The story lately has been seemingly about overnight gaps up which go on to make marginal higher highs and then sell off a bit. Yesterday, we said if there was a higher high today - which we could see one possibility for - just move wave (iii) to the right until we get a clear downward overlap.
Today and yesterday - from late in the day - we were 'almost able' to count an impulse up. It needs one more wave up, perhaps tomorrow; perhaps not. However, that leaves us with this possibility inside a diagonal wave (iii).
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Within Wave (iii) |
Yesterday's current b wave down broke the up-trending diagonal a wave's lower trend boundary. But, it is relatively short in time. This means if an impulse finishes tomorrow and then sinks, there are still two possibilities. It could 1) end wave (iii) with a c wave up, or 2) be only part of a larger b wave flat correction in time and then finish wave (iii) with a more impulsive c wave up.
The internals of the a wave diagonal up were verified. They fit like a glove in both price and time with v < iii < i, and iv < ii in both price and time. Of course wave iv overlaps wave i without traveling below the low of ii or exceeding wave ii in length.
On the larger time scale, wave (iii) is still shorter in price and time than wave (i), and overlap with wave (i) is still be looked for as confirmation that a true diagonal is playing out. All we can say right now is the wave forms are choppy as heck.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I agree with the diagonal... but it's kinda strange to see a leading diagonal inside of an ending diagonal... I don't think I have seen that before.
ReplyDeleteAnyways, a leading diagonal is bullish continuation pattern; so the end of this B wave (???) is probably not in sight?
take care
KAVI
Think we have one more 4 and final push in gold left.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/eBrgq9Y
Gap higher in GLD today, gap lower in SLV....WTF??!!!
ReplyDeleteMonetary risk indicator to risk off.
DeleteNaked short contracts dump..simpler no?
DeleteLooks like I can't link a tweet on here? So posting the contents:
Delete"TF Metals Report
@TFMetals
Total contract open interest for Comex Digital Silver now up nearly 20,000 in just the past four days.
That's 100,000,000 ounces of make-believe pretend "silver", created from nothing and fed to Spec buyers, all done in an effort to manage price and contain it below $18.50."
Virus plunge nearly erased on Shanghai
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wcHYFpES
Cash SPX has 5 non-overlap up move.
ReplyDeleteNew low in Dow cash
ReplyDeleteES futures did get the fifth wave up in the overnight. And now there is a lower low. Time to apply the 'base-channel' technique and see if a second wave holds.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/px3ro
TJ
..now below the Feb 18th low and also a 1.618 extension, currently. A third wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/px3z8
TJ
Thanks! Do the other indices give any clues on which is more likely? (starting (iv)/ ending (iv)/ one more up for (iii)?)
DeleteThe Dow has the needed wave (iv) overlap, but it could be ahead of the other indexes.
Deletewave 1 has been overlapped in the 500 futures.
ReplyDeleteThis is all I see at the moment
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/px6ju
TJ
..earlier diagonal C now possible, down wave is too long in price
Deletehttps://invst.ly/px6lq
TJ
There is an overlap avoided with jan 23 wave high by a thin hair margin..there must he something to it
ReplyDeleteDaily S&P 500 futures slow stoch. remains locked in and price is still above the 18 ma: https://invst.ly/px6xr
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete