Tilt - 2

Yesterday, I wrote that the odds were favoring count completion. I still see that to be the case. I wrote that there were still "head-scratching ways" to eek out higher highs. It was clear the Dow futures had not made their higher highs yet. I said it was possible that they would. Here is the daily Dow chart in line form.

One of the two most likely targets for the Dow is ((v)) = ((i)). That target is shown here. If that target is exceeded (and you should use the OHLC version to figure it), then the next most likely target is ((v)) = 0.618 x [Net of ((i))-through-((iii))]. I was clear about where wave ((iv)) was on the Dow. It is likely the S&P had it's fourth wave in the same location.

I used the line version of this chart so you can focus on the form of the wave, and the way the Elliott Wave Oscillator perfectly went below the zero line for the fourth wave. Notice, too, the alternation in time between the short wave ((ii)), and the very long in time wave ((iv)).

Will wave ((v)) finish as an impulse or a diagonal? I can't tell you for sure. But either is possible. For the diagonal version I would like to see 62% internal retrace waves within wave ((v)). But, again, a diagonal is not required. Possible, not required.

In yesterday's opening comments, I said "daily bias is still up. Intraday bias is still up." I did that for a reason - as a reminder of where we are. We are still in that position. I also said I had a personal preference to wait to see if the opening gap filled before counting downward. That did not occur.

So, we are either in c of (i) of a diagonal ((v)), or we are in a simple (iii) of ((v)). Either way, there should be a reaction when (v) of ((v)) is obtained.

The advance-decline line is diverging. It can do that a while. The Dow Transports are diverging. They can do that a while too. There is still room for Intermediate (Y) = (W) if the market wants to pursue it. The S&P 500 is more that 78% of the way there.

Have a good start to the weekend.

TraderJoe