On the daily chart of the ES futures, yesterday's fourth wave marker locations were not violated.
 |
| ES Futures - Daily - Not Invalidated |
As the intraday chart of the SPX, below, shows there are currently only three-waves down within about 160 candles. The (c) wave is shorter than the (a) wave and occurred on a divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO).
Around mid-day we showed the above chart and suggested to watch to see if the down channel was breached. It was - substantially. And price is now trading in an up channel. The NQ counts cleanly as a potential expanding diagonal upward (see chart HERE). The ES does not yet count like anything, but might still be working on it. The NQ's diagonal might be an "a" wave or a "i" wave up. That would require an eventual higher high before a lower daily low.
Depending on the overnight and weekend news and price movement, there may be some more clues to the type of patterns that will be formed. If we've seen the bottom of a fourth wave, then a triangle is certainly a possibility, or so is just a quick trip over the high.
This additional chart was added after the close to show the 0.382 Fibonacci relationship, the bounce off of the lower channel, and that wave minute iv is currently shorter than the largest wave in Minor B.
Also significant are the very, very clear five wave progression within wave minute iii, each of which follows degree labeling guidelines in that each of these waves is shorter in price and time than minute i, and that there is not yet any overlap with wave minute i.
Time will tell. Patience, flexibility and calm remain the guide words. Have a good start to the evening and to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Proposed bearish alt: the dive at the open was an air pocket irregular b of 2. W2 then retraced most of b and completed before the close, W1 and W2 nearly equal on time. Big dive due next week, really until the September Fed meeting can throw some Policy at it.
ReplyDeleteI won't say you can't be right. But I will say the following. In your chart, wave "3" certainly "looks like" a three wave pattern - which would be incorrect in all except an expanding diagonal. I will also say that your "1's" and "3's" are not at the lower left extremities. While not impossible somehow, it bucks the odds so much that I wouldn't call it a realistic alternate.
DeleteDelete
From 3000 where the 3rd or C wave started...the correction was 38 percent of that
DeleteA view of futures throughout the day via RSI. An interesting day.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/7xdWkUP
An additional chart and commentary was added to the main post after the close. Also, from what I can tell, both futures overlapped downward in the after-hours session.
ReplyDeleteTJ
This channel is misleading - drawing it around pattern of higher degree to make it look normal. This move lower is too big to be part of the wave from the end of June. It is of the same degree.
ReplyDeleteThis is the channel of your impulse it was broken and w4 retraced 62% of w3 - https://invst.ly/s0zf4
The channel which you are using is for impulse like this - https://invst.ly/s0zfb
I am not saying this counts are right or wrong, but we have to face the facts - it is of the same degree like the decline in June and the move up in July-August.
Everything what you are explaining about wave degree is great stuff I do not know why are you ignoring it.
Just a caution: the quotes you are using in the second chart are incorrect; the ES never did the spike shown in the second chart at wave 1. Try TradingView or broker quotes and you'll see that spike is incorrect. Secondly, and more to the point, I am definitely not ignoring degree considerations. A triangle corrects initial degree violations by the (e) wave closing mid-range if it does. That's what happened with the Minor 4 triangle I called ahead of time in 2018. The problem - the 'reason' there is a Fourth Wave Conundrum as I have written about - is one can not be 'sure' a triangle will form.
DeleteTJ
Joe
DeleteThe above writer placed B wave at 2965 low. IF true then on a weekly chart it seems that 5 waves C is finished.
Comment?
One last RSI oriented chart, monthly from 2009 (close only).
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/VMnzwdy
Possibilities, not [necessarily] probabilities.
DeleteThe count becomes very simple if we assume the move up from March is impulsive then 1 to 3000, 2 expanded flat, 3 from 3000 to present high and now we are in 4th (38 retrace of third move and probably a triangle). Someone mentioned abt weak ewo. Tbe weekly ewo of this move from March is much higher than previous moves
ReplyDeleteI try to be patient, but it is very difficult to be patient when certain people pay almost no attention to one's work. That count is not being used as the wave 3 would violate the 0 - 2 trend line for a third wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s1439
Do you have any suggestions how I can get certain people to pay better attention to the work?
TJ
Lol
DeleteAnyone want some AAPL pie to go with your coffee, see:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/blog/2020/09/01/stupid-rich-skew/?mc_cid=c77c7f62f0&mc_eid=f9b8b6bc26
Here is a more complete explanation, assuming it is reported accurately.
DeleteNASDAQ Whale
TJ
That explains it- Great Share Thanks.
Deletejoe you wote above: the bounce off of the lower channel, and that wave minute iv is currently shorter than the largest wave in Minor B. Are these not the same degree? Wouldnt we want 4 to be shorter than B? and i iii v smaller than A? And if iv goes bigger than B its going to overlap i as well.
ReplyDelete..again, what if iv becomes a triangle; like the Minor 4 in 2018? Recall?
DeleteFor those of us that weren't part of this blog in 2018- Can you please share a link?
DeleteThanks in advance
See the paragraphs under the second chart, where the Minor 4 triangle is discussed. It is only one such discussion. There were even earlier ones where I suggested that since wave Minor 2 in 2016 was a FLAT, the b wave of Minor 4 would likely not go over the high, and it very well could form a triangle for alternation with the flat.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2018/02/no-assumptions.html
TJ
As Always- Thanks.
Deletedoe the teminal ewo or lowest ewo matter in a 4th wave treiangle. can it be >-50% on wave A?
ReplyDeleteall triangle measurements pertain to wave (e) only.
DeleteET, Not related to recent waves, but in your experience does the 0-2 rule work in impulses with the first wave as the extended wave?
ReplyDeleteyes.
DeleteSome thoughts on our equal weighted version.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/wimwcnd
Cash and futures both have new marginal lows. Lower daily Bollinger Band at 3,300 might be an eventual target. Pattern undetermined at this time. 'Might' be part of a diagonal lower.
ReplyDeleteThere is now an expanding diagonal, upwards, that meets the rules or a triple zigzag. Watch the retrace.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dtTVeQcQ/
TJ
..lower diagonal trend line is broken; so diagonal is probably now over.
Deleteinfo only..down wave nearing 78.6%, and has taken more time than up wave.
Delete..now five waves up off the low, and beat the prior high in less bars. Chart below.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s25i9
TJ
..if the low holds it's a double-zigzag down.
Delete..if the low does not hold, we may be able to start counting in this manner ...
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s27rb
..the market seems intent on just grinding and grinding today.
TJ
Tj
DeleteIt could also be impulse down with 1 finishing at 3450- Then big B wave ending at Fri Morning low occurring at 3400. C up to 3455 on Fri and now in 3rd down.
..SPY and ES futures both have the new low.
DeleteLooks good. Some further available info.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/nI6LDo4
@GW .. for some reason this link does not come up. It just 'spins'.
DeleteI was cleaning out charts and must have nixed it as well. Sorry. If I could delete the comment I would, but cant see how.
DeleteThanks
TJ,
ReplyDeleteThank-you for the chart along with the update.
https://invst.ly/s287k
ReplyDeleteSo, now you want me to believe that a second wave, 2, retraced 14% of it's wave 1? That meets neither of the major services guidelines for second waves. That might be a "B" wave, it can not - for any practical purpose - be a wave 2.
Delete..except in the sense of the potential diagonal I sketched out @14:34 EDT, above.
DeleteWhat are Major service guidelines? And where does that say, Its a certain "rule" that W2 can retrace to?
Delete@fibo .. c'mon man; this is the last time I will say it. The common guidelines for a second wave are 50 - 62%; they can be deeper (up to 99%, although Neely disfavors those), and they can be shallower. Both Prechter and Neely agree that the smallest wave 2 is generally 38%, and that is when there is an extended first wave.
DeleteNeely even says "for waves to be considered of the same degree in an impulse, like 1 & 2, then there needs to be 'at least' a 30% deviation between them". Less than that and it is 'likely' the B wave of a zigzag.
Those how the "probabilities" are determined in Elliott Wave work. You can buck those probabilities if you wish to. You can do absolutely anything you want. I will stay with the probabilities and the odds.
TJ
Now both of Friday targets (neg HD) have been reached this morning (3339.3, 3330).
ReplyDeletec of 3 of a contracting diagonal from all time high?
ReplyDelete..likely.
DeleteNYAD daily divergence confirmed today.
ReplyDelete/ES count, starts off with a little LD. Big W3 down now underway, will free-fall once we drop out of the rally channel around 3200.
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty certain that count violates principles of degree labeling because wherever your i of 3, and iii of 3 are, they are longer than the initial wave 1. In other words, you are calling a larger wave a smaller degree wave, and that would not follow the principles of degree labeling.
Delete