On the ES daily chart (and more clearly using the ES 4-Hr chart) it is hard to argue with the count of another five-waves-down, falling a couple of ticks just over equality with the Jan to Feb, 2022 drop, as shown on the daily chart below. However, the couple of ticks are enough to currently make the waves of the same degree.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Just a Smidge Over Equality |
On a four-hour chart, with 180 candles, the EWO diverges at today's low, but, by-all-means, it is not very convincing yet. Further, upward counting should not begin in earnest until/unless price started printing full candles over a trend line drawn from black Minor 2 to black Minor 4.
On this chart, the daily slow stochastic has not embedded yet. And while in over-sold territory, there is nothing bullish on the chart at this time. There is not even a daily higher-high bar since wave minute 4. Thus, the daily swing line is still headed lower, and price has again tried to attack the lower daily Bollinger Band but did not quite make it there today.
Also of interest, the daily fractals are acting as they should to help define terminus points of waves.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I made a post-market edit to better clarify the wave degrees, and also to provide one of those very clear Elliott Wave wave-relationship invalidations to the alternate count. It is also worth noting that the second set of five-waves-down is slightly faster than the first such set.
ReplyDeleteTJ
I thought you might note today that the VIX was also negative, though it could be finishing an ABC correction.
DeleteThanks TJ. I was surprised to that the VIX closed lower. That’s a positive divergence. Volume wasn’t impressive on SPY, but was on QQQ. I want to see closing price on put/calls.
DeleteOther than general 'whippinesd' I don't find Vix predictive of SPX. I think Ira is more correct that it helps pro plan their call-writes and put-writes. But it really has a different 'shape' than SPX. I do use the put-call index as a sentiment measure, though.
DeleteI’ve bought a lot of SPX bottoms over the years with VIX diverging. It helps knowing that the VIX trades below 40 - 98% of the time. Plus we have SPX stocks above 20 dma trading below 10 - that’s in the buy zone. It still doesn’t look like a washout though.
DeleteI agree more with the last sentence.
DeleteWhen I’m long. I get more nervous when SPX & VIX trade up together.
DeleteDon't get nervous: don't get excited. Just measure. TJ.
DeleteIf anyone is interested, I haven't heard anyone mention it but Bitcoin has pierced the neckline of a very well developed head and shoulders pattern on a daily time frame and there is virtually no support in sight until the 16,000 range. Could be some real pain on the horizon and wondering if there could be any financial system fallout if levels like that are reached.
ReplyDeleteWas thinking 12k area from the large bear flag, probably lower
DeleteTom, Place where wife picks up her cigarette's they installed a Bitcoin machine, I told her time to sell your Bitcoin just before the peak :)
DeleteListening to my afternoon news they said if coinbase goes bankrupt it's possible you could lose your Bitcoin. I'm not sure the accuracy of that. I do not own Bitcoin.
GW had a chart suggesting possible 18,000 if I recall.
Bill, There is the old story about the market craze in sardine trading when the sardines disappeared from their traditional waters in Monterey, California. The commodity traders bid them up and the price of a can of sardines soared. One day a buyer decided to treat himself to an expensive meal and actually opened a can and started eating. He immediately became ill and told the seller the sardines were no good. The seller said, “You don’t understand. These are not eating sardines, they are trading sardines.”‘
DeleteReplace the term "sardines" with the term "Bitcoin" LOL
Thanks!
ReplyDeleteES (4hr) - An inkling of encouragement -
https://www.mediafire.com/view/qs2cgmefclyqjsd/withinparallellines.PNG/file
👍 SPX - stocks above 20 dma at 7. I was waiting for the MM and we got it. Started a position at close. Probably early
DeleteCorrection - 7%
Deletehttps://schrts.co/yXKXJDWI
ReplyDeleteWe’ve had a reversion to the mean. SPX is 10% below 200 ema
https://schrts.co/TqXJavIS
DeleteQQQ - 17% below 200 ema. MM = 282
https://schrts.co/fAnHpKtH
DeleteVIX - the ultimate mean reverting instrument.
Hi Tim, Your contributions are insightful. I was going through your comments. I am wondering what you meant by MM in this context. Thank you
DeleteSorry - measured move - like C = A
Deletehttps://schrts.co/UTwBaGqa
DeleteCPCE - 82
Thank you.
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ehocll949ddzos1/sector_rotation_5-11-22.jpg/file
ReplyDeleteI put 2 lines where I think we at right now.
Using an ema (which Ira uses) rather than an sma on the 14,3 Slow Stochastic, thinkorswim is showing that the E-mini is embedded as of the end of Wednesday's session.
ReplyDeleteES (5x3) - TTBO
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_1437cc1e5120b002b27af70fcd4a4052.png
SPX (cash) wkly - Perspective, distance from 200 m.a.
ReplyDeleteOops. Forgot the chart. :o)
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/s7olzu40fwr6vwx/Perspective.PNG/file
3600 area looks right, still many people saying buy the dip. 3600 should discourage that 😊
DeleteES (5x3) - Early look -
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_68bd125b7a97a5694bcc598177602c97.png
.382 retrace from ‘20 bottom in play.
DeleteES - 10 day ROC at extreme.
TJ, Could we be working on c of 3 in an expanding diagonal from ATH?
ReplyDeleteBBR .. definite possibility. Just way too early to call it such. If so, it might be of the 5-3-5-3-5 variety.
DeleteTJ
Good morning all. ES 30-min: here is a channel on the futures. Watch the high and low of the opening bar; watch the fractals. Watch the potential for an expanding diagonal ending wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/64gTFYAZ/
It is way too early to call a potential expanding diagonal wave, but there is a 'minimum' from here that must be met for a fourth wave.
TJ
fyi only - high of opening bar exceeded higher.
DeleteTJ
fyi only - first up (green) fractal back exceeded higher.
DeleteTJ
fyi only - second up (green) fractal has been exceeded higher.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cXOLdHwm/
TJ
fyi only - now there is upward overlap at 3,951, above the 'overlap warning' level.
DeleteTJ
fyi only - now the third up (green) fractal back has been exceeded higher.
DeleteTJ
SPY 2-min: this wave 'might be a diagonal if it can overlap but not too far; see chart below. It has overlapped already.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0pUR8fjK/
TJ
TJ - if we continue lower, could we be in a extended fifth wave in your black count.
Delete..grunge ..downward wave has gone too far..
DeleteTJ
Ah .. ok; this structure is legal for 'five'up', and now into downward correction.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4FMR4Sqe/
TJ
@TimH, yes.
DeleteTJ
I need to be out for a while; ES currently deep retrace; watch invalidation below the morning low. TJ.
DeleteES 60-min: I see while I was out, the ES took out the low. The trade is heavy like mud at the moment. Will look to further downward Fibonacci relationships.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Within a few points of fibs. Extreme volatility. Can take out highs and lows or both
DeleteFib arks near by?
DeleteGetting down there: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
ReplyDeleteThat's better!
DeleteTJ
getting down there? it's on the floor!
Deletepossible the first A (abc) may be done, also the pitchfork median line hit FWIW
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_22a5bcd48e94b9564c19e64b8e176635.png
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ