Daily ES prices are bumping into the upper parallel trend line. We are getting close, very close, if we are not there already.
 |
| ES Futures - Daily - Trend Channel |
While it's possible to count a completion, it is also possible the market wants to make either a smaller scale or larger scale diagonal to drag this out even more in time. IFF we get downward overlap, then I may show the potential larger scale diagonal. Right now that is a ways away.
While the daily MACD has not called a turn, yet, at some point - a little like today - we're going run out of upside, and remaining long is gonna sting a bit. What's that famous market axiom about "everyone running for the exits..."?
This chart was added in the morning. I wanted to see if the recent down leg would make 78.6% of the former up leg in the futures.
 |
| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Potential Triangle and It's Alternate |
This count may be a way to get the Dow futures over their top, as well. I will not rush the count even though completion may be counted. If the Dow futures get over the top, it may be 1) a way to end the count, 2) a way to look for a larger diagonal playing out. The above wave could also be a "(c)" wave in such a diagonal.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
👍 margin debt at record highs too.
ReplyDeleteNice Deja Vu reference!(CSN) :o)
ReplyDeleteYou forgot the Y…CSNY… 🙂 see them 4 times. Awesome
DeleteCouldn't remember if Neil was with them at that time. Well done! :o)
DeleteCL (wkly/dly) - updated thoughts -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/Mpg7Bw4z/CL.png
30min - late look -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/sDM3P5Gz/30min.png
Good morning all. An additional shorter term chart and some commentary has been added to this post, above. I wanted to see if the down leg in the futures had met the 78.6% level, first. It has.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Just a reminder from the FED calendar page.
ReplyDelete12:00 p.m.
Testimony -- Chair Jerome H. Powell
Watch Live
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Before the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services (via livestream)
TJ
From CNBC - "Powell will say in his required semiannual testimony before Congress on Wednesday that the central bank can wait before it starts to ease its bond purchases despite surging inflation readings, according to remarks released before his testimony. In his prepared statement, Powell said he still expects inflation to moderate. "
DeletePowell throws gasoline on a lit fire. Only bond market vigilantes could bring some sanity to markets now.
DeleteTJ
Ehh we know they aren't going to be transparent about anything. Reverse repos sucked nearly a trillion dollars out of the banks back in March-May while they were talking up staying the course with 120B in QE and near zero interest rates. Most people don't even know what QE is and even fewer know what a repo is. That trillion dollar reverse repo was the fed panicking about inflation IMO.
Deletehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD/
He knows what's coming...
ReplyDeleteCiao joe, scusa il disturbo, può essere che il doppio max appena fatto venga giù una buona onda a di grado maggiore?grazie
ReplyDeleteCiao Fabio. Possible. TJ
DeleteAvendo fatto doppio max,si può escludere la rottura del max di 4392 e quindi dovrebbe rompere il minimo di ieri?grazie
Deletepossibile, ma non certo. Possiamo ancora essere ub un triangolo fino a quando il minimo di ((a)) non viene rotto.
DeleteTJ
Grazie joe, cerco di imparare, mentre faccio trading.... speriamo scenda....😃
DeleteBenvenuto. E guarda la tabella qui sotto. Nulla è stato ancora escluso.
DeleteTJ
30min, an hour in -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/g2Hn7Ybp/HourIn.png
Ensuing pullback held the 40 level (RSI)
DeleteNothing has been ruled out, yet. It is the typical 'Fourth Wave Conundrum' that happens at every degree of trend. A triangle could complete. A diagonal could complete. A larger fifth wave could complete.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qzW3Eq7m/
TJ
Quindi mi pare di capire che sotto il minimo di 4350 lassù si è chiusa una 5? Si può affermare questo dalla teoria joe? Grazie
Deletemolto probabilmente
DeleteNot sure if anyone noticed but the A:D ratio started with a pop at 3.66 Hour and a half later it is at .75 and declining That's a big reversal in the broader market, yet all of the major indexes remain positive except Russel 2k.
ReplyDeleteES just crossed 4,365 creating a valid triangle, or possible diagonal, a downward wave or a second wave of a fifth wave up. Chart to follow.
ReplyDeleteChart update: price crosses centerline again. Wave ((E)) or ((iv)) is valid in a triangle or diagonal. Price can also keep going through the bottom, if it wants.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/f23IJN6a/
TJ
Reminder: FED Chair Powell testimony begins at top of the hour.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Joe, mi sa che non scendono ,quella fatta potrebbe essere una 2... che dici??
ReplyDeleteSee update below.
DeleteHere is a short term chart update ...
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/vfhnp
TJ
Molte grazie,joe sei un amico anche se non ci conosciamo di persona e siamo anche tanto distanti di città 😉😉
DeleteBene grazie
DeletePutative 4 over-lap it appears...
ReplyDeleteHere is a short term chart update, with local options. Right now, it is volatility for the sake of volatility, until there is a wave long enough to validate or invalidate a count.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/vfigz
TJ
fyi - Chair Powell is done for today.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: With its recent higher high, a leading diagonal is valid; this tends to remove the downward options. Alternates removed from chart. The retrace of the diagonal only needs to respect the 4,354 low.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/vfims
TJ
ES 5-min; place your Fibo ruler on the diagonal. Trading below its lower up trend line shows diagonal count was correct and is now retracing.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/vfip6
Trading up over a/i would mean the next wave up might be in progress, although that might occur with a gap up tomorrow, provided the 4,354 low holds.
TJ
..overall, I think the larger hourly triangle is more correct than the upward larger hourly diagonal. That is because of today's double-zigzag downward. Single zigzags are more common in diagonals. So again, the count we showed earlier appears correct.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CF3f37os/
And, if this is a barrier triangle, it might have a shorter target than typical.
TJ
ES 5-min: downward retrace is > 38%; that is all that is 'required', but of course, a diagonal retrace can go deeper and take more time.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/vfiui
Retrace of diagonal must hold the 4,354 low. Alternate of upward diagonal removed based on discussion of double-zigzag wave, above.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete