Have you ever considered that these distort the limits of Elliott Waves so much as to make them almost useless? Wave 4's overlapping wave 1's, C waves shorter than A waves, the b wave of a corrective going below the price level of the preceding 5th wave. Allowable under some circumstances perhaps, but also largely discounted due to rarity. Yet, all over the place on that chart.
Expanded flats are quite common EW patterns. The labeling makes sense and was actually indicated by the divergent lower VIX high at the b wave low of the possible flat corrective wave.
Thanks for the clarification. I have noticed from past experience that 1 of the paid EW services has conveniently overlooked minor overlaps of that nature and it really irked me.
I don't 'know' if the count is correct. I only know the recent trend lines are extremely precise. There could be a 'throw-over', etc. The exceptional number of overlaps make the count extremely challenging.
At this time, in your last count ((iv)) is still smaller than ((ii)) in price by 4.75 points in e-mini s&p jun chart, but longer in time. Rushing to the limit. Amazing.
these are only 2 bearish counts i am considering, ES https://www.mediafire.com/view/frzxa2v18h93h3h/2paths.JPG/file SPY https://www.mediafire.com/view/b0iknyhzknk2zlc/max_pain.JPG/file
here are neely type charts long term on spy ranging from 6months to 1 week plotting highs and lows in order they occurred, and using different starting months for the 3 month periods get the big picture https://www.mediafire.com/view/94mqe06aipd1rdn/neely.JPG/file
if the market could make new highs, it would be possible but I don't think so. Might have a huge B wave up if the market can bounce, similar to CGC monthly chart.
SPY 15-min: chart update. Noting primarily that the MACD had crossed lower, fwiw. There has not yet been even a 23.6% retrace, though that may be coming. And I added and alternate from that crazy action on the FED minutes,
SPX, OEX, and NDX went to Bull Confirmed status today (BPIs). NDX is actually at the 50% level, a key level (OEX/SPX in mid 40's). Other indexes are in Bull Alert status.
Have you ever considered that these distort the limits of Elliott Waves so much as to make them almost useless? Wave 4's overlapping wave 1's, C waves shorter than A waves, the b wave of a corrective going below the price level of the preceding 5th wave. Allowable under some circumstances perhaps, but also largely discounted due to rarity. Yet, all over the place on that chart.
ReplyDeleteClearly, you haven't read the book. When you do, get back to me.
DeleteExpanded flats are quite common EW patterns. The labeling makes sense and was actually indicated by the divergent lower VIX high at the b wave low of the possible flat corrective wave.
Deleteone of most frequent patterns by the way
DeleteAdding to the NYSE and DJI, OEX and SPX obtained Bull Alert status today (BPIs).
ReplyDeleteBreadth is improving (not yet on Nasd/NDX).
https://www.mediafire.com/view/shzrc0yeplwcr1d/BPIs5-25.PNG/file
Thanks TJ, is there a reason not to end minor wave 1 slightly below the channel at the wave labeled circle b?
ReplyDeleteYes, it has to do with the count inside minute ((iii)).
DeleteTJ
Thanks for the clarification. I have noticed from past experience that 1 of the paid EW services has conveniently overlooked minor overlaps of that nature and it really irked me.
ReplyDeleteES (5x3) - Early look
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_411fe959c99dd9ee12da22cbcfef8cfe.png
From the TTBO, have now formed a bullish catapult.
DeleteI don't 'know' if the count is correct. I only know the recent trend lines are extremely precise. There could be a 'throw-over', etc. The exceptional number of overlaps make the count extremely challenging.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yXHaAfxy/
TJ
yes thats what i see and at 403 spy level i posted
DeleteSPY (30m) - Closing in on gap area and targets
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/gbtj76ezbrifb1e/SPYclosingin.PNG/file
At this time, in your last count ((iv)) is still smaller than ((ii)) in price by 4.75 points in e-mini s&p jun chart, but longer in time. Rushing to the limit. Amazing.
ReplyDeleteBut in cash charts ((iv)) is already longer that ((ii)) by 2.55 points. If tradingview is accurate.
DeleteAnd now, already longer in price ((iv)) than ((ii)) in e-mini.
DeleteSPY 15-min: if the count is correct, there is a 'full' count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/g1m85CvC/
TJ
exellent, thank you makes sense with QQQ retrace to 298
DeleteES (5x3) - Target range reached -
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_b93ad16da2431a4df15b09f0e3a154b6.png
on ES expanding triangle correction complete from 5/9 , some sort of failure, can still run 2%
ReplyDeleteET,
ReplyDeletethese are only 2 bearish counts i am considering,
ES
https://www.mediafire.com/view/frzxa2v18h93h3h/2paths.JPG/file
SPY
https://www.mediafire.com/view/b0iknyhzknk2zlc/max_pain.JPG/file
here are neely type charts long term on spy
ranging from 6months to 1 week plotting highs and lows in order they occurred, and using different starting months for the 3 month periods
get the big picture
https://www.mediafire.com/view/94mqe06aipd1rdn/neely.JPG/file
on neely charts, last point is always current price, so theoretically you can ignore it since its neither a high nor a low
Deletetime proportions might be off
Deleteanyone else consider that the $ARKK monthly chart is completing a potential 2nd wave after an extended 1st?
ReplyDeleteif the market could make new highs, it would be possible but I don't think so. Might have a huge B wave up if the market can bounce, similar to CGC monthly chart.
DeleteES (25x3) Longer term look - nice to have objective targets.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_3f23f23c547bb79d9b2f7c6860a206e8.png
SPY (30m) Reached -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/mwt6kowlpbfj37o/SPYspringup.PNG/file
ES (5x3) Subsequent target area reached -
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_d9c73c0107254856db8b470f47220bcb.png
An aside - GGN looks interesting here -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/xtttsc488cnahw4/GGN.PNG/file
What's with the SPY volume right now?
ReplyDeleteI know it is a confluence of the weekly 100ma and weekly 5ma, but is that the only explanation? A bear attack? Big sellers?
DeleteSPY 15-min: chart update. Noting primarily that the MACD had crossed lower, fwiw. There has not yet been even a 23.6% retrace, though that may be coming. And I added and alternate from that crazy action on the FED minutes,
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GqRSP6DI/
TJ
SPY 3-min: look at this nonsense coming off of the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yfSLZsdN/
TJ
SPY 2-min: look at this nonsense coming off of the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yfSLZsdN/
TJ
SPY 2-min: up over the x wave, and the high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/X5y0bLGg/
TJ
your nonsense charts are pretty much fractals of daily charts since january
DeleteSPY (2x3) - I dont envy you trying to decipher those 2-3 min charts! My chances are better providing supplemental information.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_ef7a12560e06c6d31636416397c443da.png
SPY (.25x3) "Lowering the time frame" -
Deletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_3b82dba56ba2298a54f2a749450b6cc2.png
SPX, OEX, and NDX went to Bull Confirmed status today (BPIs). NDX is actually at the 50% level, a key level (OEX/SPX in mid 40's). Other indexes are in Bull Alert status.
ReplyDeleteWorst 100 days - courtesy of LPL Research (free email) - Fwiw
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/gabaqtngqg0xg28/worst100.PNG/file
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ