Today was the first of the month, and saw the expected inflows we discussed yesterday. We showed the hourly triangle on the ES futures. Today, price broke out of and made the new high confirming the triangle behavior.
For those wondering if new highs can yet be made, it would seem like they can. Although the NQ's stands for the Nasdaq 100 Futures, if we look at the NDX cash channel, it is possible that it could still make an expanded flat down to hit the lower channel line for a fourth wave, and then make a fifth wave up, as per the chart below.
 |
| NDX Cash Index - 15-min - Channel Count |
The futures might be faking-us-out in to thinking there is an ending diagonal top, when it is only a (B) wave, up. The top is not likely an ending diagonal on the cash index, as the wave ((1)) up, on the lower left looks like a leading diagonal. Therefore, wave ((5)) should be an impulse. If the fourth wave were an expanded flat, it would alternate well with a sharp second wave.
This might correspond with a larger wave two in the ES futures to back-test the upper hourly triangle trend line, as right now the move out of the triangle looks a tad short of target.
Well, let's see how it goes. Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
4hr gold triangle?
ReplyDeleteTJ- sorry to bother you, but trying to understand what degrees are being used in your chart below:
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r-cgv
Are you using submicro [ie (1)] and micro [ie ((1))]?
Trading View doesnt even have a ((1)) on a small degree.
My question on the chart was that it appeared that the ((2)) [what I see as a higher degree] is much smaller than (2) [which I see as a lower degree]. Thanks in advance for clarifying.
I agree. ES topping now. 3541.62 was probably it, some chance of slightly higher in the coming hours - could possibly be making a tiny 4 now. 2092 top call on TSLA (423) at the end of 5 from August 11 extended to 9. AAPL also has 5 from August 11, 5th started from Friday close, possibly a tiny bit left there. Focusing on ES now though and not concerned about a few points this way or that.
ReplyDeleteIt seems like the markets are primed and ready for a failed fifth. Looking at the Median Price Revenue Ratios of the S&P 500 by Valuation Deciles, the top 4 (a Fibonacci 39%) have exceeded their Feb 2020 highs while the remainder have not. It also looks like the bottom 30% are currently below their valuation levels in 2000, per John Hussman's latest post: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200901/
ReplyDeleteHe closes with a message to Chairman Powell, "Nobody needs your promise to lay on that button, Jay...."
It could be that the Fed's last policy change will be followed by actions and announcements that deflate enthusiasm.
Here's a possible way to set up for a Head & Shoulders top, with 3,535 as the neck line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RNvCkWFg/
TJ
..just fyi - ES now up over upper daily Bollinger Band; and up over intraday 30-min upper Bollinger Band.
DeleteOutside of monthly BB as well (for August). Pretty rare event
DeleteTj is there an upper limit where your count of this being B may get invalidated. Thks. Days like today makes one ponder
ReplyDeleteHere's the NDX chart, updated from above.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ItALHQTM/
TJ
By the end of the day, the NDX did get over the high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/T17eam0W/
TJ
Agree on AAPL Amit
ReplyDeleteI ran two Fibonacci extension calcs pre-split and posted in the comments to the 8/21 post:
Fibonacci extensions on AAPL from two recent moves, using monthly TradeStation data:
Begin Dt (Low) - End Dt (Hi) - Retrace Dt (Low) - Fib 85.44% - Fib 161.8% - Fib 261.8%
5/2016 (89.47) - 10/2018 (233.47) - 1/2019 (142.00) - - 374.99 - 518.99
1/2019 (142.00) - 1/2020 (327.85) - 3/2020 (212.61) - 371.40 - 513.32
The first cluster (371.40 & 374.99) coincided with highs of 372.38 and 370.47 6/26/2020 to 7/3/2020
It will be interesting to see what occurs with the two significant ratios (161.8 and 261.8) that intersect between 513.32 and 518.99.
Adjusting for the split, the 161.8 and 261.8 numbers are 128.33 and 129.75 which pulled AAPL back from today's 137.98 high. If (when) it settles under 128.33, could take a bite out of the ballistic bull.