As far as I can tell, the weekly chart below has no degree violations. I have explained it many times in many posts, so I'll spare the words here, except to say that a weekly trend line has again been broken lower. Nothing says the uptrend is definitely over. But signs are pointing that it might probably be over.
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| SP500 Cash Index - Weekly - From SuperCycle (III) High |
Below is the shorter-term ES 8-Hr chart, with the chart notes from yesterday updated. There were lots of buyers at the 62% retrace. That was today's lower daily Bollinger Band, and we made readers aware of that at the time.
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| ES Futures - 8 Hr - Down to 62% |
A key question will be whether that level holds. Another question is whether 4,125 will hold. These are open questions. Therefore, we have added notes, that it is possible for the up wave to form a slightly larger diagonal, with the high as (i), and today's low (or a slightly lower overnight low) as (ii). Remember, for a true diagonal to form, then wave (iii) 'must' go higher than wave (i).
After diverging, the MACD on this time scale did go below the zero line, although the signal line has not yet.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
TJ- Thanks for the long term 1 week chart and I have a question. Back in June and July of 2020 you were counting Minor A of int W as abc wave and today you are showing that as Minor A having 5 complete waves.
ReplyDeletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/07/
Is there a reason you had to change it?. Also if you could please paste here an older chart (I kept looking) as to how was minute c was counted within that minor A?
Many Thanks and Sorry for the bother.
Correct link
ReplyDeletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/07/gap-and-grind.html
Part I of the reply shows the rationale why.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qfbqMLbd/
Part II of the rely shows the 'visual equivalent' which contains no
errors in the lengths of the waves.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/L9zRSayJ/
This was only necessary because you can't 'anchor' the same points on a weekly chart because they are too close together. In short, they are the same.
The original incorrect labeling occurred because in the conservative count, after (W), the (X) wave did not materialize at that time.
TJ
I will say I have issues with so many wave charts that count correctives that make new highs, especially when the corrective is 50% higher than the previous pattern. This kind of (not really kind of, it does) makes the concept of corrective and impulsive interchangeable.
ReplyDeleteSo to that end, about a month ago I started wondering - what would the chart look like if you took out the Covid 2020 shutdown / crash, up to the point where the price level matched pre-covid levels. After all, that was largely external to the market.
So I made this. In this pattern, it's pretty easy to see the 5 impulse waves from 2018 lows. Absolutely this is contrived and could probably be made to look like anything, but I thought it was remarkable how the EMAs, RSI, and MACD EMA's just matched right up.
https://i.imgur.com/R97Zf6n.jpg
Nah .. I think what you are really trying to say is that an unlimited amount of money (FED), can fuel an almost unlimited amount of speculation, and induce people to form a record number of IPO's (more than ever in any year) - when companies can't get workers! That amount of money can try to force a corrective to look impulsive. But, it likely isn't because it isn't 'real' economic growth. It is money-printing pure and simple.
DeleteYou simply can not take out the Covid crisis because lots of speculators lost their shirts trying to buy the dips. The declines were as hurtful as the increases are profitable.
TJ
I understand what you are saying, and to that point I've always noted that longer term patterns are best understood when factoring in inflation. The 2000-2008 pattern for example (on most indexes) becomes a simple zig-zag when you look at an inflation adjusted chart. This should be understandable when the market is looked at over long periods of time, where inflation is a major factor. But in shorter periods or for huge overshoots that can't be explained by inflation? I don't really think so.
DeleteNo promotional material, just an anonymous count like the other posts here...
ReplyDeletehttps://i.ibb.co/tZMpp1N/spx.png
Your little (smaller degree) 4 is much larger in price and time than your bigger, larger degree, ((2)). That violates the definition of degree labeling. As I have asked others. Please do not post this nonsense on my site.
DeleteTJ
The following chart from Elliott Wave International (Robert Prechter) shows a smaller degree wave (i.e. Minor 2 pullback) which is bigger than the larger degree wave (i.e. Intermediate 2 pullback)...
Deletehttps://twitter.com/elliottwaveintl/status/1412536877383626752
There is no Robert Prechter or Ralph Elliott material which posits that a larger degree wave must be bigger than a smaller degree wave in terms of price and/or time.
If the waves represent a fractal movement, it is entirely logical to think that the fractals of a minor degree are smaller than the fractals of a greater degree. Fractal patterns are intimately related to the concept of dimension.
DeleteCounting waves in any way, everything is worth it, and so there is so much bad analysis.
It is not a good reference to name R.Prechter that has so often failed in its counts. I don't remember how many times I've seen a Prechter chart with the top 5 of ((5)) of (V) ... maybe twice a year.
You haven't understood the goal of ET yet. He seeks to improve the use of the wave theory, applying degrees to minimize errors that occur using conventional methods counting waves.
Joe tries to go further, and I'm grateful to him for sharing this knowledge that will enable me to make progress in my analysis. This does not mean that he always has to be 100% accurate, as nobody is.
More clearly ..
DeletePrechter called for Primary ((1)) down after 2000. Nope.
Prechter called for Primary ((1)) down after 2008. Nope.
Prechter called for Primary ((1)) down after 2018. Nope.
Prechter called for Primary ((1)) down after 2020. Nope.
And the chart you reference is his failed "after-the-fact" relabeling of market action "that had already taken place". In other words he is "back-counting" what he had already counted once to try to make up for his larger mistakes. Remember, this is a firm that said that the FED is 'irrelevant' to the wave structure. Tell the market from 2020 to 2021 that the FED is irrelevant in that wave.
If you want to have a track record like this keep ignoring degree labeling. If you want to learn something, try listening to this audio interview with Glenn Neely.
https://www.neowave.com/interviews/interview-201710.asp
Neely has at least ranked in the Top Ten market timers on a number of occasions. Regardless of what you do or not, any more Elliott wave cartoons, with numbers and letters placed wherever you want them on a chart 'will' simply be sent to spam.
TJ
Scroll down the page to click on the player.
Surprised Prechter and Hochberg are still publishing. True story. Hochberg was so consistently wrong in his STU, I finally figured out (after loosing a lot of money trading his counts) that I needed to do the exact opposite of what his analysis suggested. I made back all my losses following that strategy. I also concluded, wrongly or rightly, what they were doing had to be deliberate. Nobody can possibly be that incompetent, it is statistically impossible!
Delete@Tachy .. part of the reason is they (Hochberg) have even gone so far as to break their own 'basic rules' - like 1) wave three not being the longest wave in a contracting diagonal (GOLD). 2) Wave three in the US Dollar Index being the 'shortest wave'. The results were: 1) GOLD went 'over the top' which it wasn't supposed to do, and 2) the US Dollar kept dropping instead of turning higher as predicted.
DeleteI have written them repeatedly on the subject several times, when each of these occurred, and these are documented. I told them if they didn't fire Hochberg for these rookie mistakes I would end my subscriptions. And I did end them.
TJ
T.J. I wrote to Steve as well out of sheer frustration, but to no avail. He seemed entirely unaware of the expanded flat as an EW pattern and many of his erroneous counts were directly attributable to that blind-spot.
DeleteLol I think every single EW aware person on the planet has been burned in some way by those clowns. A coin toss is more accurate. I'd also be real careful about any long term EW counts. < 1HR charts it's remarkably accurate, anything above that and IMO its accuracy falls off in an exponential way. This is why people can count the waves in real time on 5 10 15 min charts pretty accurately, but try to predict what's going to happen next month or farther out and you're reaching. Just my opinion.
Delete@123abc .. you are encouraged to review the 'real time example' at 09:44 AM, and below. And see how you can count "forward in time", and not go back and constantly recount waves that have already been counted.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/vhf42
TJ
Do you agree with Neely when he talks about the time consumption error? That wave 2 must be longer in time than wave 1 and same with wave 3 & 4?
DeleteThe unknown account is generally not replied to: log in or pick a user name. Neely was speaking 'generally' and for broad impulse waves. You can find an example of this from the 2009 bottom to 2011, as follows.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/usXnPpUx/
I believe that no other count is possible because one needs to "set the base" for such a huge advance. Those people putting a (1) at the Apr 2011 peak have no consideration for 'time' or 'form' in their count, and they are making the typical rookie mistake of just picking what "looks like" the highest wave.
TJ
Thanks for the longer term revisited, and the detail on 8hr! Very much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteA few add'l observations on the wkly -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/7h424niospdxyhe/spxW.PNG/file
Thanks for that post GW
DeleteI've been wondering if we haven't been in a "throw-over" since April this year.
RORO - another measure trying to turn.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/m41afnz4ys9usmt/RCDRHS.PNG/file
SPX - stats of interest - (courtesy of BarChart)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/x5h0095rwi8ozsq/SPX_stats.PNG/file
Daily CL testing 100ma, outside the lower bb, and oversold. https://tos.mx/gEkNYey
ReplyDeleteReminder: Blue Origin space shot at the top of the hour.
ReplyDeleteTJ
.. so far, one of the astronauts didn't know he had to 'push-to-talk' on his microphone. That's some good training there. Lol.
Delete..well. glad to see they made it.
DeleteTJ
@Terry O; please do not link to paid subscription sites. This post will be deleted.
DeleteTJ
Here is an illustration of one of Neely's 'time of correction' principles from the audio interview in 'live action'.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/vheqz
It can help prevent 'buying too early' if one is looking for the upward correction.
TJ
..and now up and over a/i and blue ((B)) - for Blue Origin - which demonstrates the principle live and in real time.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/vhez1
TJ
..it also demonstrates how a correctly formed expanding diagonal can be called in real time, and how such a pattern can be an 'ending' diagonal and not a leading diagonal. In fact, 'more often than not' the pattern is an ending pattern.
DeleteTJ
..notice how the ((B)) wave 'looks' impulsive BUT there is no clear expansion of a third wave. It's all choppy in the middle. Just as is the ((C)) wave down. But, if one starts counting as i, ii, (i), (ii) two things happened. 1) The trader's stop gets tagged by the break below ((A)), and 2) the second wave (ii) becomes 'longer in time and price' than the first wave ii - which results in a degree violation in time and price, as well as wave (ii) going below the origin of its wave (i).
DeleteTJ
..with the higher high, the parallel can be added. One could also add the EWO (or MACD) at this point to get a feel for it.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/vhf62
TJ
..then you place your Fibo expansion ruler on the up wave. And if it goes beyond the 100% level, OR, if it goes beyond the 34 bars of the first impulse it is then NOT a sub-wave. And, you have to figure out what that means. It MIGHT mean, that you do, indeed, have a first sub-wave, but then there is the higher high of a FLAT after it. That is legal. It's part of a different wave. Or, it might mean you are counting a wave c/iii (as c, only), and the first sub-wave wave was lower in the sequence. Sometimes this takes some 'real-work' and noodling, and not just guessing. In this case, so far, the up wave is still legal for a sub-wave, if it wants to turn out that way.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/vhfke
TJ
Morning all
ReplyDeletewatching the vix current testing downtrend breakout sp gap 4320ish..Thanks all for the posts..Gl to all
Joe IMO the below right on
Nah .. I think what you are really trying to say is that an unlimited amount of money (FED), can fuel an almost unlimited amount of speculation, and induce people to form a record number of IPO's (more than ever in any year) - when companies can't get workers! That amount of money can try to force a corrective to look impulsive. But, it likely isn't because it isn't 'real' economic growth. It is money-printing pure and simple
joe, hello can wave 2 be the one that is going up
ReplyDeletehi fabio ;) yes - some or all of it.
DeleteSwitching to ES 5-min; this is approximately what I see in this wave since the open.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/vhgur
TJ
ES 1-Hr; interesting ES up wave just shy of 62%. Will we have a wave that fails inside of 62%, instead of extending beyond that level? It has certainly been a while. It's not certain, let's see how it goes for now.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Courtesy of SentimenTrader -
ReplyDelete"Get your lifejacket. The NASDAQ Titanic Syndrome triggered three days in a row. This is the first time the indicator has triggered three days in a row or more since Feb. of 2020."
The last time we had 5 days down in SPX was last February. Trend change, maybe.
DeleteVIX & VXN are back testing DT lines
DeleteMi sembra esagerato tutto questo ottimismo per il ribasso degli indici... siamo già d'innovazione vicini i max....
ReplyDeleteno response if not posted in English.
DeleteI think you got your back test on S&P futures.
ReplyDelete..well, it's in progress. It needs to succeed higher or fail lower, yet.
DeleteTJ
Back to the ES 30-min; either count is still applicable. If we go over the high again, it could be a 'b' wave of iv.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/vhj7h
TJ
..as far as I can tell, we just popped the high. A larger fourth wave is possible.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: labels configured for the higher high. IT IS NOW POSSIBLE FOR THIS TO BE THE 'a' wave of diagonal (iii), meaning we could go back over the all-time-high again. The odds have risen significantly.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/vhjbk
TJ
Here is the local chart at the end of the day. Higher local highs are possible in the overnight, and tomorrow. A longer wave iv in time is possible, too.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/vhjw6
TJ
A new post is started for the next day. I think you will find it interesting!
ReplyDeleteTJ