Hourly cash today filled a downward gap, shown on the chart below, with a five-wave-up sequence. And, even though the potential fourth wave location in yesterday's downward channel count did not technically invalidate, this suggested that a triangle or flat is being made as per the revised chart, below.
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| SP500 Cash Index - 1 Hr - Triangle or Flat |
Today there were five waves up. This occurred after the down wave traveled to 1.618 x the minute ((a)) wave, upward, on a divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO). The ((b)) wave downward counts best as a three-wave sequence. The 1.618 Fibonacci level can suggest either the triangle, first, or the flat. It would be less common for a triangle to directly follow a diagonal. But, it is also fairly rare for flats to have 1.618 ((b)) waves. Thus, the odds are roughly equal for the two patterns.
IF a Flat is made, then the ((c)) wave up will be in five waves. And, it might, or it might not exceed the level of the minute ((a)) wave. As a "running flat" or "truncated flat", it might stop short.
The new minuet (a) wave up, has already upwardly overlapped the Minor A wave down. In both cash and futures, the minute ((b)) wave is shorter in both price and time than the Minor A wave down. These are very difficult and compressed waves for beginners to be learning on, as there are few good impulse sequences. This is obviously by FED design; they are trying to make sure it is difficult to profit from any downward movement.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Can see on the daily SPX that we are just retesting the old rally channel. Brace for impact, IMO the C-wave goes 4.618x kaboom.
ReplyDelete..but now you can connect the prior highs with the upper channel line, and draw a new lower parallel from the 23 March low. Doesn't look quite so dire. Also, your downward impulsive wave - at this point - does not count very well.
DeleteIn other words, something like this ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s7z4u
Mi channel es su channel.
TJ
Hmmm, yes, I see. Our charts are LOG and linear, respectively, too.
DeleteStarting from the high, SPY cash seems to be breaking the down channel already albeit on a very short term (1-min) chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s8brm
TJ
GOLD 4-Hr has beat the prior A wave low of 1,874.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Now suggested to watch the new upper channel line.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s8d61
TJ
Here's the (a) wave up, and it's near 50% retrace, lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s8dfs
TJ
Given it took 2 days for A and we are only half a day in correction of A so far. How does it square up or it doesn't matter when we are in abc waves?
ReplyDeleteThks
..there are ways for it not to be done yet; here is one such way ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s8e8k
As always, with corrections, one needs to understand they can be unclear and required patience and flexibility.
TJ
..here is the new channel based on the new lower low
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s8en8
TJ
According to your internal measures and metrics, what are the chances of a running flat for B having already completed?
ReplyDeleteNow under the channel and beyond 61.8%.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..now have two roughly equal movements in a revised channel.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s8f1o
TJ
..now down to 78.6% retrace; beyond here it gets dicey.
DeleteGiven that the down wave is > 78.6% now, if the bottom gives way, consider this as the best alternate for the triangle count. I will post this tonight.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s8fnq
TJ