Based on the prior posts, we said yesterday we were expecting five-waves-down in the form of a flat wave. Today, that did occur as five non-overlapping waves downward, shown below.
As a result, the minimum target expectation of a flat was met as prices traded below the prior a wave low, shown. The waves were choppy and tricky. Following the five-waves-down, prices traded sideways-to-upward, and remained in the downward channel shown.
Given the Presidential debates tonight, one might watch for a break up out of the channel or a break down through it. There is still room for a larger fourth wave lower on the half-hourly chart if the market wishes to continue lower, but it is not required. Interestingly, cash has met its lower channel line; futures have not.
In no case may the current upward wave trade above the b wave terminus and still be a downward wave. Further, if the current upward wave becomes longer in price or time than micro wave ((2)), it suggests that the market is no longer impulsing downward.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
From Thursday low, 3 up is the long wave, 1 is short. In forecasting a wave 5, can we do better than "often 5 will equal 1"? What outcomes do you think would be most likely?
ReplyDeletea) five = one, b) five = 0.618 x net (one-through-three), c) five = three.
DeleteThoughts on end of the month and 401k money inflow?
ReplyDeleteLooks like overnight dip was in the area of larger 4th projection
ReplyDeletePulled back within the area from midline to top of base channel.
DeleteHere's a chart update going into the open.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/sb2bq
TJ
Didnt we already have 5 waves down? (15min chart at top of post)
DeleteThanks
The DOW cash is the first to confirm it's higher high fifth wave.
ReplyDeleteWhats a probability of this being 3 of 3 from low...if they agree on 2.2 T package
ReplyDeleteCouldn't that also occur as a minute-c wave of Minor B?
DeleteTJ
Now if no progress on package then this would turn into 5 wave move by tomorrow
ReplyDeleteHere's an update on the ES 5-min chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/sb3-m
TJ
What if the the very deep wave 2 at ES and YM in fact is a failed C of the 5th wave of the minor A diagonal? If that's the case, we should "only" count minor B as ABC from 3228 ES?
ReplyDeleteOnly ending diagonals can fail, not leading ones. So, the best alternate 'can be' that the entire move ended there. However, if it did, then the move down counts as the triple zigzag w-x-y-x-z (remember that is always the alternate for a diagonal - the three zigzags that make it up) and that would be the (X) wave. But, again, that seems way too short for an Intermediate (X) wave. The last Intermediate sized wave was from Feb to March of 2020. This down wave in no way compares to that wave in size.
DeleteTJ
not to diminish your prediction, but in general "all" gaps get filled on the indexes. 100% of them.
ReplyDeleteHere's another update on the ES 5-min chart. Three waves down for (A) as a flat, three waves up for (B), now looks like headed down into the (C) wave of Micro ((4)).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/sb5uz
TJ
ES .. now one way to count the up wave as completed, and another allows the larger fourth wave.
ReplyDelete..you kind of have to 'pick-your-poison' on this one. Its a fifth wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/sb6-q
TJ
Fifth in cash and 4th in futures..Will give time for futures to trade extra sessions tonight
ReplyDeleteCurrent observations:
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/i7DiIAB
ES now attacking lower modified channel line.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/sb7be
TJ
ES now through the low and has gone through three-pivot points on the way down; R2, R1 and PP.
DeleteWhile the cash pivot points have been a little more accurate today,it's just uncanny how well they have worked on both indexes.
ReplyDeleteno one is trading a 70 year old chart... we are talking in the present sense of the markets here...
ReplyDelete