Based on yesterday's post, we we expecting a downward wave today, as the minuet (b) wave of the possible running triangle shown in yesterday's post. Therefore, we were fully prepared for downward movement today. Last night, the futures added to the gains of yesterday, and the additional wave now makes the up move amorphous. Is it a three-wave sequence or a five-wave sequence? This is exceptionally difficult to discern.
Let me be clear, as of this writing, nothing has invalidated in the potential running triangle count. But, the most recent up wave being either corrective or impulse, and today's very deep wave must force real consideration of this count, as well.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Alternate Diagonal |
This five wave declining and contracting diagonal still needs to be proven-out with a lower low wave that remains shorter than wave minute ((iii)). So, too, does a running triangle need to be proven out. A lower low in futures and cash would invalidate the running triangle count.
This post is being written 10-minutes before today's close. Let's see how it goes. We may or may not get an answer today. If not, tomorrow is equally acceptable. The level to watch is 3,217.75 in the Dec futures.
TraderJoe
..As of the cash close, cash nor futures made a lower low.
ReplyDeleteUpdate to prior 4hr chart. Count wasn't so hot, but not bad on direction, lol.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/olc2Dxi
lol .. any time you wish to drive; let me know.
DeleteJust trying to help. The HD suggested we're going to new lows (which we have now, btw). Also, this was pointed out this morning, before the selloff began, not at day's end. I thought being aware of the possibility was of some value. I guess that's up to each individual as to whether they did as well. I'll leave the driving to you, thanks. Just didnt want you to miss a turn, lol.
Delete"Good call!", I say. I am interested to learn more about HD's. It's giving me some new respect for the RSI indicator. One thing I would like to learn is "Probability of Success vs Failure". Likely there are times when an HD didn't work? Tell me more.
DeleteHow about a running flat. I can count 5 waves in futures last night making it a C. Other the low should hold
ReplyDeleteAs far as I can tell, futures have the new low in the after-hours.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ET can you comment on time and retracement guidelines for a 'B' where 'A' is a diagonal?
ReplyDeleteThere are no very good guidelines other that 'often' in a zigzag wave B comes back to the fourth wave of the prior degree. (It is when the diagonal wave is a "1", that the 'deep retrace' is supposedly looked for.) But since price just bounced off the lower daily Bollinger Band, once the diagonal is confirmed as over, by a break and successful re-test of the upper diagonal trend line, then I would watch how price behaves at the prior fourth wave, and if significantly exceeded, then see if it goes to the 18-day SMA.
DeleteTrying to keep it simple here.
Could be misreading, but looks like the diag. above is 3-3-3-3-3. If so, it would appear that the same move down to ((i)) above was deemed to be 5 waves two days ago?
ReplyDeleteWon't know for sure until the diagonal is confirmed as over. There is one way to count the first down sequence as a -3 and another way as a -5. The middle sequence 'seems' to be a -3, though; hence the confusion with the 'possible' triangle. Loose and flexible is the way to be right now.
DeleteThe diagonal appears to have emerged as the winner. But, at least there is an Elliott wave pattern to work with now.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s8sxn
The pattern provides another clear invalidation level, in that wave ((v)) must remain shorter than wave ((iii)).
TJ
LD possible on NQ daily ?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/zbYm46M
Caution, ES has touch 100 SMA on daily. Ira suggested that might cause bounce.
ReplyDeleteThe ES 4-Hr chart suggests there may be some resistance from the 13-period EMA in this area. Chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s8vvz
TJ
ES 5-min, RSI divergence suggests watching this latest up channel, which has less momentum and more chop than the first move up.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s8vzi
TJ
ES 5-min has the higher high. Revise the channel to incorporate the new fourth wave.
DeleteTJ
The count 'looks' right; but a failed retest of the high, a break below the channel and a back test of lower channel line would be more confirmatory.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s8w-x
TJ
ES 5-min .. first breech of lower channel boundary; watch for overlap on 'a', as that would rule out a further impulse upward.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s8x9h
TJ
..now there is overlap on 'a', up.
Delete..back-test of channel just failed; revisit of lows just became much more possible.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s8xmt
TJ
..now below prior wave ((4)) low of 'c'; more fuel for the fire.
Delete...looks like we're breaching this smaller channel upwards.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s8y4p
TJ
Wait and watch to see if ED's low is taken out in less time than it took to form it.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/CPl7n7e
Could the move up be a ld
ReplyDeletenot 'impossible', but not likely either because wave ((3)) 'takes much more time' than wave 'a'; I checked that before labeling it a-b-c. In a contracting L-D, the waves 'most-often' contract in time too, not just price.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete