Wednesday, May 4, 2022

No Clear Indication of a Terminus

Although we were clearly able to call an overnight potential triangle in the ES hourly futures (shown below), the up wave produced on the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve' meeting output does not show a good sign of ending yet.


Neither the MACD nor its histogram is diverging at this time. And price has exceeded the channel to the upside. Therefore, until there is more information the up wave is as likely to be a iii wave as it is to be a c wave.

We will continue to scour for clues. Kindly remember that if this is a second wave up at some degree, it could also form a double-zigzag w-x-y and that may be a reason why there is no divergence yet. Until we see something that looks like a clear reversal, we will continue counting a correction or an impulse upward.

We just remain flexible to which it is. Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

33 comments:

  1. thank you, on mid-time frames (eg 4 hour) we are seeing hidden bearish divergence, but I'm no expert and maybe GW has some ideas on that. Thanks again.

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    1. I'm not seeing negative hidden div at this time. With price still heading up, we have no definitive "downtick" to "set" the RSI that I can see. Perhaps I'm missing something. I'd have to see what you see. (basis 4hr ES)

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    2. I mean the RSI climbing very high at 3 equal prices. Isn't that considered Hidden bear divergence? https://invst.ly/y2oxd

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  2. SPX(cash) (25x3) - updated

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/i1du8vtpkr6bz4h/SPXcash25x3.PNG/file

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  3. https://schrts.co/bFyGSghs

    Yield curve update

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  4. VIX - short term cycle (fwiw) via Twitter post -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/1h0xvei2bbgvd1t/VIXcycle.PNG/file

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  5. MJ (0.10x3) - Perhaps the beginning of something worthwhile

    https://invst.ly/y2eed

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  6. TSLA (dly)(10x3) - Two views (with confluence?) -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/vk6dzwlbfcvh5yx/TSLA2views.PNG/file

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  7. NQ (wkly) A few observations -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/ssbfvbs9vhcpc9f/NQwkly.PNG/file

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  8. Looks like a gap at the open.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/tJkmaqzo/

    TJ

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    1. Does that decline look impulsive to you - ES - thanks

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    2. VXN - never overlapped up wave. QQQ might get a lower low.

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    3. Next certainly looking like some kind of wave 4 finished yesterday.

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  9. What a mess. Wondering if these last few days are not part of b of 3 of a contracting diagonal from the top.

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  10. ES 1-Hr: five waves down from the high, and breaching channel lower with 'some' price overlap. Watching for more, or overlap in cash too.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/GDRozJde/

    TJ

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  11. ES/SPY the down wave in cash & futures is 'clearly' longer in price than the b/ii wave which suggests monitoring the high to insure a retrace does not exceed it. Cash & futures now have overlap on a/i.

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  12. ES / SPY (Reminder only) a double zigzag up is a way to extend a second wave in time but in that case the high would likely be exceeded unless the y wave failed.

    TJ

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  13. SPY (30min) [Possible] positive HD -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/zvezcfitnozu64t/spy30hd.PNG/file

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    1. Clarification - viable as long as divergent price low(close) is not exceeded.

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  14. SPY (2hr) Observations -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/jp6f9f9djzkzs20/spy2hrihs.PNG/file

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  15. Try counting down today lol.... The gap and go could be iii/3 from ath. What I find interesting is that yesterday had psychological feeling of a 2 up, and today of a 2 down

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  16. If counting down now next wave if real real big would be (iii)/iii/3. That would ultimately lead to people recognizing we are doomed lol

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  17. Agree with TJ that a parallel channel break or a 1,2, i, ii violation will have to give some clues.

    https://imgur.com/agc06Sz

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  18. Just fyi - NYSE Adv/Dec = 385 to 2,888 or more than 1:7 in favor of decliners. Biggest ratio to the downside in a while.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Do you interpret that as a sign of capitulation or as some sort of 3rd wave?

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    2. It is 'moderately impulsive'; more impulsive than we've see in a while, but not extreme. It 'could be' a 'i' wave, or an 'a' wave. Thus, it could still be part of a larger correction upward, or it could be part of a larger wave downward. We have not even had 'kick-off' ratios of 1:9 to 1:12 yet.

      TJ

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  19. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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