Here is the daily chart of ES Futures after a more than 120 point loss (more intraday). In some legitimate questions some readers asked if I was sure this was a wave four based on the point loss.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Likely Minute iv |
Again, the question avoids thinking in terms of probabilities. Today's move could be only three waves down. The tail end of the move was lower but not too impulsive. Price hit the 18-day SMA and backed off a bit. Such a move could complete wave iv in it's entirety, which seems unlikely due to the short number of days. Equally, or perhaps more likely, such a move might start a triangle which could last a number of days and precede the final move up.
A couple of things are clear. Wave minute iv may not close down over minute i, or it would likely invalidate a further impulse. Further, in consideration of degree labeling, wave iv should not become longer than the longest part of wave Minor B, the 15 June low.
The daily slow stochastic lost its embedded reading and touched the 18-day objective all in the same day. The only day that the embedded reading can be re-established is tomorrow - which is the payroll employment report. Depending on the data, things could get whippy or continue lower.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Carryover link (if interested) -
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/wTJJHEd
Joe,
ReplyDeleteWave iv if develops into a triangle could also mimic wave iv of A wave, where it makes a new high and still stays a triangle.
Weakness before close was a 3 wave b of 2 up. Everything else seems very impulsive though.
It 'could' be a 'running triangle' with a higher b wave, but often the triangle before a last wave is just a regular symmetrical triangle or the type of triangle known as a barrier triangle. In both those cases the b wave is either equal to or lower than wave iii.
DeleteThanks as always/
DeleteA smaller C wave down would be ideal.
ReplyDeleteSame question re size of decline / wave 4. That was almost as large as June decline.
ReplyDelete..see response below @ 13:56 EDT. TJ
DeleteSo i think today we completed A wave of a triangle. Now it will trade between high and today low for few weeks
ReplyDelete50% retrace in cash of today's decline on the rebound. Until the rebound high is exceeded, there is legitimate risk that today was 1-2 of a wave 3 down. If rebound high is exceeded, probably heading for a strong rally. AAPL and TSLA seem to have 5 up from the low. Lots of risk at the moment.
ReplyDeleteCurrently, with 139 candles on the SPX 5-min chart, there are only three-waves down. Further, this is on a divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator. So, at this point, this puts (a), (b), (c) as the main count downward, and red i, ii, iii as the alternate. It is the market that must make the case for an impulse lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sODH16fo/
Trading up over the channel shown, and back testing the channel line would go along way suggesting the case for wave iv complete, or as a triangle.
TJ
I have noticed that IWM has broken a 5 months trend line, if it can not close back to above the trend line, the broken will be confirmed. That will be a bad omen.
ReplyDeleteComrades I don't wish to state the obvious but NQ appears to be one index with 5 authentic waves down. Oscillator peaking on Wave iii and back to neutral on Wave iv. Wave iii = Wave i x 2.90. Tech has been taken to the woodshed on a comparative basis during this decline and with 5 more likely waves down this is unlikely to change.
ReplyDeleteI should also mention the close net relationship between Wave ii and Wave iv on NQ where Wave ii = Wave iv x 1.023.
ReplyDeleteCash and futures have now both beat their prior 12:30 - 13:00 EDT highs, and they are above the channel, and the out-rigger.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/edaE4BAi/
TJ
ES is currently at 3445. If this wave now, gets above 3,451 before overlapping 3,416, then a truncation bottom must have occurred at the 11:30 am low, and this wave up will likely impulse. IF this up wave stops short and overlaps downward then an outside chance of a leading diagonal with three wave sequences.
ReplyDeleteTJ
There is ES 3,451; so the second segment up is officially longer than the first segment up. This likely means that the 11:30 am low was a truncation low, and price is impulsing up. (The only way for this not to happen is to form an extremely rare expanding diagonal, and the current price movement does not suggest it).. Here's a chart.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s0xa0
TJ
TJ
Looking at NQ 5 mins from the bottom.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Yak9W29
NQ has a shorter wave up, and downward overlap going into the settle.
Delete..the level of overlap in the ES futures would be 3,415.00; watch it carefully.
ReplyDeleteNo clear answers by the futures settlement, but price is just points away from overlap in the ES. In the NQ, it's a bit different, this expanding diagonal works in every detail, and can be counted as a 1, or an A wave up. Not in the ES, though.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s0xjh
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete