Relative to previous corrections in the hourly up swing since 21 June, today's correction was relatively deeper. The ES futures made a higher high in the overnight. And, as often occurs, this higher high does not show up in the cash counterpart.
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| SPY Cash - 1 Hr - Fourth or Triangle |
The deeper wave suggests that if this morning was not the bottom of the fourth wave (iv), then a triangle might be forming to better equalize wave fourth and wave two. The deeper wave also suggests the market may be getting a tad tired.
P.S. The NQ futures did invalidate the always potential contracting diagonal as we warned over the weekend. Again, this just better confirms the Intermediate (W)-(X)-(Y) count of Primary ((B)) as is being counted in the S&P500 and the Dow.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I agree with the 4th wave triangle idea...it was fun watching price break through subminuette one high but it kept above minuette one. Seemed a little deep of a move how quickly it was, and I was thinking more time would be great before wave 5 new high. Looks ideal on the chart, nice to see you think that too.
ReplyDeleteUS oil just closed slightly below 2009 highs trend line after slightly peaking above for a few days. Same thing for weekly/monthly. As an update to my previous GSG/GSCI and USOIL discussion. Follow through downwards would be telling to wave counting
Few months back you told me second wave has to be in channel. The abv labeling doesn't adhere to that rule. Can u clarify. Thkd
ReplyDelete..doesn't sound like a comment I'd make. Not sure what you are referring to.
DeleteTJ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/586tPUuU/
ReplyDeleteIYT&KRE - a couple key indices (weakness currently) -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/L410k5Ds/IYTKRE.png
ES 15-min : market getting a little back-test of a three-touch up trend line at the open. Let's see if it can make at least a 62% retrace wave in a triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/vcxs4
TJ
opening negates the back-test with a higher high.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: backing out to watch prior high for clues. Two structures come to mind.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/vcy10
TJ
ES30-min: opening candle is a doji = indecision.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/vcy67
TJ
ES 30-min lower low (LL) candle. Watch to see if trend line breaks.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/vcy91
TJ
ES 30-min; now lower low (LL) and lower close (LC) candle. Also, trend line breaks on price and RSI. Add Fibo ruler, see 38%; can it go deeper?
Deletehttps://invst.ly/vcyp2
TJ
ES 30-min - fyi; now down to 50% retrace, and beyond.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min; now makes 62%. Can go lower.
DeleteES 30-min; 'looks like' five-waves down. Might make another leg of a zigzag? Let's see how it goes.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: here's a chart update - looks like another back-test is upcoming.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/vczfo
TJ
ES 30-min; eeks out a new higher high to 4,350. Wave structure getting more and more complex. Barrier triangle or upward diagonal still in play. Ugly stuff.
DeleteTJ
Continued internal divergences :
ReplyDeletehttps://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NAAD
ADR got a pop this morning to 1.88 and within 30 minutes was below 1.0
This (more losers than winners in the market) can't go on too much longer without the indexes being affected.
Reminder: FOMC minutes at 14:00 EDT.
ReplyDeleteTJ
DXY (wkly) - update
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/Kc7pk3gT/DXY.png
Here is a SPY hourly update. Note the open gaps.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/03mgYb5e/
TJ
..and now ALT: (v) is possible as a diagonal to itself, if a? of (iv) breaks down.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CnCuBEA0/
TJ
..and IFF b? extends, then a 'running triangle' is still possible. Some length to the waves is needed for a judgement instead of this very compressed price movement.
DeleteTJ
..time for me to watch a little 'footie' until the close.
DeleteIm pullin' for Denmark. :o)
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ