Move-Up Monday

After finding support at the 3,200 price level, the lower daily Bollinger Band, and the 100-day SImple Moving Average (SMA), shown below, price suggested in Friday's post  that the diagonal wave formed in the downward direction was completed, and that there was a break of the upper diagonal trend line. Today's upward gap and price subsequent follow-through made a wave that was larger than minute ((iv)) and larger than minute ((ii)) of the Minor A wave down. Therefore, degree analysis also confirms the beginning of a Minor B wave up.

ES Futures - Daily - Minor B

Now that Minor B has begun, the Elliott Wave analysis of it should consider the following factors: the daily slow stochastic - which was embedded - has not yet fully worked off its oversold condition. When the daily slow stochastic loses its embedded status, price and the 18-day SMA often try to come together. Today price missed the 18-day SMA by about 2 - 3 points as of the settle. One should note that the upper daily Bollinger Band is folding down under the prior high as of this time.

With about 105 candles on the chart, The Eight-Fold-Path-Method (see featured post) suggests that a fourth wave (iv) could form as a flat wave down into the area of the prior wave iv. There is a gap in the futures from Sunday night. Often, these fill more a bit more quickly that the ones in cash. Since wave (iii) is  the extended wave in the sequence, with greater than a 1.618 extension, then wave (iv) should not overlap wave (i) without having implications for the larger count.

It is possible this up wave - if it completes as an impulse - is forming the minute ((a)) wave of the Minor B wave. If overlap on wave (i) occurs before a new high, we will deal with it at that time.

Have a good start to your evening and to your week.

TraderJoe