Today's lower low confirmed that a diagonal wave likely has or is taking place. You can read the prior post's comments to see how this has developed. Here again is the ES 4-Hr chart.
A lower low tomorrow that meets the criteria of ((v)) less than ((iii)) would pretty much cement the nature of the diagonal as the 3-3-3-3-3 variety. Today, we counted only "three-up" from the low, and then five-down from the high. So, the lower low is likely (not imperative).
The blue curve on the chart is the EMA-34, the green dots are the EMA-13. Today we said we might expect some resistance at the EMA-13, and that is what occurred in real time. You can see the tail at that level.
If the lower low forms and meets the criteria, we will diagram the three-wave internal structure at that time, and provide a better perspective on the daily chart.
Have a very good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Hello Joe, What do think the diagonal implies? Some sort of correction and higher - or a deep retrace followed by lower. How would an overthrow of he lower trend line, if it occurs, affect your potential counts? Thanks
ReplyDeleteIf tomorrow or the next day proves it as 3-3-3-3-3 it ups the case for a corrective A wave lower, to be followed by a B, up, and C down. I do not take this lightly as the C down could be pretty intense.
DeleteIs there a minimum time requirement or guideline for B relative to A or could it even be a just a few days for example?
DeleteIs it because it would be a diagonal A that forecasts an intense C or is it non-EW considerations? Thanks
@JoeM .. as I have said before, there are no minimum time requirements for B waves. It should have 'some' proportionality to A, and perhaps the diagonal and it's B wave will form a larger channel.
DeleteYes, the diagonal could allow a 1.618 C wave, not just a C = A wave.
Don't know for sure yet, but this is one potential way to finish the minute ((v)) wave as a 'three-wave' sequence. So far, we have lower highs. But lower lows are needed.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s9b2h
This count provides a clean invalidation point as the high of micro ((C)) should not be exceeded in a triangle.
TJ
..just considering alternates .. nothing has invalidated yet. Best alternate for b might be a double zigzag. But so far, above count is ok.
Delete...ES 5-min new high. Double zz option looking better.
DeleteThoughts.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/4lSGpaq
ii crossed EMA-34, too, just not with a close, perhaps.
DeleteDXY looks like it wants one more high as well
DeleteWhat would a Double ZZ look like, could you please provide a chart
ReplyDeleteThanks
The double zigzag for the b wave would look something like this. It is the ((W))-((X))-((Y)). Internally in each wave is a smaller a-b-c.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KbHx6Edn/
TJ
I have us just a couple points short of equality between yesterday's rally and today's.
ReplyDelete(currently)
Equality reached (cfd).
DeleteAs far as I can tell, cash is invalidating a "b" wave. More tonight.
ReplyDeleteAre you thinking that diagonal A ended at Thursday's low?
DeleteET the count I am looking at would have the circle II as the B wave high of a flat. Circle III would be I, II & III of C, remembering that III = I x 1.618. Then a wave IV triangle with today's high as wave C of the triangle. Appears to work for both ES & YM.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete