For the last couple of days, we have been trying to count an up wave. Looking at the hourly ES futures, it looks like the pattern currently is that of a significantly overlapping wedge, with three zigzags in it, like the one below.
With three zigzags, the mind must remain open to the possibility of a diagonal. But, if it is just three zigzags, with price remaining below 4,102 then it might be the second minute wave in the nested count. Keep in mind the retrace waves, or (x)'s in this count are not 62% or greater. Thus, the triple zigzag is preferred at this time. The alternate is more probably a leading diagonal rather than an ending one.
The volatility is high, and price action today was whippy on an interview by the Wall Street Journal with FED Chair Jerome Powell.
Having lost the embedded daily slow stochastic, the market may be trying to target the 18-day SMA.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJo
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FS-93SCWAAEM2eU?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
ReplyDeleteWhile such things are 'possible', both waves two and four would be truncations - making the odds less likely. TJ.
DeleteRSP/SPX - (dly) (0.25x3) - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/5iifqy36oa4ov7v/RSPSPX.PNG/file
SPY (30m) - Gaps
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/s2ridr1gtqrpvci/spy30gaps.PNG/file
RBOB - (0.025x3) - Short term DBBO (or more)?
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_39ff1a48c5a72935bf3943c6123885b3.png
ES (107m) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/8zsx1y6h29vmtqt/es107divs.PNG/file
Good morning, all. ES 1-Hr; below prior wave (x) and EWO below the zero line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1Vubk9bA/
TJ
ES 30-min (intraday wave counting screen); there are three closes below the lower band. Odds drop from here of additional closes; possible, but lower odds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oj6L1a8S/
There is almost a 2.618 wave downward, and the question is if the downward wave will try to hold a parallel when a potential fourth wave forms.
TJ
ES 30-min: fourth close below the band. The 2.618 extension was tagged, and GW's first cash gap was closed.
DeleteTJ.
ES 30-min; you may want to plot 100-SMA in addition to 18-SMA and look for resistance at/near confluence.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/opplp28c/
TJ
ES (5x3) Potential support area
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_81991893f2c9ac187be559f3b91746db.png
ES 30-min: first close inside the band; resets the number of consecutive closes.
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SPY 30-min: third down (red) fractal back has broken lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EyUoB0i3/
TJ
ES 30-min: now tagged the 3.0x extension; IFF a crash wave, 4.236 cannot be ruled out. TJ.
ReplyDeleteJust fyi - one contraindicating factor is the Adv/Dev is only 1:2; seems very tepid.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY 30-min: has taken out the fifth down (red) fractal back and is nearing the 50% retrace level.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qf5gG6Jj/
TJ
SPY (30m) Gaps
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/di2jnllq5m9fm1w/spy30gapper.PNG/file
ES 30-min: next markers are S2 daily pivot support level and 4.236x Fibo extension.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/va0gVOWM/
Also watch for 18-SMA bear cross under 100-SMA with slow stochastic still embedded.
TJ
S2 daily pivot support tagged.
DeleteTJ
SPY 30-min: sixth down (red) fractal back exceeded lower.
DeleteTJ
ES (5x3) Long Tail Down -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/s55pehcny5uyv66/ES5x3-overlay.png/file
Horiz target of 3970 reached.
Deletejust fyi - NYSE Adv/Dec line beginning to catch up now 584 : 2,524 or 1 : 4.3
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY - top of gap reached
ReplyDeleteCould be wrong, but this has the look/feel of a shakeout.
Delete[Attempting] to bounce at top of gap
DeleteES 30-min: there is the clear 18-SMA cross 100-SMA,
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KwA9XoaP/
TJ
ES 30-min: 4.236 has been tagged from either low. 'Often' that contains a wave. If not, the next markers are daily pivot S3 which is confluent with the next Fib of 5.0x, shown on the chart at the link.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8YQm93h8/
TJ
fyi - the issue is the intraday slow stochastic is still embedded as of this time, and there is not as yet even a signal candle, let alone a confirming candle higher.
DeleteTJ
did you rule out the "nest" because the second wave took longer than higher degree eave? or are you looking at counting differently to still allow for the nest?
ReplyDeleteGood question: can also be counted like this without violating degree labeling in price & time, as far as I can tell while working quickly.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZCy7HfEw/
TJ
yes moving the v to old iii was what i recommended blad you see it now as well
DeleteSPY (3min) In the weeds -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/pe3lj230uu3z36m/spy3m.PNG/file
fyi only - SPY 30-min: tags 0.618 retrace level of up wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2XoDGIAe/
TJ
fyi - Dow Jones Transports make a new daily swing low below the Oct '21 low.
ReplyDeleteTJ
fyi - ES 30min - tag of S3 daily pivot support. Slow stochastic currently still embedded, and nearing 5x extension.
ReplyDeleteTJ
fyi only - ES tags 5x extension. Reversal candle still needed,
DeleteTJ
SPY - 392.58 is gap btm
ReplyDeleteOk. That's done. Let's head north! lol
DeleteThat's not what I show. I only consider close-to-open gaps (not high or low to close gaps). As below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DciWfOo8/
TJ
Pick your poison.
DeleteSPY 30-min: now the gap is filled.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8tVb0O2E/
TJ
ES 30-min: still need reversal candle. Watch the high of the prior 30-min candle.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min: outside reversal candle lower. Watch to see if it 'flips' either on this candle or next two 30-min candles.
ReplyDeleteTJ
reminder: intraday slow stochastic still embedded at this time.
DeleteTJ
Aapl outperforming all indices to the downside, quite rare.
ReplyDeleteIs there a price above SPY 385.15, where we can conclude we're in wave (iii) of 3?
ReplyDelete"The first item up for bids on the 'Price Is Right' is to see if a non-overlapping impulse wave forms properly." Unfortunately for your question, that might happen simultaneous to a break of the low, if it does. While the third wave extension was the 'hypothesis' of my piece last night - minute ((ii)) stays below 4,102 - all that can be said at the moment is that there is nothing that doesn't indicate we are in the third wave. It would be nicer to see some deeper adv & dec statistics, but they are forming slowly for some reason. We did have the expected cash gap down this morning. So 'all the signs are there'. Unfortunately, a lot of EW logic depends on those fractal breaks higher or lower.
DeleteTJ
Thanks TJ, all those Algos and their masters make it tough, I also wonder if the Fed has quietly set up a window for the margin desk units in the brokerage segment, to cushion against their forced selling.
DeleteI show 3906.xx as .786 retrace.
ReplyDeleteES (2hr) Its early yet (no RSI uptick), but I'll just throw this out there. We have a potential positive HD in progress.
DeleteAmazing, intraday slow stochastic remained embedded through the cash close. And I can't find a good candidate for a reversal candle yet (up, that is). That outside candle down held for the next two candles. TJ.
ReplyDeleteOne giant kick in the nuts may take care of some wealth effect inflation.
ReplyDeleteES closed under daily channel. Look forward to your report. Thanks for all the effort.
DeleteCouple of questions always come to mind on a big selloff day like today -
ReplyDelete1. Who's buying?
2. Given this aggressive selloff, what is the least anticipated outcome going forward?
3500 by Friday would be least expected.
DeleteNo 3000 would be less expected than 3500
DeleteTouchè, but the 200 weekly is at 3500
DeleteIsn't sideways always least expected?
DeleteSince this market seems to be seeking out old gaps to fill, the next one is 3634-3645 on 12/1/2020. Then there's 3589-3594 on 11/24/2020. My VIX moving average crossover indicator tripped again today, and the last two times generated quick 9%ish declines.
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ReplyDeleteSPY (mthly) Long term perspective, food for thought. (this replaces prior, this has non log fibs)
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/svc6o62w5efiscr/FoodforThought.PNG/file
I'm bullish soon but 2020 was very quick down. This is like a slow moving train which is just now gaining speed. Vix still only at 30, the high in 2020 was 85.
DeleteRTY vs ES - Not so bad -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/sugvqyubxz25mgx/NotSoBad.PNG/file
This probably should have said "not as bad".
DeleteBPIs for 5/18 - Overall mrkt held up fairly well -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/r86l18jjrdll0uv/bpis%25283%2529.PNG/file
RBOB - (0.025x3) Quick update -
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_b6e174d43adf041f79a07889d77e26b7.png
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ