Today is likely a make-or-break day between a potential "B" wave count and a larger impulse count down. First, a review of this morning's daily chart (before the inflation reports tomorrow) shows a lower low day. This has the potential to continue the swing-line in the down direction.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Lower Low day |
However, one should note the lower low is made against the lower daily Bollinger Band, and this is "often a place where the so-called Smart Money is taking profits from short positions. They may let some of their positions ride lower, but they are likely coming out of at least a portion of their trades." Certainly, to paraphrase Ira, "no new short positions should be opened under the lower band." (This is not trading or investment advice - just a paraphrase of Ira's guidelines.)
Shorter-term, looking at the ES 2-Hr chart, below, we see several items: 1) there is now an approximate c = a, down, 2) the short term downward parallel has been breached to the upside, and 3) last night's down wave currently has a low at the 1.382 external retrace level of the up wave.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Measurements |
So, this is why today might be a make-or-break day. If the market cannot muster even a "(c) wave up" to complete a flat or expanded flat wave, it may be in significant trouble. We'll be watching the inflation report tomorrow with interest.
Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe
ES 15-min: here is some local price structure including daily pivots, given that not even one bar shows up in the cash market yet (lol). Oh well, there is a 'possible' extended first wave scenario since there is only a 38.2% retrace ... provided ...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CM1moX5a/
... provided a larger flat does not form to make a larger correction of the first wave. So, keep an eye on things, and measure, measure, measure.
TJ
P.S. The blue count is equivalent and tentative until we see more.
DeleteTJ
"watching the inflation report tomorrow with interest". Funny pun, given the context.
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DeleteES 15-min: here is a local chart update. With the downward overlap and a 'longer' wave down than the first one, IFF there are higher highs, it suggests that a diagonal 'might form'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xO4eJg7x/
But there are 'currently' only three-waves-up, and another potential failure is plausible, but much less likely if higher highs are made first. Thus, there is this update from the cash market.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4UdMBUmC/
TJ
Good-bye old cash low.
DeleteTJ
Why could this not be a contracting diagonal 5th wave from May 5th?
Delete3950 cash completes MM (basis 25x3 PnF)
Delete@Steven M, there is currently a length violation in wave ((4)) which would be longer than wave ((2)). Wish it were otherwise.
DeleteTJ
Got it. Thanks!
DeleteCrude - 100% high pole, triggering DBBO.
ReplyDeleteSPY (30min) - Let's fill that gap!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/bxw2u3jpdahhxjk/SPY30fill.PNG/file
Has an ending expanding diagonal been considered from the 2016 low? That would make that leg a C wave or 5th.
ReplyDeleteYes, it seems to have "none" of the right characteristics for that. For more, you'd have to show what you are thinking in a chart.
DeleteTJ
JC, Hope you see this. I was wondering how you made out with Ira's team regarding the stochastic readings. He has been making comments about glitches his charting system and I think there was one affecting stochastics because all of a sudden his readings agree with mine using the linear format. I also wanted to ask if you have taken his advanced Bollinger Band course and if so, ask your opinion.
ReplyDeletePittsburgh Tom, first, I have taken the BB course and, for me, I found it quite useful. I thought it was definitely worth the money. As for the SS, I wrote an e-mail and he and I exchanged a few e-mails back and forth. I screenshot my thinkorswim settings page for the SS. There was still confusion on my part afterward though. I still think he is using a 14,3 setting with exponential instead of simple moving average. In fact,the exponential setting I have no doubt about since he mentioned it to me months ago when we were communicating back and forth. It is the actual settings on the %k and %d where some of my confusion arose. On thinkorswim platform, as best I can tell, the 14 period moving average is the default. I also looked at stockcharts indicator page for the calculation of SS. After reviewing all of this, I believe Epstein is using a 14,3 with an exponential computation of the moving average. Best I can do as of right now. Hope this helps.
DeleteJC, thank you so much for the response. I have been considering the advanced BB course so I do appreciate your input. As for stochastics, I viewed his end of day video last night. However he did not scan back as he sometimes does so I couldn't get actual previous closing numbers, however my readings for the current after hours action were giving me simple readings in the 8 and 16 range which agreed with his. When I switched to exponential the readings were quite different and did not agree.
DeleteThanks again
I think Ira uses slow stochastics with %D = 5 and %K = 3.
DeleteAt least he said some times in his Youtube videos that "the difference between the two lines [of the Slow Stochastics] is that one is calculated with a 3 day average and the other with 5 days average"
In my emails to Ira, I initially thought the same. However, when I tried what you suggested, the readings didn't appear to be that close to what his readings were showing. When I look at stockcharts and their breakdown of how the slow stochastic is computed, the slow %K is the fast %K (which = the %K basic calculation). Stockcharts uses a default look back period of 14 periods. The slow %D = 3 period sma of the slow %K. Here is where Ira uses an ema rather than a sma. When I showed him a screenshot of my thinkorswim settings, which had a 5 for the %K and a 3 for the %D, he said that "he didn't see the 14 level for how many days the moving average is". My understanding is that the %K is the one using the look back period, in the case of stockcharts, it is 14. There obviously is still some confusion.
DeleteRBOB - (0.025x3) Current
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_988a32384a22ef5e00f980c69a2698be.png
SPY (30min) Follow up -
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ES (5x3) - current
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We are extremely oversold and hit your MM. we should get a bounce to at least close those gaps. Waiting to see 5 waves up.
DeleteIf the S&P is going to head higher I'd assume energy will continue to lead. Tonight I was looking at DBC and XLE, both are in a strong up trends. Anyone have anything to add?
ReplyDeletei follow those closely im looking for pullback. if we go risk on they will lag. if we go risk off i dont know if they go up.
DeleteXom weekly candle looking like a temporary top for me.
DeleteES (8hr) - in progress?
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Major Indexes - current BPIs
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ES (5x3) Early look -
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CPI was released this morning and both overall and core readings were slightly above consensus estimates. SP futures immediately flipped from +1% to -1%.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
SPX - cash is up, futures down, lol.
ReplyDeleteOops. Forgot my ES is 10min delay. Duh.
DeleteES - has a contracting diagonal "look" to it.
ReplyDeletelooks like a possible Triangle on ES if so E would be done and we go lower.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm seeing what you're seeing, looks like "d" is lower than "b", which would seem to negate triangle as "c" < "a". Maybe I'm missing something.
DeleteYou're right, my bad. I still think this may be 4 though
Deleteflush down this AM was X maybe? then the run up a truncated C?
DeleteSPX (cash) (25x3) - Measured move now reached.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/w4e6fz8osfvuc4g/MMreached.PNG/file
Of note: 3rd touch of falling TL
DeleteSPY 5-min; getting very close to 'five-waves-down' from the turn-around high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ca7JS39m/
TJ
ES (5x3) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_14eecdf0ed95cd47fe215655e028ce83.png