This is the count so far. The waves are in two different channels, and they are not all that impulsive looking yet. They could turn into something more, so keep in mind that A,B,C ~ 1,2,3 until it is proven that it does not.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Channel |
Watch the potential invalidation of minute wave ((iv)), and the channel boundaries. The advance decline stats today were 443 : 2,643 which is much more on the impulsive side.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
If it is the down count, then 4 is already more points than 2, similar duration in cash market, .38 retrace of 3 on a 5-3-5 up from the low. The high should be in and a hard gap or drive down at Tuesday open to a new low.
ReplyDeleteAlmost any other outcome and especially above 3280, then I suggest that today's low may have been A of 3 of a diagonal building from the top.
Any reason that B couldn't have gone 5 waves? It would suggest that C has just started, with the halfway-back retrace happening just now in the overnight.
ReplyDeleteAn evening update.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/3hl2ybg
Im not convinced my (iv) has ended [if in fact it is (iv)]. "Looks" somewhat like a 5 up. If RSI moves down, but continues to hold 40 level or above, then this weakens bearish case. 60 level should hold rally attempt(s) to maintain bearish bias. Just one perspective.
DeleteET, I played they gold triangle really lightly cause not sure which way it would break. Is there any other clues I can look for as to discern upward or downward.
ReplyDeleteI was looking at the EWO, trendlines, and retraces. Wondering what else I could have used.
I tried to suggest: 1) the longest wave into the triangle, 2) the Dollar. Other than that, there is 'always' risk in a triangle. One has to learn to work with the risk - like you did; playing it lightly.
DeleteThx for the response.
DeleteES 5-min: Might watch for an expanding diagonal count lower, particularly if the second level of overlap (orange) occurs.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s7w8k
TJ
IF this diagonal occurs properly it might be of the 5-3-5-3-5 form.
DeleteThe second level of overlap (orange) has just occurred.
Delete.well, a downward diagonal invalidated as price exceeded the high. And the only way price went over the top, was with three waves down, and an upward diagonal.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s7xc0
This 'may' have implications for the overall count, but too hard to say right now. As I have said, (X) could be a FLAT, or a triangle or a multiple zigzag, too.
TJ
..here is a 'plausible' channel count version that might work, too, starting with a contracting leading diagonal.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s7xnb
The waves are very compressed.
TJ
..now up over the high again, likely the ((B)) wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s7y26
TJ
Update to prior chart. Thoughts
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/dvO3olQ
IF my updated chart posts, the triangle scenario is DOA (if it wasnt already from the start, lol). The wxy still looks possible, but a diag. up looks viable (at this point) as well.
ReplyDeletePS - Diag up negated.
DeleteYesterday's Hammer signal on the daily SPX chart indicating a possible end to the current down leg is being confirmed by the required up day today.
ReplyDeleteSPX Cash trying to close the hourly gap at 3,318.56.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..cash has now closed the gap; likely wave v up in the futures.
Delete..this is what it currently looks best as,
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s7ycb
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete