IF, in the chart below, there is a higher high than the wave ((3)) of x5, on the open or after the open, then, just like the Tesla counts we showed in the comments yesterday, it would likely force a count of an Extended Fifth Wave in the ES futures. That is because, wave 5 would become longer in price than wave 3. As the Fibonacci ruler shows, wave 3 is already marginally longer than wave 1, and this is the usual case when the fifth wave extends - so it is not an issue to have an extended fifth wave.
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| ES Futures - Hourly - Watch for Overlap or Higher High |
Within wave x5, if wave ((2)) is a FLAT, then it resolves the potential degree conflict with wave 4 because it's net travel would be less than wave 4, and it would have taken less time. If wave ((2)) is a FLAT, then wave ((4)) is a sharp or triangle yet forming.
Extended fifth waves are typically ending waves, and, then the diagonal construction shown yesterday would not be needed if an extended fifth does, indeed, occur.
The RSI - which is currently diverging - should be watched for further divergence on any new high. And one should make sure than wave ((1)) is not overlapped downward with a critical overlap. The high of the higher bar could be used as a warning.
IF this wave resolves without issue, then the downward retrace has to be examined for extent. It is often the case for extended fifth waves that they are entirely retraced, but for now, we need to take one thing at a time.
Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe
Gold looks like a bull flag on the 5 minute. Still not sure on the larger 30min or 4hour at this time.
ReplyDeleteconsolidating for a few weeks now, higher is probable
DeleteHere's an update of this potential wave. It's holding on by whiskers.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ps14t
TJ
Close above 3300 brings 3400 into play...
ReplyDeleteI can see two possible targets with current price action; one around 3360 and if no turn in ES, a move up to 3415. VIX descent below 15 argues for higer target imho...in addition, sideways consolidation at the highs looks like some kind of fourth wave with one more up yet to come....
DeleteUpper bb at 3362 currently on S&P 500 futures which is becoming over bought and a negative divergence in the making on the AO. https://invst.ly/ps4er
ReplyDeleteBy the futures settlement, the most recent up channel was still being maintained. A ((5)) = ((1)) would make a new high, even given the current location of ((1)) for degree labeling concerns.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ps52x
Overlap did not occur today, and the RSI is currently on vacation. Lol.
TJ
looking good for a reversal as of 8pm EST, thanks for your blog
ReplyDeleteJust an observation:
ReplyDeleteThe A/O looks (to me at least) like the current assumed ((4)) of 5 is actually the 4 of the entire move up we're monitoring. The prior assumed 2-4 TL has been broken. Perhaps Im just misinterpreting. Anyway, fwiw. :o)
Maybe I'm off base, but looks like diagonal down from high today in ES. Looks legit with proper overlap to my eyes.
ReplyDeleteand a nice channel backtest and kiss goodbye.
DeleteHourly S&P 500 futures overlap at 3331: https://invst.ly/psduh
ReplyDeleteCash index maybe this - https://imgur.com/a/mm9d7td
ReplyDeleteNasdaq went about 1.2% over its prior high this week. S&P should lag but do the same so 3360-3390 should be hit within next two weeks
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete