Wednesday, May 25, 2022

DJIA invalidated a larger diagonal - not a smaller one

I don't 'know'. This is my best stab at it. There are enough overlaps to drive a sane person mad. Here is the DOW daily chart.


Have a good start to your evening.

TraderJoe

41 comments:

  1. Have you ever considered that these distort the limits of Elliott Waves so much as to make them almost useless? Wave 4's overlapping wave 1's, C waves shorter than A waves, the b wave of a corrective going below the price level of the preceding 5th wave. Allowable under some circumstances perhaps, but also largely discounted due to rarity. Yet, all over the place on that chart.

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    Replies
    1. Clearly, you haven't read the book. When you do, get back to me.

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    2. Expanded flats are quite common EW patterns. The labeling makes sense and was actually indicated by the divergent lower VIX high at the b wave low of the possible flat corrective wave.

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    3. one of most frequent patterns by the way

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  2. Adding to the NYSE and DJI, OEX and SPX obtained Bull Alert status today (BPIs).
    Breadth is improving (not yet on Nasd/NDX).

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/shzrc0yeplwcr1d/BPIs5-25.PNG/file

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  3. Thanks TJ, is there a reason not to end minor wave 1 slightly below the channel at the wave labeled circle b?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, it has to do with the count inside minute ((iii)).
      TJ

      Delete
  4. Thanks for the clarification. I have noticed from past experience that 1 of the paid EW services has conveniently overlooked minor overlaps of that nature and it really irked me.

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  5. ES (5x3) - Early look

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_411fe959c99dd9ee12da22cbcfef8cfe.png

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    Replies
    1. From the TTBO, have now formed a bullish catapult.

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  6. I don't 'know' if the count is correct. I only know the recent trend lines are extremely precise. There could be a 'throw-over', etc. The exceptional number of overlaps make the count extremely challenging.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/yXHaAfxy/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. yes thats what i see and at 403 spy level i posted

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  7. SPY (30m) - Closing in on gap area and targets

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/gbtj76ezbrifb1e/SPYclosingin.PNG/file

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  8. At this time, in your last count ((iv)) is still smaller than ((ii)) in price by 4.75 points in e-mini s&p jun chart, but longer in time. Rushing to the limit. Amazing.

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    Replies
    1. But in cash charts ((iv)) is already longer that ((ii)) by 2.55 points. If tradingview is accurate.

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    2. And now, already longer in price ((iv)) than ((ii)) in e-mini.

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  9. SPY 15-min: if the count is correct, there is a 'full' count.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/g1m85CvC/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. exellent, thank you makes sense with QQQ retrace to 298

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  10. ES (5x3) - Target range reached -

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_b93ad16da2431a4df15b09f0e3a154b6.png

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  11. on ES expanding triangle correction complete from 5/9 , some sort of failure, can still run 2%

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  12. ET,

    these are only 2 bearish counts i am considering,
    ES
    https://www.mediafire.com/view/frzxa2v18h93h3h/2paths.JPG/file
    SPY
    https://www.mediafire.com/view/b0iknyhzknk2zlc/max_pain.JPG/file

    here are neely type charts long term on spy
    ranging from 6months to 1 week plotting highs and lows in order they occurred, and using different starting months for the 3 month periods
    get the big picture
    https://www.mediafire.com/view/94mqe06aipd1rdn/neely.JPG/file

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    Replies
    1. on neely charts, last point is always current price, so theoretically you can ignore it since its neither a high nor a low

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  13. anyone else consider that the $ARKK monthly chart is completing a potential 2nd wave after an extended 1st?

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    Replies
    1. if the market could make new highs, it would be possible but I don't think so. Might have a huge B wave up if the market can bounce, similar to CGC monthly chart.

      Delete
  14. ES (25x3) Longer term look - nice to have objective targets.

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_3f23f23c547bb79d9b2f7c6860a206e8.png

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  15. SPY (30m) Reached -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/mwt6kowlpbfj37o/SPYspringup.PNG/file

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  16. ES (5x3) Subsequent target area reached -

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_d9c73c0107254856db8b470f47220bcb.png

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  17. An aside - GGN looks interesting here -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/xtttsc488cnahw4/GGN.PNG/file

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  18. What's with the SPY volume right now?

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    Replies
    1. I know it is a confluence of the weekly 100ma and weekly 5ma, but is that the only explanation? A bear attack? Big sellers?

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  19. SPY 15-min: chart update. Noting primarily that the MACD had crossed lower, fwiw. There has not yet been even a 23.6% retrace, though that may be coming. And I added and alternate from that crazy action on the FED minutes,

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/GqRSP6DI/

    TJ

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  20. SPY 3-min: look at this nonsense coming off of the high.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/yfSLZsdN/

    TJ

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  21. SPY 2-min: look at this nonsense coming off of the high.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/yfSLZsdN/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. SPY 2-min: up over the x wave, and the high.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/X5y0bLGg/

      TJ

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    2. your nonsense charts are pretty much fractals of daily charts since january

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  22. SPY (2x3) - I dont envy you trying to decipher those 2-3 min charts! My chances are better providing supplemental information.

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_ef7a12560e06c6d31636416397c443da.png

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    Replies
    1. SPY (.25x3) "Lowering the time frame" -

      https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_3b82dba56ba2298a54f2a749450b6cc2.png

      Delete
  23. SPX, OEX, and NDX went to Bull Confirmed status today (BPIs). NDX is actually at the 50% level, a key level (OEX/SPX in mid 40's). Other indexes are in Bull Alert status.

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  24. Worst 100 days - courtesy of LPL Research (free email) - Fwiw

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/gabaqtngqg0xg28/worst100.PNG/file

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  25. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete