Tilt

Elliott Wave is an analytical tool designed to help determine the rough odds of a market movement in one direction or another. We have been tracking the count below since 21 March 2020. It is Intermediate (W), (X), (Y) of a Primary ((B)) wave higher, as shown, on the ES 2-Day chart below.

ES Futures - 2 Day - Potential Completion

Today the odds tilted a bit in favor of wave completion. Why? There are five key reasons:

1.  There are five waves that can be counted from B to (Y). That would be the minor C wave.
2.  Per the Elliott Wave Oscillator, there is no signature that represents an third extended wave.
3.  Time requirements from the low of the Primary ((A)) wave have been met.
4.  The (X) wave is the longest correction in price and time.
5.  If the wave got much longer in price length, it would be harder to justify a ((B)) wave.

So, we don't know for sure. Elliott Wave doesn't work that way. There are still other head-scratching waves that might occur. For example, the DOW might make a higher high, without the S&P. That doesn't have to happen, but it is a possibility.  Another possibility is the formation of an ending diagonal that doesn't take overall price that much higher but wastes more time. Again, this might happen, but it does not need to. Other contributors to this site, and I, have commented on the wavering advance-decline line, the over-blown complacency, and numerous other technical indicators indicating that the rubber-band is very, very stretched.

Adding it all together, it poses a significant argument for a top. I do not think another Intermediate (X), and or Intermediate (Z) wave are needed because the time expectation has already been met, being longer in time than the Intermediate (B), upward, to the February 2020 high.

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe