Just keeping it simple tonight. Our first job is to find whether an impulse can form a parallel, as in the ES 30-min chart below.
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| ES Futures - 30 min - Can Fourth & Fifth Waves Form in a Parallel? |
If it can, and if a fourth wave forms properly, followed by a fifth wave, then it seems like an attack on the prior low is possible as well as re-visiting the lower daily Bollinger Band.
A step at a time here. The longer term will take care of itself, for the moment.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
RTY (2.5x3) - Current
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_87ae7ab7c7c1683898de98f628838eb3.png
RTY (2.5x3) & ES (5x3) - current
Deletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_b8fc8de8ca5bd77d55c23d575d540e95.png
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_85a89f4c879f61c42de11285fde94720.png
Both now have ascending TTBOs.
DeleteES 30-min: looks to me like the impulse formed successfully. Now any kind of correction can result. Zigzag, Flat, Multiple ZZ, Combination, etc. Could be quite tricky and could go below the low again.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/140DSd8s/
TJ
Just curious. Is your parallel channel supposed to be an acceleration channel?
DeleteIf an acceleration channel is drawn connecting your (i) and (iii), and top of channel at (ii), then we'd see assumed (iv) moving outside of the channel as
DeleteJ.K. suggests to confirm (iii) has ended. Correct?
It did, yes. TJ.
DeleteSPY 30-min: the blue labels are a tentative count, based on the ES channel, and the SPY lower low, until it is proven this wave does not go over the top.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/R8Het668/
It is only suspicious that the SPY stopped this morning at the 90% level (Fibs on the left). Retrace Fib levels are on the right. It is also interesting that SPY has formed no fractals yet on this time-frame. It might be a good idea to let some form.
TJ
Fib turn dates - 5/23-24-30 Can we reach 3815 = .382 retrace from ‘20 bottom.
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: there is now a legit fractal at the low on this time-frame.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dsgwiHU8/
TJ
Today's ES pivot around 3975.
ReplyDeleteRTY (2.5x3) - Daily pivot reached
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_8a4783a2397713a5adb0db0ba7f649b2.png
DeleteES 30-min: so far in the futures this looks like a-b-c up where b is a triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_c54cc2100556b9f20b781845d11052b6.png
TJ
..then there is downward overlap.
DeleteTJ
SPY 30-min: there is now a valid up (green) fractal at today's intraday high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1JmZHwlq/
TJ
IWM/SPX - (1x1) Relative strength assessment - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/hm7hs3pb1k04eaj/IWMSPXrs.PNG/file
RTY (30m) - Morning rally
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/u931vkn2e5087n9/RTY30m.PNG/file
Current push up [could] be part of exp flat (4th), with pb and rally to follow if
Deleteit hasnt completed already.
TJ- In the chart above, the assumed 3rd wave is just shy of the 6.853 fib (4.236 x 1.618). Since 3rd waves typically [?] don't exceed 2.618, does this tell us something special about this wave sequence as to how it might relate to a larger structure?
ReplyDeleteThanks.
..as I said yesterday, it 'may' be part of a crash wave.
DeleteTJ
Thanks, missed that.
Delete30 minute SPX lost the embedded slow stochastic and made its way back to the 18ma.
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: has now broken the first up (green) fractal back.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cmd0Kkub/
TJ
Cop/Gld vs 10yr -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ljzf32h3xqslpc4/comparecopgld10y-overlay.png/file
SPY 5-min (close only). To take out some noise for a moment; it sure looks like a double-zigzag. Need to see if length relationships would be maintained for a diagonal or if it fails for a down count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YgeO1jqx/
TJ
..that is a good exercise for the reader; me - I'm signing off for a while.
DeleteTJ
Your x wave looks like impulse taking out noise
Delete30 min. SPX back under the 18ma. Slow stoch. pointed down, not yet oversold.
ReplyDeletespy looking like a bear flag, if so the target is the 373 area.
ReplyDeleteJNK (1x3) - Perhaps -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/fnfzyahg3ef9tdd/JNKclosingin.PNG/file
NYSE A/D line +
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Yes possible rally for a few days before more downside. If we're in a B wave still it would make sense.
DeleteGood morning all. SPY 30-min chart below with 1) new gap, 2) new fractals. Bear flag parallel still in tact. Would be a wedge on the ES futures - still to just about the 38.2% retrace level.
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TJ
ES (30min) - RM shows
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Ugly price action in NQ.
ReplyDeletehttp://tos.mx/1kFHzpn
http://tos.mx/ORRQqoq
DeleteMight be 5th wave down.
Deletehttp://tos.mx/Rb9AFoX
SPY 30-min: cash has closed it's gap in a better looking 'five-down' than five-up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2YbZGt21/
This suggests monitoring to ensure the high is not exceeded.
TJ
ReplyDeleteES back to daily pivot.
Well exceeded, now at .786 retrace.
DeleteSPY 30-min: here's a chart update. All three down (red) fractals have now been exceeded lower. Combined with less than a 38% retrace in cash, this suggests the extended first wave scenario to the down side.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YGN3dH1X/
Draw in the new 0 - (ii) trend line, and any interior wave ii of (iii) should remain inside the trend line.
TJ
..put a wave counting stop over last night's high, as it would suggest "something else".
DeleteTJ
ES 60-min: Noon sellers took price through the prior daily low, currently continuing the daily swing line lower.
DeleteTJ
TJ, Is it a rule or guideline that a leading contracting diagonal could not have ended around March 10th?
Delete@BBR .. as far as I know, it is a 'rule' that a leading contracting diagonal 'must' make the lower low beyond the Feb low, and it did not. But, it is not a 'rule' that in the "ugly five" down count to February, wave four can not cross up into wave two territory. That is currently published as a guideline, or a 'warning'. The only rule is that wave 1 may not be overlapped. And, if wave 2 was a flat, then wave 1 is not overlapped.
DeleteTJ
@BBR .. pg 88 of the EWP, "In a leading diagonal, wave 5 'always' ends beyond the end of wave 3." Knew I had seen it somewhere. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: intraday wave-counting screen currently has 5 consecutive closes below the lower band dropping the odds to 1-2% of further consecutive closes below the band; not impossible, just lower odds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LIKcp221/
TJ
ES 30-min: intraday wave-counting-screen. 18-SMA cross 100-SMA lower, currently.
DeleteTJ
This coiling, nesting action...are we on crash alert for Monday and next week?
ReplyDeleteRTY (2.5x3) - 2nd horiz target reached
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_bd7995d8ab769e766e1fe50f8c069d70.png
The subsequent horiz target of 1727.50 has just been tagged, and 3 box reversal has occurred.
DeleteShowtime, does this bear growl?
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: now down to slightly beyond the S2 daily pivot, and with seven consecutive closes beyond the lower intraday Bollinger band. Odds down to 0 - 1% of the next close outside of the band. Chart below is 10 min behind.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/V48UU8q2/
TJ
ES 30-min: first close back inside the intraday band. Resets the number of consecutive closes.
DeleteTJ
3800-3850 was consensus area where market would get fed attention (as in the old fed put etc), look for big move one way or another and continuation monday.
ReplyDeleteHead and shoulders target on spy between 370-360. My guess is next week.
Deletethere is no proven statistical predictability on head and shoulders patterns, and when it "fails" you get rip roaring move counter to what you are betting on. be careful
DeleteSPY 30-min: chart update as below. As long a price remains in the new parallel, then the nested count can continue. This is a new acceleration channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dUePXoaw/
If the upper parallel breaks, it is a warning. One of the alt's is shown because it is 0.618. But the RSI is deeper, there is no divergence yet, so downward counting still seems in order. (And if the parallel breaks upward another alternate would be a "b" wave).
TJ
SPY 30-min: this is now the largest-in-price and longest-in-time correction since this morning's down move began. It is likely blue ii, and it can still go for a while if it wants; but likely not below the low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nyjGTMcC/
TJ
SPY (30m) Monitoring for spring [possibility] -
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SPY 30-min: proposed wave ii is now too large and is outside of channel. Possible diagonal forming lower. Will review count tonight for tomorrow.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Bm9ktGyU/
TJ
failed nests = completed ending diagonals. i look forward to your count.
Delete..the count is up on the next day's post.
DeleteTJ
SPY (30m) Off to a good start -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/liy632krcw07kt4/goodstart.PNG/file
Thanks GW but note: The strikes with the largest open interest in Puts that I saw about 11AM CDST, were at 390 SPY (99,000 OI) and 3900 SPX (11,000 OI). By the close, the open interest at the 380 strike price had increased substantially (to 120,000 OI - a lot of Bears got faked out of their skins) and a lot more Puts than Calls were left open all the way between 380-390/3800-3900 (for Puts to expire worthless).
DeleteEWO showed 3 of 3 nicely but did wave 5 fail?
ReplyDeleteNo. See the next day's post. Wave three's typically don't fail.
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ