Let's remember, if for only a minute, that Ralph Nelson Elliott primarily did his work on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (and some averages that preceded it). The S&P500 was not invented in Ralph's day. Apple & Google? Non-existent.
OK. I get it. I know people hate this count. Most people do not like "B" waves, period. Yet, Ralph said they were a reality.
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| DJIA Futures (YM) - Daily Close - Intermediate (B) |
Yet, from an 'eyeball' perspective, it is hard to deny that every wave above 'fits like a glove'. Yes, the (B) wave is seemingly quite long in time compared to the (A) wave. Still, for the Dow, the pattern has not gone over the 1.618 external retracement of the Intermediate (A) wave as shown by the Fibonacci ruler near the upper border. And, the internal waves of the minor waves have very reasonable proportions to each other.
And look at that channel! Near perfection. From the perspective of 'degree-labeling', there are no 'excuses' that need to be made because the Intermediate (A) wave is too long in price for a Minor wave or a minute wave (as some of the Elliott wave services have suggested). And, the 'X' wave triangle is longer in time than the 'W' wave upward - which means the 'X' wave should at least be of the same degree as 'W', if not of larger degree.
And even counting upward - each of the two waves W, and Y is smaller in price than Intermediate (A). This is another 'excellent fit'. Looking for a third wave? There is no wave yet that exceeds the Minor W wave in length. And oscillators are currently diverging.
But, here's the other thing about this count: if the Intermediate (B) wave ends somewhere in this vicinity - we are still allowing for the fifth wave of diagonal minute ((c)) - then we know exactly what this next downward wave would be labeled. And, so do you!
Well, I hope you have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
P.S. This is the second post this weekend, and if you have not seen the first one, you may wish to read it now.
P.S. This is the second post this weekend, and if you have not seen the first one, you may wish to read it now.
hi joe
ReplyDeleteThe wave iv and v will last how long do you think?
once wave (B) reaches wave (C) will be fast?
Since the new month often brings the inflows from pension funds, company bonuses, etc., then 'perhaps' iv will occur towards the end of Feb, and v at the beginning of March. Then, yes, (C) should be a quickly developing wave.
Delete
ReplyDeleteIn y wave red 2 of tc seemso be too big versus circle b of y
..and yet it overlaps the previous ((a)) wave, especially when OHLC chart is used.
DeleteIt appears to overlap the b of ((b)), but not ((a)) if Im reading your chart correctly. Perhaps Im misreading.
DeleteI am referencing cash, not futures. Sorry.
DeleteYes it’s a obvious degree violation, but admitting that would need updating of bigger chart, so let’s ignore it instead
DeleteEric I'm working off the degree violation rulebook I put together from this site prior to Dec 2018 so it's outdated but I think it's been helpful
Delete@marc, @Erik, @Grey I know people like to get on here and just complain. Instead of doing that I wish they would 'study'. If you look at the chart below, you'll see a similar situation immediately before the 2007 top. A 'seemingly' too large wave. It is larger than any other wave since the whole rise from 2002 (except possibly the 2003 low), on first glance. Yet, there it is.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CwloC6Wr/
And it immediately precedes the top. It does 'not' start another major move higher - except for the topping wave.
TJ
..and in this case - I am 'not' certain - it may be part of the terminal diagonal.
DeleteTJ
My remark above was simply in response to your chart. It was not complaining! I corrected it once I saw I was referring to cash rather than futures in error. Fwiw.
DeleteThanks.
We are going to 3400 folk. Really amazing to see people doing and saying the same thing and expecting different outcomes. At what point does an intelligent obsever say "I was wrong?!
ReplyDeleteRUT?
DeleteSo, here is a view within wave (iii). It is very possible the c wave is not done yet, based on it's internals.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pvrv0
TJ
Here's an update on the re-open. I'd watch the price-length of the waves very, very closely in order to indicate when the 'c' wave of (iii) might be done. The pattern shown is 'as if' completed, but price length confirmation is needed.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pvwi5
TJ
Hi, do you have thoughts for Nikkei index? Yesterday there were news that Japanese economy is slowing and might be heading into recession.
ReplyDeleteMr Martin you are abusing your posting privelege with this crap....
ReplyDeleteI dont see an E wave on gold so it must have been a running correction.
ReplyDelete" A whip and a saw, and one good trend pays for it all."
ReplyDeleteConfusing at the moment
ReplyDeleteWhere is tj when you need him..the only bearish count is that we formeen a Ld otherwise the down move seems like a correction
ReplyDeleteSpx
ReplyDeleteLooks like five-waves-up, in a wedge on the very short term on SPX 5-min.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pwa4b
TJ
Yes still could be bearish if that was C with expanded flat in the morning
ReplyDelete..and now there is downward overlap
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pwagd
TJ
A new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete