Bottom line: the diagonal that looks and counts the best on the 4-Hr chart is the one in the chart below. Each of the sub-waves of the minute waves is shown. They are shown as simple a,b,c instead of the required minuet (a), (b), (c) just for chart clarity.
The lead-off wave on the left is an a-b-c where the c wave is itself an ending diagonal. There is really nice divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) on each of the subsequent lower lows waves, the pattern converges in both price and time, and price has now, today, pierced the upper declining diagonal trend line.
In piercing the upper trend line, the upward Minor B wave now is already a Fibonacci 23.6% x the Minor A wave. This is actually already sufficient for a Minor B wave, but it certainly can grow longer if it likes.
Today, we counted the upward wave from Minor A as a potential double zigzag, but it went a tad farther than expected, the (y) = (w) at 100% level. Therefore, while we won't know until we see Monday's trading, it is possible to make a larger impulse wave, up, particularly if price hits the 3,320 level in the futures which would be a 1.618 extension, as in the chart below.
We note that on the half-hour time frame, the Elliott Wave Oscillator is still green, rising, and has a higher high. Further, there will be no downward count until the Minor A wave is breached lower again - whenever that might occur.
Have a good start to the evening and to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Ld leaves all sorts of options wave1, or A....
ReplyDeletesure does .. good understanding.
DeleteThe diagonal looks good, especially in light of what I'm seeing on the
ReplyDelete30 min.
Thanks!
https://imgur.com/8RN3R1b
Certainly possible.
ReplyDeletehello
ReplyDeleteTJ wrote : "where the c wave is itself an ending diagonal"
if it was an ending it should have retraced to the beginning of the pattern in less time then it formed? but it never made such a retrace?
sincerely
KAVI
Good question this..not listed as a 'rule' or a 'guideline' in The Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter. For that reason, I'm thinking the reason it is not listed as a 'rule' or a 'guideline' is there might be exceptions in triangles and diagonals.
DeleteA low probability (but possible) plan B for cash.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/ZnKiMVk
..problem is in the alternate count, I can't tell which waves you are counting as threes, and which as fives. And, then the recent up count from the low has to be resolved as three. Otherwise, I can see some probability for it.
DeleteET you state that "... Minor B wave now is already a Fibonacci 23.6% x the Minor A wave. This is actually already sufficient for a Minor B wave ...". If Minor B were to end at this point it would make Minor B shorter in time and price than circle II. Would that not be a degree violation?
ReplyDeleteNo. It wouldn't be a degree violation. I have called this out to others before: this is the style of thinking I call, 'counting waves backwards in time', not counting them as the market makes them. That said, it is also quite realistic to think that minor B would become larger than minute ((iv)), and, if the 'deep retrace' of the diagonal occurs, it would likely also be larger than minute ((ii)). So, let me rephrase. It is an 'expectation' that Minor B becomes larger than minute ((iv)), but it is not a requirement.
DeleteJust fyi - the DJIA cash index has problems counting it like a diagonal. So I went to the Dow futures to see if I could disprove the count above. Maybe there was a wave that was too long in time, or maybe there was a flat for one of the motive waves instead of a zigzag. But, when I went to the Dow futures, here is what I found.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nTd8Dnwz/
The Dow Futures (YM) count as cleanly as the ES futures. Each wave contracts in price and time, and each wave can be counted as a zigzag.
TJ
..what I do find interesting in the Dow futures, short term is that the up waves 'may' be counted as a FLAT, with the typical 90% retracement.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EqdeLdJV/
Price is not out of the channel to the downside, yet.
TJ
If you try to match it with sp cash. We have abc (move from 3400 was clear 5 waves)...so abc for A in cash and ld for A in futures...
DeletePretty sure cash SPX can be counted the same. There is a minor trend line deviation, but otherwise similar.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iVxmqztF/
TJ
[IF] we were to open down, sell off quickly to new low, then turn back up, could this be seen as a "c" of ((v)) of A? Unlikely, but just curious.
ReplyDeleteThanks
If this count is correct at NDX, it might explain why the recent up move at ES and YM might be flats and not 1-2.
ReplyDeleteI've really tried to count NDX as a diagonal or impulse from top..but this is what I see:
https://invst.ly/s9-rqhttps://invst.ly/s9-rq
Maybe this is the reason why DJI is hard to count as an diagonal or impulse. https://invst.ly/s9--j
ReplyDelete(i) is shorter than 1, and (ii) is shorter than 2 as of now.
And it's possible to count (iii) as an impulse.
ES 30-min now has the 1.618 wave up, and note the confluence of the R1 daily pivot and the 18-day SMA.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qiZywQBV/
TJ
Hi,
DeleteI am new to your site. I started to follow this week.
Great work.
I am abit confused.
Does the mean this is end of Minor B with C to follow?
Or this is just the first leg up cause I understand that you wrote you will continue to count up unless it drops below Minor A.
Thanks .
Amazing to watch the interaction. Google "Yardeni Research central banks balance sheets" and grab the report.
ReplyDeleteDJI observations.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/8Rmp92c
DJI observations:
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/IGMA9PE