I listened to Ira's video last night and, regarding the argument of expoential vs. regular moving averages for the daily slow stochastic, he said, "the ES futures were on the verge of embedding". He was careful to say they did not actually embed. Today, the daily slow stochastic did embed, as per the daily chart, below.
Further, whereas price did not make it to the lower daily band yesterday, it did today. It also pierced the daily declining parallel lower. Then the futures bounced to form a doji candle near the close. The wave count is being a bit of a pain right now. At one point during the day, we got either 'five-waves-up' in the form of a diagonal or a double zigzag, and then the low of the diagonal (or DZZ) was exceeded lower. So, that might have the "(b)" wave of a larger expanding triangle wave in an hourly count like the one below.
We do not know if a legal expanding diagonal will form, or if the three waves down, so far, only represents an intractable overall larger ((b)) wave. What separates the two counts at this time is trading over the minute ((ii)) wave.
We do note that a diagonal is possible with the embedded reading. An perhaps, such a diagonal would get the market more over-sold. That is, note where the RSI finished the day today, "middle of the range".
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ES (5x3) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_b5e7ee719886fea4ceb8d25ba543dd51.png
Follow up -
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ES - trading above 4102 is important over lap of A wave. If we can get there before the bottom falls out.
ReplyDeleteVIX - below 18 dma and testing up trendline.
DeleteES 1-Hr: as of tonight an up wave is long enough in both price and time to be a fourth wave of the potential diagonal shown. This is provided it does not go over the prior wave minute ((ii)).
ReplyDeleteTJ
https://schrts.co/zkbPtXIY
ReplyDeleteNAAIM - is now over sold.
Good morning. ES 1-Hr; a potential diagonal remained viable through the night. The upward retrace is now >62%, ticking another box. We can't 'assume' upward movement is over. We can only note that 'at this time' such a pattern has the 'right look'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PO03u91B/
Remember, the alternate is some kind of '((b))' wave at the low, if a diagonal busts upward.
TJ
ES (4hr) - RM picked up the slack
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McClellan Fin. Pub. - article (via free email)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/investors_intelligence_data_at_bearish_extreme/
RBOB - bullish catapult
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ES (5x3) - update
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Seems "odd" to me that there is no mention of a [possible] abc down from the early year high, ending the correction. While it may not be viewed as the probable outcome, it would certainly seem to be a possible one. :o) Just an observation.
ReplyDeleteI believe so, but is the fifth going to extend lower? Yesterday the percent of stocks above the 20 dma on qqq was 1%. Talk about over sold.
DeleteActually several do see the move off the highs as corrective and only one I know, other than T.J. has called a possible significant top. Some see a 2nd wave, others a 4th wave of high degree. The one analyst I know calling a major top believes we started a cycle wave 4 correction to the downside so that would still be an ABC. The technical indications suggest much more carnage ahead imho.
DeleteAnother possible ABC I like esp with AAPL just starting it's decent. https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_72a0c46cb7f9611806657c9b6ce89df9.png
Deleteterminus of A should really be April 26th I think.
DeleteSeems "odd" to me 'Everyone' (to counter 'no mention') .. was all ga-ga Nassie on the way up. And now, 'no one' talks about the NQ overlap? It's not fatal yet, but what happened to all those fourth and fifth waves?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YVsvkB9u/
TJ
TJ - it appears to me to be a 3 wave move to the high. Now in a B or X wave lower.
DeleteMaybe a triangle in 4..;) e will avoid overlsp
Deletegrr.. the weekly EWO is still red and declining. Further it is "much more" than a -50% of the prior maximum; significantly breaking the guideline of +10% to -40% of the prior third wave maximum for a fourth wave.
DeleteTJ
Hello everyone. I believe my picture is self explained. https://www.mediafire.com/view/yd9snkns25mwsj8/000.png/file
ReplyDeleteHello VaGo .. unfortunately your count is not 'legal' in the Elliott Wave world because diagonals 'by rule' are either made up of zigzags or impulses for their downward waves. a3-b3-c3 is not a zigzag but a complex.
DeleteTJ
..however: BBRider and I are following a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern possibly downward to the same end.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: if this thing holds to the end of the day, it's going to be a bumpy ride down.
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TJ
SPY 5-min: from the high: difficult stuff regardless of wave-counting skill.
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TJ
Now a 62% retrace; good enough for an extended third wave, if the market deems.
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TJ
Does the correction of the downmove of this 5th-wave extension impuls has to overlap with 4 or is a 50/61 retrace sufficient? Is there any rule of such kind for extended waves? Thanks in advance
DeleteThere is no 'rule', but often when the fifth wave is the extension, the retrace is to the prior second wave. This often also represents the 'deep retrace' of a diagonal. All of that is lovely, but it adds a ton of risk to a wave count to go back up to 80 - 90% retraces, as it's not far to go over the top.
DeleteTJ
Though I frequent this blog less than I used to (life is busy!), I have also not seen as much discussion on GC gold futures. I think gold is at a crucial price/time since a seemingly convincing double top (or something very close to double top). Please pardon any errors in my wave analysis/proposals, but without further ado here are my contributions:
ReplyDeleteGC since Aug 2020
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FFMUFHfl/
GC since Jan 2022
https://www.tradingview.com/x/11vOWods/