This is the second post this weekend. On the way up, a number of analysts cited the "smaller channel" shown below, and have noted the recent breakdown of it.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Smaller Channel |
Fewer analysts (none I have seen) have shown this larger version of a daily channel in which price is already below the mid-channel line.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Larger Potential Channel |
Especially because the X wave triangle above (and noted in previous posts) may have ended at the October 3, low, no particularly special interpretations of this potential channel are claimed. Such a channel might merely be the ((a))-((b))-((c)) channel of the large Ending Contracting Diagonal to end Intermediate (5). If it is not, then it might be a channel for a larger impulse - but we think not due to degree considerations.
But it might not be such a larger impulse. For that reason, if or when price reaches the lower channel boundary, it would be very important to see if support is reached, and how long price remained above the lower channel boundary to test it. We'd note that at 3.150 the lower channel boundary and a line horizontal to the wave labeled extended wave x i would meet and might form a natural target.
We note the daily MACD has turned lower, and neither the MACD nor its signal value is near the zero line.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Gold 5 minute contracting diagonal completed and is now in a retrace or worse if it was ending.
ReplyDeleteGold in fifth wave up.
ReplyDeleteretrace at .786 in time as of now.
DeleteIts getting to be do or die time for gold. If we break the 1575 low than it could be extending the triangle out so last nights high was B.
DeleteIt was die, my thinking is this is c of C in a larger triangle. :(
Deletehttps://imgur.com/jiENaqB
DeleteTJ, if NDX B would reach fib 2.0 of A, would you consider this an outsized B?? At 2.0, we also have (A)=(C)
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pqbv3
ES price back toward hourly gap at 62% retrace. Chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pqfvx
TJ
..gap on futures now closed.
DeleteAll those TSLA shorts must be puking in more ways than one.
ReplyDeleteAfter the gap fill, there is an hourly "spinning top" candle and 'some' downside follow-through. There is also an up channel to keep an eye on.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pqh3a
TJ
ES now back down to 3,245 'daily pivot' (classic calculation), and nearing lower channel boundary.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pqi0r
TJ
ES 5-min (shorter term) .. for a Leading Expanding Diagonal downward, price needs to get under 3,236.50; this would also break the hourly channel downwards.
DeleteChart below ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pqizu
TJ
It's looking like a downward diagonal is busting its trend lines. If the hourly up-sloping channel holds, look for a double-zigzag upward.
Delete..mid-section might also count as an hourly 'triangle', which would allow a simpler a-b-c up, but higher local bar highs are needed.
DeleteHere is one form of the plausible triangle...
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pqk2t
TJ
..there's the higher hourly bar highs; the sideways triangle takes over as the most valid count.
DeleteI would put an upward 'wave counting stop' under 3,240 - which is part of the triangle.
Deletehere's the higher hourly high
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pqkbj
TJ
..a larger .. more valid triangle can be drawn here; with an alternate of just a larger "c" wave in the triangle. This might be a setup for Google's earnings.
DeleteIF it's a triangle, the "c" wave just became longer in price and time.
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