Our count remains unchanged - see yesterday's post for the hourly count. We pointed out that a "b" wave could be located nearer the high (..or over it). That is still the case.
Yesterday, we point out that the 'risks were to the high, and the risks were to the low'. We meant that, and while some higher and lower prices resulted, neither the all-time-high nor the recent 27 July low were exceeded in either direction. For those paying attention, today's price movement in the ES futures is still clearly choppy and and clearly in a relatively shallow up channel.
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| ES Futures - 30 min - In a Channel |
In a situation like this, again it helps not to forget the many styles of "b" wave that can occur. If it looks choppy down, and choppy up, then it might turn out we are in a triangle. And, it might turn out we are in a flat. Or even, it might turn out we are in a multiple zigzag lower.
"B" waves are pretty gnarly characters. And, if I am expecting a "B" wave down, that also means that at this time I am also further expecting a higher move up to a new high at some point (..the caveat is unless this wave invalidates on the hourly .. which it is nowhere near close to at this time).
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
spxcfd (30min) update from this morning post -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/3bgx5onz156vhyh/cfd30eod.PNG/file
Thanks for all the Fed comments. Enjoyed them
ReplyDeleteFXI and SPX - place your bets -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/fqeacpodpkeilsj/fxispx.PNG/file
For measuring time, does this corrective wave within the last wave of the proposed diagonal upwards have to be shorter in time than the corrective wave in the middle of the middle wave of the diagonal to keep proportions? Or is that a misunderstanding, as long as the time doesn't violate the larger degree (not the same degree)?
ReplyDeleteFifth waves in a diagonal are 'usually' (most-often) shorter in time - as well as price. But, diagonals have been known to extend slightly so as long as price and degree are not violated, it would be technically valid.
DeleteTJ
spxcfd (4hr) - Early look
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/eyxi11it0vrzsj4/cfd4hr.PNG/file
Good morning. ES 1-hr: now within 90% of the top.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..chart (delayed)
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AqS0Ex72/
TJ
SPY cash actually went over the top by a few clicks, eliminating the alternate (real time).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/G1JVk3Yk/
TJ
is the c wave down not expected to take out the a low now since the b went over the top? irregular flat?
Deleteyes, see below.
DeleteYep. Upward break anaemic. They will need a futures gap and hope the bulls pile in, and if they don't, I thnk we break the shelf to the downside and if that happens, although kinda short, I will conclude a five up done...
Delete@tachy .. don't think a fourth/fifth combination meet degree-labeling definitions. You'd have to show me that one.
DeleteTJ
I think that's prpbably right which is why I was reluctant to post it. I just could not figure out an alternate count that allowed the downward move NOT to be corrective after the new highs.
DeleteTried to count an expanded flat but again degree problems. No idea how to count but still looks to me like more upward price action ahead.
DeleteJust fyi -
ReplyDelete1. ES new high, too.
2. ES 30-min has three closes over intraday upper Boli Band - probability 2-3%
3. R2 intraday resistance @ 4,424; currently at 4,421.
TJ
..also just fyi - the ES is now over 105% of a-3 meaning it qualifies for an 'expanded flat', not just a 'flat'.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/J2HjIUSr/
TJ
O.K. A combination would avoid the degree problem for an expanded flat. Thanks!
DeleteJoe, 4428 is top , flat
ReplyDeleteexspanded?
Yes, see above.
DeleteJoe, 4428 is top , flat
ReplyDeleteexspanded? Tank you
4372 must be break?
ReplyDelete'Likely', not required.
DeleteBattle around S/R shelves resolved with expected short-term outcomes: bears loose, market notches new highs. Next 24 hours will clearly show who is bluffing!
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: weak (green) hourly pin-bar back down to the breakout high. Like all candlestick patterns, its requires a lower low, and lower close confirmation candle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6X0t5mLF/
TJ
ES 1-hr: higher high candle negates weak (green) pin-bar.
DeleteTJ
ES 1-hr: now a 'spinning top' candle. While some 'tails' are showing up, as always, for candle patterns, confirming candles are required.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mo7XQaL8/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: lower-low candle; part one of potential confirmation. Needs to close significantly lower too.
DeleteTJ
ES 1-Hr: Price now below both the invalidated weak (green) pin-bar candle and below the 'spinning top' candle. The candle does not close until the top of the hour. Try to do measurements to include or eliminate a fourth wave from the overnight low.
DeleteTJ
ES 1-Hr: I took off the Elliott Wave Oscillator temporarily to also have a look at RSI.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4htJh17V/
RSI has not yet gone above the 70 level.
TJ
If it is a 4th wave from the overnight low, would that still fit for the last wave of the b up? in other words, since b waves are notoriously anything but the kitchen sink, would this 5 wave move break any rules?
ReplyDelete..I don't think so, since this 'b' has not even gone to 1.272 or 1.382 yet.. (but 'yet' is the key).
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: back to the typical intraday chart the intraday slow stochastic just closed below 78; and, while the intraday and daily bias are still 'up', price may try to meet the 18-period on the intraday. That is a 'typical' expectation. That level is 4,412.
ReplyDeleteTJ
There is ES 4,412; and price comes down to meet the intraday 18-period SMA.
DeleteTJ
SPY (5min) - observations
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/luduhs80gtkvotv/spy5min.PNG/file
Hello TJ,
ReplyDeleteIm counting 5 down from the today's high, could the top be in of B?
Hello.. yes, it is 'possible' to have the top for b. Watch for a retrace that does not go over the high. Otherwise, the five-waves down are a smaller degree 'c' wave of a fourth wave.
DeleteTJ
I think that is correct. Looks corrective to me. I would expect greater momentum for start of a higher degree C downward.
DeleteI would also expect to see clear VIX divergence on the final wave higher. My view would change with a rare over-night gap higher in VIX. While not conclusive, I think it would butress the case for some kind of interim top.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min; going into the settle below 4,707 price has now overlapped downward the upward FED bar. Interesting.
ReplyDeleteTJ
They say that no one ever rings the bell at the top, but how fitting that the Robinhood IPO came out today, at what will probably turn out to be the dead high.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete