On the ES four-hour futures, we were able to count another five-waves-down to a lower low. On a much larger timeframe - just so it can be pictured - at the moment there are only a larger three waves down, counted below as 5-3-5.
Other than being able to identify the low today, as (v) = 0.618 x net[(i) through (iii)] to the half-hour, there is not much more we can say about the current wave structure. We can say that it is possible to form either a larger impulse OR a diagonal with these waves. Thus, the trend lines shown are only tentative.
Towards the end of the session a healthy impulse upward occurred, and this could be the start of a corrective wave as some upward overlap has occurred already.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks!
ReplyDeleteES (dly) -
https://www.mediafire.com/view/7mquiayxp8707ub/ESdlyfbo.PNG/file
BPNDX - update [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/2xnrc1vb8dgvoai/BPNDXdb.PNG/file
RBOB - (.025x3) -
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/y1pw2
DJI (750x3) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/7ap4xq3tssvzzxj/DJI_750x3.PNG/file
SPY (30min) Open gap (again)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/0mxd56aw2xjzdev/spy30mgap.PNG/file
VIX (.5x3) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/hx6cvee4nv8yfbk/VIX_.5x3%25282%2529.PNG/file
👍 28 level needs to hold for bears.
DeleteSPX(cash)(25x3) - Prelim.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/e3ghnguable4cmw/SPXPrelim.PNG/file
I expect a lot of whipsaw tomorrow with the fed meeting.
DeleteTJ - I’m wondering if we need one more lower low to complete this wave before a larger bounce?
ReplyDeleteLooking like another ABC up to resistance at 4200, I think so
DeleteSPY 15-min: before the close - I don't know if it will hold or not, but there is a potentially legal triangle in here.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hkFKtacR/
TJ
Can only say the potential triangle held into the cash close. Time to draw a first tentative trend line up. If there are new highs, then, possibly draw the parallel.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UuBCktHU/
TJ
fyi - only, it is 'possible' for the triangle to expand once in the overnight futures to make more proportional waves in the futures, and it still might not make a difference to cash.
DeleteTJ
Brief reminder than tomorrow is Federal Reserve decision day, at 14:00 ET followed by a press conference starting at 14:30 ET.
ReplyDeleteTJ
CRAK (0.25x3) -
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ES (wkly) - A dash of perspective
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/vq388fuv3c65ssu/ESwklyRSIs.PNG/file
Spot Gold (20x3) - Multi BBO
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Transports (wkly) -
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Addendum: Transports (dly) -
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ljpe49o8sisjxmh/transportsdly.PNG/file
A couple of things to be aware of on the Dow (YM) future on this FED day. First, remember that the Dow was an index that properly completed an expanding diagonal downwards, as the chart below shows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/azXSkVHq/
But, second, note that while many other indexes have made new lows on this trip downward, the Dow has - so far - only made it to the 90% level. So, either this downward wave is not done (implying further impulsion lower), OR, the wave will form a flat and retest the high. It seems absurd to have to two wildly different options, but I think this means we need to look to local parallel channels and see if they hold or break.
TJ
NDX (100x3) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/3c98lxymit7pony/NDX_100x3.PNG/file
Here is a chart update after the FED output. Follow the channels.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/S4mERpB9/
TJ
ES (5x3) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/y2brv
Powerful C wave. Imagine all that being taken back tomorrow
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ