In Friday's post we suggested watching the falling parallel trend channel on the hourly or 2-hr chart. Today, as you can see from the chart below, price got a little above that channel.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Above Down Channel |
So, with a wave that is now almost as long in time as the suggested downward wave, there is the making of an (a),(b),(c) corrective wave sequence upward. Today could be some or all of the (c) wave upward. The upward wave (c) could extend if it likes. It would be good to see a more reasonable Fibonacci retracement level, and a little more time taken to the move. Yes, it is possible the (c) wave might morph into a diagonal wave, too.
GOLD is still in it's triangle on the 4-Hr chart. Wednesday is the FED decision. Of course the only thing they're not thinking about .. is thinking about it.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Fwiw, I have a pos. HD target on ES of 3403 if the current low holds.
ReplyDeleteYour (iii) and (iv) assumption is wrong. I don't know about Neelly blah bla... etc but EWT was discovered by Ralph Nelson Elliot. And According to him, " No part of iv can be inside the area of i and ii- Unless its an EDT.
ReplyDeleteit's a leading diagonal; (iv) is allowed to overlap in any diagonal. Have you heard of the differences between leading and ending diagonals? You may not have; so I am asking.
DeleteYes I have.Maybe you forgot but as a matter of fact few weeks back we had a conversation about them- When I said LD is always 5-3-5-3, and also pointed out that Ld"s weren't and AREN'T part of Elliot's work . Its something Prechter "observed".
Delete..actually Fibo, if you go back to Elliott's original work, he's shows several examples of up trends where the fourth wave overlaps. You are making things up.
Delete..it is 'true' as best as I can tell from reading the original papers, that Elliott did not 'name' any pattern, as a leading diagonal; so I stand by what I said.
DeleteLast night, with ES around 3375ish, I submitted a post providing a target of 3403. This was useful, timely info when submitted. Some 13+ hrs later, as I write this, that post still has not shown up here. Thus, the post has been renderded useless. We have indeed reached the target amount.
ReplyDeleteIm not even sure this post will show up at any point, but should it do so, I can say that I will no longer make an effort to provide timely info here in light of the way posts are delayed. Its pointless.
Also, I have deleted all charts Ive provided, thus links will not function.
Going forward, I will treat this site merely as one to monitor, not one at which to exchange ideas. This appears to be (effectively) the intent of the site. I will abide by that. :o)
..apologies .. I had doctor check-up yesterday, and couldn't monitor as much as I wanted.
DeleteJoe, hope that check-up went well!
Deleteall good Roy; thx!
DeleteGold d wave looks complete.
ReplyDeletepls see 10:41 EDT, below.
DeleteSo, with the ES 15-min currently wedging and on a RSI divergence (at present) then price is on 'overlap watch'
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s4-yj
The divergence (& any overlap, if it occurs) might indicate a possible diagonal.
TJ
I could be wrong on this one. It's easy to be incorrect on triangles ("Trading is Treacherous in Triangles"), but this is the way I am view Gold's triangle at the moment.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s5053
This triangle points downward, as best as I can tell, as the largest movement was a movement 'into' the top of the triangle. Yes, there is a very, very clear alternate (shown in red), and likely only movement out of the triangle will tell the story.
TJ
Seen that as well, but looks like nice 4th wave to fit an impulse from 1458. I have to do some channel work tonight.
Delete..possible; that's the problem with 'roughly equal' alternates.
Delete..doesn't have to work this way, but I was thinking (besides the longer term count presented earlier), that if the US Dollar Index is in a fourth wave, and retraces to 38% or more, then GOLD might head in the opposite direction - just a thought.
Delete..a chart is below.. like I said, not for certain, yet there are 125 daily candles on the chart of the DX. The EWO is withing fourth wave territory, there is a way to count with altneration, and there is a FED report due out tomorrow.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s51qx
TJ
and ES lurking around bottom of channel drawn since March low.
DeleteBrief ES update, the ES 15-min has broken its up trend line from the recent low. Overlap has not quite occurred yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s53sa
TJ
@3:05 PM EDT, the futures and cash now have the downward overlap.
DeleteLooks like one more up to complete some kind of triangle. Close back over 3400 suggests we may no be quite done. Also expect VIX divergence on final move higher.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete