting point for discussion, not an ending point. [if interested].
https://www.mediafire.com/view/vr4chjtuoxme7fs/SPXpooldawg.PNG/file
please 'try' to keep in mind that the whole reason I show 2010 as the end of (1) and 2012 as the end of (2) is so that wave (2) is 'longer in time' than wave (1). Do you remember the Neely audio interview where he indicates wave (4)'s are 'often', 'usually' longer in 'time' than their wave (3)'s? The discussion point is how does this chart account for any semblance of time proportion in the waves? The second discussion point is now look at the purported wave 1 & 2. Same problem. They have no time proportion, wave 2 is on the same bar as 1. I have done my best to explain these aspects of wave theory, over & over. I simply can not do it ad-infinitum. Someone else must be able to pick up this ball and carry it.
DeleteTJ
for discussion this is how I think the log channels work. And the rationale for the count, once again.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YJwPLoxe/
I simply see nothing wrong with a Dow [B] wave at 1.618 external retrace with the FED easing like mad.
TJ
I think not considering that as a possibility explains the befuddlement of so many EW analysts by the current price action.
DeleteIf TJ chart is correct. God save us.....things will get ugly
DeletePlaying C waves are glorious events for those who know about them.
DeleteRisk On bounce (or more) for JNK?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/buh0sft7pcde9fx/JNKpositive.PNG/file
ES (5x3) - update
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_65638fc48c747c6e856f12dbd91d3956.png
Along with the NYSE, the DJI is now in Bull Alert status (BPIs).
ReplyDeleteBTC (1000x3) - Observations [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/85suefl2h6tc66h/BTC1000x3.PNG/file
10k and lower looks correct. Bitcoin dominance chart about to go through the roof. Crypto Armageddon
DeleteWhat are your thoughts on your labeled B wave, the one following the flat ending in 2020, being an X wave?
ReplyDeleteThe flat would be W, X ended on Jan 3, we are currently in Y.
Similar; no issues except what to expect on this down wave. In both cases SuperCycle (IV) can become a flat, combination or complex like flat-x-triangle, etc.
DeleteTJ
Reminder to all of the FED minutes upcoming at 14:00 ET.
ReplyDeleteTJ
thanks
Deletewave 4 almost longer in time than wave 2
ReplyDeleteAlmost! It has about another hour and a half until it (potentially) becomes longer. So if the diagonal is to hold that would mean market should go down only on fed news.
Deletewell, if it heads lower - one possibility is the big dump and v bottom big vix spike plays out in 90 minutes then huge bounce . v also means 5th and it can truncate. other possiblity is rally to 403/423 based on some degree violations on count
DeleteI'm all about a good spike low!
DeleteSPY 15-min: there's a slight lower low from the high: keep aware of potential overlap for a triangle or expanding diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jwzpcAzZ/
TJ
just fyi .. in SPY this downward wave is now longer than the first downward wave in the parallel. TJ.
Delete..my guess is since the DOW did not truncate beyond the high, we may have to consider a truncation (or other diagonal) in the SPY.
DeleteTJ
FDX (2x3) Looks interesting here [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/0z03r7hpzsm882t/fdx2x3.PNG/file
SPY 15 min - after FED minutes - possible truncation in v of (c)? Not sure. There is downward overlap in SPY.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gQjDDztg/
TJ
Hardly seems like price moved too far too fast to cause a (rare) truncation.
DeleteES (5x3) - Testing prior peak
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_c57e032be90caf211e0afa85e7722dea.png
Peak exceeded, negating prior downward vertical/horiz measures as noted previously.
DeleteAs far as I can tell; the Dow has now busted it's potential diagonal. SPY not far from it. Possible wave 4 is a triangle?
ReplyDeleteTJ
if counting down should turn here es 3991
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ