We're about 137 - 138 hourly candles in from the low including the Sunday/Monday session. Try as you might it is hard to know where that ii/b is. The second location yields 1.618 from here. Will a fourth wave begin? Only if the a,b,c shown is not the (e) wave of an expanding triangle - a count alluded to by reader marc, and which is a reasonable suggestion. It would be quite a fooler.
Today's up wave hit the upper daily Bollinger Band, then there was the small break seen. Tomorrow will use the Sunday/Monday prints in the Tuesday calculation of the Bollinger Bands the way the Globex price bars work. The Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) seems headed for the typical fourth wave location (or more, lower). I will add a reminder that Tuesday is the last trading day of the month which 'often' sees month-end window dressing, and Wednesday is the first day of the new month which 'often' sees the inflows from the roll-overs, pension funds, dividend reinvestment plans, company bonus plans, etc. that we have mentioned before.
More importantly express appreciation for any Vets you might come into contact with today. We do honor their service.
Have a good rest of the holiday.
TraderJoe
JNK - Knee "junk" reaction? Very early signs -
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BTC (750x3) One more push down?
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Well, well, well... and there you have it. in reference to this chart posted earlier...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OZT2mUWj/
Not quite, but almost 'proof positive' that a 'b' wave can be much longer than 1.618, provided it does not violate degree guidelines.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3CZ9Ycm5/
In order to negate this count you'd have to ignore the almost perfect 'five-up' to the 'c' wave counted out in real time.
Again, the reason the 'b' wave might be counted this way is because it is shorter than the (a) wave in both price and time. Therefore, it is not a degree violation.
TJ
In this count the 'b' wave is a 2.5x wave! Extraordinary.
DeleteTJ
no sh_-*t. ... could that be wxyxz ?
DeleteFascinating, the plethors of talk8ng heads Friday assured a more lasting bottom was in. Looking like Mr.Marjet had other plans.
ReplyDeleteOptimism for new highs every few weeks or months is well ingrained in the investor psyche. People are having a hard time with the idea that the bear market may take up even a whole year! Haha
DeleteDAX (150x3) If interested -
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ES (4hr) - current
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Possible we had a 1,2 i,ii. If so, we could be in 4th of 3rd, with 5th of 3rd to follow. Subsequent 4th/5th to complete.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7PptDwmW/ interesting parallel on log
DeleteGW - I agree, but I’m sure you have noticed the negative HD on daily chart.
DeleteGood morning all. ES 1-Hr. The smaller (blue) up channel has broken lower in the after hours, back-tested, and failed with a lower low. Magenta channel now in play.
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A potential fourth wave signature is showing up on the EWO, and cash opens in about one-half hour. Not a wave of this is in cash, yet.
TJ
ES 10-min: expanding diagonal construction is now 'okay'. This is the 'smaller diagonal I referred to in the initial count down IF the red a-b-c count played out. But, to get it, you have to play some 'games' with what counted like five-waves-up of a flat. It's ok, we were expecting either.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2F001iuX/
Look at how 'long' it took to form this wave, and 'none' of it 'appears in cash' yet. Also, it was correct to say that very initial ((B)) wave was simply to short in time to correct anything other than a zigzag. Count not proven yet. If a diagonal is correct, then should not go over the high before a new low.
TJ
ES has a lower low. TJ.
DeleteES 1-Hr in contact with lower magenta channel boundary @4,103. Cash nowhere near its channel. 38.2% is at 4,076 ES.
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TJ
ES - 4hr update
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Very short term: SPY 1-min from the low - has the higher high needed for a diagonal (can go higher; could be leading)
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TJ
Diagonal likely done. Now what? Over the high or under the low?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yNohIDzm/
TJ
'Counts like' five non-overlapping waves down to 61.8%, then upward overlap.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qI1QPohT/
TJ
ES (25x3) Update -
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ES (5x3) Update -
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SPY 1-min: three waves up and a lower low.
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TJ
'looking like' an expanded flat to make a deeper retrace.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pYaWDkTA/
TJ
Your ((1)) down appears to be an extended 1st. Its longer in time than ((2)). Also, no wedge shape. Just observations.
DeleteSPY 1-min: this is the brutal part about counting these waves. If that was a-b-c down, then the c wave was only a 0.382 wave! Where is 0.618 or equality. But we know it had to be because price is over the top.
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TJ
How about a "w" at your ((3)), followed by exp flats for x and y? Would this work?
DeleteThe typical relationship in y, w is y = w. Same issue. No difference.
DeleteTJ
Gotcha. But it would eliminate the issues noted above related to the extended 1st wave, 5 wave move down.
DeleteES 4hr - Still an hour to go, but working on a double close key reversal (up).
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: since cash had only three-waves down (:3); watch for a flat or running triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PEgs2iox/
TJ
ES (4hr) Double close key reversal, but needs confirmation -
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ES (5x3) - update
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Addendum: As long as 4105 low holds, we have a reversal horiz target of 4225.
DeleteSPY 3-min: cash has it's first break below the new channel.
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TJ
..every up wave has some degree of overlap.
DeleteTJ
ES (5x3) TBBO, but holding (currently) -
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