Although we were clearly able to call an overnight potential triangle in the ES hourly futures (shown below), the up wave produced on the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve' meeting output does not show a good sign of ending yet.
Neither the MACD nor its histogram is diverging at this time. And price has exceeded the channel to the upside. Therefore, until there is more information the up wave is as likely to be a iii wave as it is to be a c wave.
We will continue to scour for clues. Kindly remember that if this is a second wave up at some degree, it could also form a double-zigzag w-x-y and that may be a reason why there is no divergence yet. Until we see something that looks like a clear reversal, we will continue counting a correction or an impulse upward.
We just remain flexible to which it is. Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
thank you, on mid-time frames (eg 4 hour) we are seeing hidden bearish divergence, but I'm no expert and maybe GW has some ideas on that. Thanks again.
ReplyDeletewelcome. TJ
DeleteI'm not seeing negative hidden div at this time. With price still heading up, we have no definitive "downtick" to "set" the RSI that I can see. Perhaps I'm missing something. I'd have to see what you see. (basis 4hr ES)
DeleteI mean the RSI climbing very high at 3 equal prices. Isn't that considered Hidden bear divergence? https://invst.ly/y2oxd
DeleteSPX(cash) (25x3) - updated
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/i1du8vtpkr6bz4h/SPXcash25x3.PNG/file
Continued good work. TJ.
Deletehttps://schrts.co/bFyGSghs
ReplyDeleteYield curve update
VIX - short term cycle (fwiw) via Twitter post -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/1h0xvei2bbgvd1t/VIXcycle.PNG/file
MJ (0.10x3) - Perhaps the beginning of something worthwhile
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/y2eed
TSLA (dly)(10x3) - Two views (with confluence?) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/vk6dzwlbfcvh5yx/TSLA2views.PNG/file
NQ (wkly) A few observations -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ssbfvbs9vhcpc9f/NQwkly.PNG/file
Looks like a gap at the open.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tJkmaqzo/
TJ
Does that decline look impulsive to you - ES - thanks
DeleteVXN - never overlapped up wave. QQQ might get a lower low.
DeleteNext certainly looking like some kind of wave 4 finished yesterday.
DeleteSorry, ndx, phone correction.
DeleteWhat a mess. Wondering if these last few days are not part of b of 3 of a contracting diagonal from the top.
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: five waves down from the high, and breaching channel lower with 'some' price overlap. Watching for more, or overlap in cash too.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GDRozJde/
TJ
ES/SPY the down wave in cash & futures is 'clearly' longer in price than the b/ii wave which suggests monitoring the high to insure a retrace does not exceed it. Cash & futures now have overlap on a/i.
ReplyDeleteES / SPY (Reminder only) a double zigzag up is a way to extend a second wave in time but in that case the high would likely be exceeded unless the y wave failed.
ReplyDeleteTJ
the FED low has been exceeded lower.
DeleteTJ
SPY (30min) [Possible] positive HD -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/zvezcfitnozu64t/spy30hd.PNG/file
Clarification - viable as long as divergent price low(close) is not exceeded.
DeleteBloody demised. :o)
DeleteSPY (2hr) Observations -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/jp6f9f9djzkzs20/spy2hrihs.PNG/file
Try counting down today lol.... The gap and go could be iii/3 from ath. What I find interesting is that yesterday had psychological feeling of a 2 up, and today of a 2 down
ReplyDeleteIf counting down now next wave if real real big would be (iii)/iii/3. That would ultimately lead to people recognizing we are doomed lol
ReplyDeleteAgree with TJ that a parallel channel break or a 1,2, i, ii violation will have to give some clues.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/agc06Sz
Just fyi - NYSE Adv/Dec = 385 to 2,888 or more than 1:7 in favor of decliners. Biggest ratio to the downside in a while.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Do you interpret that as a sign of capitulation or as some sort of 3rd wave?
DeleteIt is 'moderately impulsive'; more impulsive than we've see in a while, but not extreme. It 'could be' a 'i' wave, or an 'a' wave. Thus, it could still be part of a larger correction upward, or it could be part of a larger wave downward. We have not even had 'kick-off' ratios of 1:9 to 1:12 yet.
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
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ReplyDelete