None of us like it that much. The stock market as measured by the ES futures, made a marginal new high by 1+ points, then got some rejection. That is one heck of a breakout (not!). We counted that minor high as part of a triangle fourth wave. If we've counted the triangle correctly, then we might already be in a last wave up - at least of a wave series. If you are interested in the triangle count, be sure to review yesterday's post, as we posted it as the second chart in the main post as it was proposed. So far, it has come to fruition.
 |
| ES Futures - Daily - Breakneck |
A higher high could follow the triangle, provided the low of 4,350 is not taken out first. Today's candle looks like a spinning top candle. You can find several others of them on the daily chart. Several of them precede more significant drops. Yes, sometimes they are slightly exceeded higher first.
But, note, the daily bias is still up as price remains over the 18-day SMA, and the daily slow stochastic is still embedded higher. Keep your eye on the slow stochastic. IFF it crosses below the 80 level, then possibly price will make a run for the 18-day SMA.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks!
ReplyDeleteHas Copper seen a long term reversal? (wkly/dly) -
https://i.postimg.cc/d1LDzTGC/copper.png
Do you think copper could break out going into fall/winter? I would have put it in the seasonal commodity. Weekly is still above the balance line. I was thinking flat copper till fall. Thank you for your chart.
DeleteSPXcfd (dly) - one possible outcome
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/J7dgmxhs/Maybe.png
LYFT (wkly/dly) It looks like LYFT may need a "lift". (if interested)
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/ZKmqRv6r/Lyft.png
Scusa joe, se quella che sale è una onda 3 , può fare solo la 3 senza la 5 , tipico abc ,naturalmente parlo di sp500
ReplyDeleteSPX rallied 5.5% (230 points) over 17 trading days, while setting 13 new ATHs in the process, yet the McClellan Oscillator never once got above zero. My guess is if the data miners on Twitter put those facts in their search engine the results would say that it's never happened before.
ReplyDeleteSPXcfd (4hr) - Early look -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/Ls9Ntd0y/4hr.png
Good morning all. Overnight the potential upward diagonal was being retraced deeply to start, but later in the overnight, prices broke down below 4,350 and invalidated a triangle. At the moment, the down count is messy, and can 'still' be a fourth wave. What I'm watching is this parallel on the ES 30-min for the time being.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MJxewGS5/
TJ
Regarding still a fourth wave, this is still possible. I don't like it as much as the next guy, but the down wave doesn't count well yet. And, yes, we 'could' have topped.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/saAgRj15/
TJ
Se sostituiamo i numeri con le lettere si può leggere come una onda 1 di discesa?
DeleteGrazie
Interesting: SPY qualifies in price length for the expanding diagonal. It could go longer. And if price finds a bottom, then a retrace must hold the high for it to be a 'leading' diagonal. Otherwise, it is an 'ending' diagonal. Truly a messy count.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vwePwoKe/
TJ
@fabio - Davvero non lo sappiamo ancora fino a quando una mossa verso l'alto non va oltre l'alto.
DeleteTJ
Grazie joe, scusa il disturbo, vorrei aprire una posizione evitando di fare grossi danni, e mi fido della tua competenza messa a disposizione.
ReplyDeleteVediamo che fanno...😉😉
EW Vs Printer cage match.
ReplyDeleteStocks above their 50ma - current look
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/yYRS0xdB/stocksabove.png
Quite the divergence along with multiple A/D lines. Never ends well. Oh well well.
DeleteRE : stochastics
ReplyDeleteira epstein has revised his stochastic analysis to a close below 79 now
he does not use the 80 level any more
SPY 15-min: here is a chart update.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gv35oHBh/
TJ
Pensi sia presto per aprire short su es ?
ReplyDeleteNon fornisco "mai" consigli di trading o di investimento. Io conto "solo" le onde. Tutti i mestieri sono presi a proprio rischio e direzione.
DeleteTJ
ES and SPY new L-O-D
ReplyDeleteXLU (wkly/dly) Defensive XLU on the rise (currently) -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/rscZvzPX/XLU.png
SPY wave ((5)) reaches 1.618 x wave ((3)).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/F8WynfMP/
TJ
Adv/Decline lines :
ReplyDeletehttps://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NAAD
I think your SPY chart may be counting a 3 as a 3-4-5.
SPY 15-min: a 38% retrace, so far. That's all that's required, but certainly can go higher if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nIGIXHRs/
TJ
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDelete